Monday, July 02, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 7/2

Ugh.

Ugh-ly.

1-5 on the week, including two 2-1 losses and a 2-1 win. Over the last three days, they've scored 7 runs against one of the two worst pitching staff's in the AL. That follows the disaster series in Seattle, where they got swept, and the only game of the week in which they scored more than 4 runs resulted in an 8-7 loss.

  • On May 26, the Red Sox beat Texas 7-4 to move to 33-15, 18 games over .500. Yesterday's 2-1 loss drops them to 49-31, 18 games over .500. The team that everyone knew wasn't going to have a prolonged bad stretch because the offense and pitching were too good has now play .500 ball for over a month, going 16-16 over their last 32.


  • And they are 13-16 in their last 29.


  • They're struggling because of the offense. Right now, they're on a pace to score 770 runs. In their last 29 games, over which stretch they've played .448 baseball, the Red Sox have had the 3rd best pitching in the AL. They've also had the second-worst offense. So much for "it's all about the pitching."


  • The pitching over that stretch has been mostly very good. Matuzaka has started 6 games with a 2.72 ERA, and he's 2-3. Tavarez has started 6 with a 3.03 ERA, and he's 2-3. Beckett wasn't good Saturday, but his other 5 starts were. Wakefield's been Wakefield, a couple bad, a couple good. More bad than good in this stretch, with his ERA at 6. Schilling had a great start followed by two bad ones and a trip to the DL. Gabbard was bad in Seattle. But, for the most part, the starters were good, averaging over 6 innings per start with a 4.39 ERA. They had an 8 ER start from Wakefield and 4 6ER starts, but the starters allowed 3 ER or fewer in 18 of the 29 games, and they won 13.


  • The bullpen has been excellent. Almost 3 IP/g with an ERA of 2.76. On the whole, the pitching's been very good.


  • The offense, on the other hand...hasn't. They've outscored the White Sox and no one else. The strange thing is, when you look at what everyone's done over that stretch, there isn't an obvious reason why. No one other than Pedroia's been on fire, but they've had large stretches of the lineup hit fairly well. Pedroia, Youkilis, Ortiz, Ramirez, Drew, Varitek and Crisp have combined to hit .305/.396/.462, which is very good. But they haven't hit a lot of HR, and the lineup has been dysfunctional - they aren't putting innings together at all. Part of the reason is that everyone else, Lowell, Lugo, Mirabelli, the extras and the pitchers, are hitting a combined .188/.244/.315, which is abysmal. And that represents about 35% of the team's at-bats. Because they've played so many games in NL parks, and Lugo's been so bad, and Lowell's struggled since he hurt his wrist, they've always had a near-automatic out to stifle potential innings.


  • The other thing is this - they've had bad timing or bad luck. Using Bill James Runs Created stat, they've actually, as a team, created 138 runs over the last 29 games. But they've only scored 117. So they're failing to take advantage of the actual offense that they're creating. That's unlikely to continue.


  • The astounding thing is, as bad as this stretch of baseball has been, they've lost all of 1 game off their lead in the AL East. They were 11 1/2 up on May 29, they're 10 1/2 up this morning. There's no one in the division playing any better than they are.


  • As bad a stretch as this has been, if they win tonight, they finish the first half of their schedule on a pace for exactly 100 wins.






AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/2/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston4.91(7)3.94(2)0.6(1)483249311

Detroit5.9(1)4.83(10)0.591(2)473347330

Los Angeles5.07(5)4.24(3)0.581(3)483451313

Cleveland5.36(2)4.65(8)0.564(4)463549323

Oakland4.44(11)3.89(1)0.561(5)45364239-3

New York5.25(3)4.66(9)0.555(6)43353741-6

Minnesota4.84(8)4.43(4)0.541(7)43374238-1

Seattle5.06(6)4.87(11)0.518(8)403845335

Toronto4.69(10)4.59(6)0.51(9)41403942-2

Baltimore4.44(11)4.56(5)0.489(10)39413545-4

Texas5.15(4)5.63(13)0.459(11)37443447-3

Kansas City4.35(13)5.01(12)0.436(12)36463448-2

Chicago3.88(14)4.63(7)0.421(13)334535432

Tampa Bay4.74(9)5.95(14)0.397(14)324833471




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Los Angeles10161

Boston9963

Cleveland9864

Detroit9567

Seattle9369




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9864

Los Angeles9765

Detroit9567

Cleveland9567

Seattle8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Kansas City4.67(6)2.33(1)0.78(1)5142-1

Seattle5.67(2)3.17(3)0.744(2)42602

Chicago4(8)2.71(2)0.67(3)52611

Minnesota5.43(3)3.71(5)0.667(4)5243-1

Oakland6(1)4.43(7)0.635(5)4334-1

Texas4.5(7)3.5(4)0.613(6)42420

Cleveland5.29(4)4.57(9)0.566(7)43612

Baltimore4.83(5)4.33(6)0.55(8)33320

Toronto3.71(10)4.86(10)0.38(9)3425-1

Boston3.17(12)4.5(8)0.345(10)2415-1

Los Angeles3.83(9)5.67(13)0.328(11)24240

Detroit3.5(11)6.33(14)0.253(12)24240

New York2.83(13)5.33(12)0.239(13)15140

Tampa Bay2.57(14)4.86(10)0.238(14)2507-2

Labels: , , ,

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link