Monday Pythagorean - 8/6

Another 4-2 week. This time, the Yankees made up a game by going 5-1. The lead stands at 7 with 51 left to play. The magic number is 45.

• Two weeks ago, I talked about the schedule, and how they were entering a 3-week span which had the Red Sox on the road for 16 of 19 against the iron of the AL, while the Yankees were playing the Little Sisters of the Poor. 2/3 of the way through that stretch, the lead has dropped by 1/2 game. I said that they needed to "find a way to keep the lead at 5 or more by the end of August 12." If they go 4-2 this week, that guarantees they'll have done it, regardless of what the Yankees do.



• Schilling's back tonight, and, from all indications, as good as new. That's a boost. They got great work from Kason Gabbard, but they managed to sell high, and they're much better off with a healthy Schilling in that spot.



• I also pointed out two weeks ago that they were still scoring runs, just not efficiently using them, and that it was unlikely to continue. Since then, they're 9-4, matching their Pythagorean of 9-4. After losing 9-of-10 in one-run games, they've won 3-of-4.



• When people were writing off the Yankees back in May, I kept saying that it was a mistake.
  
  

  It's never over until it's over (ask the 2004 Yankees about that) and this isn't over, and won't be for a while. The Yankees have got too much talent to continue to flounder this way.
  
  

  5/21/2007

  
  

  Why am I still focused on the Yankees, when they're behind Baltimore and Toronto? Beyond the fact that they are the Yankees, I still believe them to be the 2nd best team in the division."
  
  

  5/28/2007

  
  

  But they're still a very good team, as I pointed out while the yahoos were declaring the race over three weeks ago. It wasn't over then, and it's not over now."
  
  

  6/11/2007

  
  

  
  Right now, New York is tied with Seattle, 1/2 game behind Wild-Card leader Detroit, and has to be considered heavy favorites to make the post-season yet again. I don't think that they'll catch Boston, but I do think that Boston and New York are both playing October baseball again this year.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/6/2007

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Boston	5.17	(3)	3.96	(1)	0.619	(1)	69	42	68	43	-1
New York	5.95	(1)	4.59	(7)	0.616	(2)	68	43	61	50	-7
Detroit	5.68	(2)	4.99	(10)	0.559	(3)	61	49	61	49	0
Los Angeles	5.04	(5)	4.46	(5)	0.555	(4)	61	49	64	46	3
Cleveland	5.14	(4)	4.65	(8)	0.545	(5)	61	50	62	49	1
Toronto	4.65	(8)	4.33	(3)	0.533	(6)	59	51	56	54	-3
Minnesota	4.61	(11)	4.43	(4)	0.518	(7)	57	53	57	53	0
Baltimore	4.57	(12)	4.47	(6)	0.51	(8)	56	54	52	58	-4
Oakland	4.27	(14)	4.2	(2)	0.508	(9)	57	55	53	59	-4
Seattle	4.83	(6)	4.85	(9)	0.497	(10)	54	55	60	49	6
Kansas City	4.65	(8)	5.01	(11)	0.466	(11)	51	59	48	62	-3
Texas	4.8	(7)	5.4	(13)	0.447	(12)	50	61	48	63	-2
Chicago	4.32	(13)	5.17	(12)	0.419	(13)	46	65	52	59	6
Tampa Bay	4.65	(8)	6.2	(14)	0.372	(14)	41	69	42	68	1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Boston	99	63
Los Angeles	94	68
Detroit	90	72
Cleveland	90	72
New York	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Boston	100	62
Los Angeles	93	69
New York	92	70
Detroit	90	72
Cleveland	90	72

Standings for the week

						ProjectedActual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
New York	10.67	(1)	5.17	(10)	0.79	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Toronto	4.5	(5)	3.5	(3)	0.613	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Boston	5.33	(3)	4.17	(7)	0.611	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
Oakland	4.14	(7)	3.57	(4)	0.567	(4)	4	3	4	3	0
Los Angeles	4.29	(6)	3.86	(5)	0.548	(5)	4	3	3	4	-1
Minnesota	2.83	(14)	2.67	(1)	0.528	(6)	3	3	4	2	1
Cleveland	3.17	(13)	3	(2)	0.525	(7)	3	3	2	4	-1
Baltimore	4.83	(4)	4.67	(8)	0.516	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Tampa Bay	4	(8)	4	(6)	0.5	(9)	3	3	3	3	0
Chicago	5.67	(2)	7.17	(14)	0.394	(10)	2	4	4	2	2
Texas	3.67	(10)	5.17	(10)	0.348	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
Detroit	3.33	(12)	4.83	(9)	0.336	(12)	2	4	1	5	-1
Seattle	3.67	(10)	5.33	(12)	0.335	(13)	2	4	3	3	1
Kansas City	3.83	(9)	7	(13)	0.249	(14)	1	5	1	5	0