Monday, May 07, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 5/7/2007

1-1 vs. Oakland. 1-0 vs. Seattle. And 2-1 vs. Minnesota, in the Metrodome where they haven't won a series in 7 years. Any 4-2 week is a good week. Period.

  • It's scary how close that was to a 6-0 week. Tuesday's loss was a win until Jonathan Papelbon blew his first save of they year. Saturday's loss featured Julian Tavarez outpitching Johan Santana, but the Red Sox failing to get a hit in 4-5 different spots that would have given them a lead.


  • The opening at CNNSI this morning talks about Roger Clemens possibly being the guy to "rescue the floundering pinstripers." It's apparently escaped their attention that New York is 5-1 in their last six. They're 5 1/2 games back at the moment, which is 1 game closer to the Red Sox than they were on this date two years ago, another season in which the Yankees won the east. They're only 5 back in the loss column, as opposed to the 7 that they were behind on this date in 2005. The Yankees also have the 3rd-best Pythagorean winning percentage in the AL, and the 2nd best run differential. In other words, reports of their demise are overstated and premature. To say the least.


  • The Red Sox have Toronto and Baltimore this week, the Yankees have Texas and Seattle. It wouldn't be surprising if they were closer than 5 1/2 a week from now. (Yes, those four teams all have similar records right now. Peripherals suggest that the two in the East are significantly better than the two in the West...)


  • And the fact is that Clemens is unlikely to address what has been the Yankees biggest concern. Their biggest problem has not been that starters have been horrible, but that they've pitched short, resulting in over-worked (and horrible) bullpen pitchers. Clemens is unlikely to go more than six innings very often, meaning that there are still a lot of bullpen innings.


  • The Red Sox apparently were willing to spend a lot of money on Clemens, as well. I'd love to have seen him back for the storyline, but I'm skeptical that he has much of an impact on this race.


  • There was talk on the pre-game show yesterday about stranded runners, and once again, people are looking at runners left on base as indicative of an offensive problem. The reason that they're leaving runners on is because they're getting runners on. They're currently 2nd in the AL in OBP, just behind the Yankees. And they've gotten above-expected performance from no one other than backups Alex Cora and Doug Mirabelli, and significantly less than expected from Ramirez, Drew, Lugo and Crisp, and slightly less than expected from Youkilis, Varitek and Pedroia. They're on a pace to score 810 runs - I'd be willing to bet that they eventually finish with over 870.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/7/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5(4)3.5(1)0.658(1)201020100

Detroit5.37(3)4.53(6)0.577(2)171319112

New York6(1)5.07(10)0.577(3)17121415-3

Cleveland5.46(2)4.86(8)0.554(4)161218102

Minnesota4.39(9)3.94(3)0.55(5)17141615-1

Oakland3.87(14)3.57(2)0.537(6)16141515-1

Los Angeles4.19(11)3.94(4)0.528(7)171517150

Toronto4.87(5)4.9(9)0.497(8)15161318-2

Baltimore4.39(9)4.55(7)0.483(9)15161417-1

Chicago3.93(12)4.14(5)0.476(10)131514141

Seattle4.65(8)5.35(12)0.437(11)111513132

Texas4.68(6)5.52(13)0.425(12)131813180

Tampa Bay4.68(6)6.13(14)0.379(13)121914172

Kansas City3.88(13)5.25(11)0.365(14)12201022-2




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston10854

Cleveland10458

Detroit10359

Los Angeles8676

Minnesota8478




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston10755

Detroit9567

Cleveland9270

New York9171

Minnesota8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York7.17(1)3.67(5)0.773(1)51510

Detroit7(2)3.67(5)0.766(2)51601

Boston4.17(7)3.5(2)0.579(3)33421

Cleveland6.33(3)5.33(11)0.578(4)33421

Oakland4.2(6)3.6(4)0.57(5)32320

Minnesota3.5(11)3(1)0.57(5)3324-1

Los Angeles3.43(12)3.57(3)0.481(7)34340

Baltimore4.5(5)4.83(10)0.467(8)3324-1

Texas4(8)4.57(8)0.439(9)34340

Seattle5.17(4)6(13)0.432(10)33330

Chicago3(14)3.8(7)0.394(11)23230

Tampa Bay3.17(13)4.67(9)0.33(12)24331

Kansas City3.71(10)5.57(12)0.323(13)25250

Toronto4(8)6.71(14)0.279(14)2516-1

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