Monday, May 14, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 5/14/2007

Another outstanding week for the Olde Towne Team, putting up a 5-1, while leading the league in runs/game and runs allowed/game.

  • For all the talk about the Yankee offense, how it's the best in the game, far and away better than anyone else's, the Yankees have outscored the Red Sox and Tigers by 2 runs through 36 games. The Boston Red Sox lead the AL in OBP, and are second to Detroit in SLG. Ahead of the Yankees in each of those categories. Boston has the best OPS in the league, the only team over .800. Reports of Boston's offensive demise may have been exaggerated...


  • Last week, I noted that the Red Sox were on pace to score 810 runs, and said that "I'd be willing to bet that they eventually finish with over 870." As of this morning, they're on a pace to score 891 runs.


  • One of the things I love about an 8 game lead on a Monday morning is this - when I sit down next Monday to do the Pythagorean report, I already know that Boston, whatever happens this week, will still be in first place.


  • The Josh Beckett thing is disappointing, but if it was going to happen, this isn't an awful time. They've got the offense starting to warm up, and they've got an 8-game lead. If Beckett has to miss one or two starts, they're well-positioned to survive that.


  • This weekend's Baltimore series ended up being fairly bullpen-dependent. The Orioles' starting pitching was better than Boston's, but the Red Sox bullpen held the Orioles to 4 runs (3 earned) in 12 2/3 IP. The Orioles bullpen, on the other hand, allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in only 8 IP. The Red Sox had more than 3 runners per inning reach base via hit or walk (and a couple more on errors.) Even the Friday night loss featured an effective, grinding offense, one that was just a couple of timely hits (and a couple of good Baltimore defensive plays) from yet another big run-scoring performance. They're really starting to grind and wear down the opposition now. They saw a lot of pitches this week from both the Blue Jay and Oriole pitching staffs.


  • Big series coming up this week, as the Tigers have been just about as hot as Boston for the past couple of weeks, at least record-wise. Their pitching hasn't been anywhere near as good. But they represent better competition than the Sox saw this week. And neither Schilling nor Beckett will face them.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/14/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.5(2)3.47(1)0.699(1)251125110

Oakland4.5(10)3.58(2)0.603(2)22141917-3

New York5.56(1)4.86(8)0.561(3)20161719-3

Detroit5.5(2)4.89(9)0.554(4)201623133

Los Angeles4.32(12)3.84(3)0.553(5)211721170

Cleveland5.29(4)4.86(7)0.539(6)191621142

Minnesota4.51(8)4.16(4)0.537(7)20171819-2

Baltimore4.53(7)4.79(6)0.474(8)182018200

Chicago3.85(14)4.18(5)0.463(9)161818162

Toronto4.51(8)5(10)0.453(10)17201522-2

Seattle4.55(6)5.06(11)0.451(11)151817162

Texas4.76(5)5.54(13)0.431(12)16211522-1

Kansas City3.87(13)5.29(12)0.361(13)14241226-2

Tampa Bay4.35(11)5.97(14)0.359(14)132415222




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston11349

Detroit10458

Cleveland9765

Los Angeles9072

Oakland8676




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston11349

Oakland9567

Detroit9369

Los Angeles9072

Cleveland8973




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston8(1)3.33(1)0.832(1)51510

Oakland7.67(2)3.67(3)0.794(2)5142-1

Los Angeles5(7)3.33(1)0.677(3)42420

Seattle4.14(9)4(4)0.516(4)43430

Minnesota5.17(4)5.33(9)0.485(5)3324-1

Cleveland4.57(8)4.86(7)0.472(6)34340

New York3.71(11)4(4)0.466(7)34340

Detroit6.17(3)6.67(14)0.464(8)33421

Texas5.17(4)5.67(12)0.458(9)3324-1

Baltimore5.14(6)5.86(13)0.441(10)34431

Chicago3.5(12)4.33(6)0.404(11)24422

Kansas City3.83(10)5.5(10)0.341(12)24240

Tampa Bay2.67(13)5.17(8)0.23(13)15150

Toronto2.67(13)5.5(10)0.21(14)15241

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