Monday, August 06, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 8/6

Another 4-2 week. This time, the Yankees made up a game by going 5-1. The lead stands at 7 with 51 left to play. The magic number is 45.

  • Two weeks ago, I talked about the schedule, and how they were entering a 3-week span which had the Red Sox on the road for 16 of 19 against the iron of the AL, while the Yankees were playing the Little Sisters of the Poor. 2/3 of the way through that stretch, the lead has dropped by 1/2 game. I said that they needed to "find a way to keep the lead at 5 or more by the end of August 12." If they go 4-2 this week, that guarantees they'll have done it, regardless of what the Yankees do.


  • Schilling's back tonight, and, from all indications, as good as new. That's a boost. They got great work from Kason Gabbard, but they managed to sell high, and they're much better off with a healthy Schilling in that spot.


  • I also pointed out two weeks ago that they were still scoring runs, just not efficiently using them, and that it was unlikely to continue. Since then, they're 9-4, matching their Pythagorean of 9-4. After losing 9-of-10 in one-run games, they've won 3-of-4.


  • When people were writing off the Yankees back in May, I kept saying that it was a mistake.

    It's never over until it's over (ask the 2004 Yankees about that) and this isn't over, and won't be for a while. The Yankees have got too much talent to continue to flounder this way.

    5/21/2007

    Why am I still focused on the Yankees, when they're behind Baltimore and Toronto? Beyond the fact that they are the Yankees, I still believe them to be the 2nd best team in the division."

    5/28/2007

    But they're still a very good team, as I pointed out while the yahoos were declaring the race over three weeks ago. It wasn't over then, and it's not over now."

    6/11/2007


    Right now, New York is tied with Seattle, 1/2 game behind Wild-Card leader Detroit, and has to be considered heavy favorites to make the post-season yet again. I don't think that they'll catch Boston, but I do think that Boston and New York are both playing October baseball again this year.






AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/6/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.17(3)3.96(1)0.619(1)69426843-1

New York5.95(1)4.59(7)0.616(2)68436150-7

Detroit5.68(2)4.99(10)0.559(3)614961490

Los Angeles5.04(5)4.46(5)0.555(4)614964463

Cleveland5.14(4)4.65(8)0.545(5)615062491

Toronto4.65(8)4.33(3)0.533(6)59515654-3

Minnesota4.61(11)4.43(4)0.518(7)575357530

Baltimore4.57(12)4.47(6)0.51(8)56545258-4

Oakland4.27(14)4.2(2)0.508(9)57555359-4

Seattle4.83(6)4.85(9)0.497(10)545560496

Kansas City4.65(8)5.01(11)0.466(11)51594862-3

Texas4.8(7)5.4(13)0.447(12)50614863-2

Chicago4.32(13)5.17(12)0.419(13)466552596

Tampa Bay4.65(8)6.2(14)0.372(14)416942681




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9963

Los Angeles9468

Detroit9072

Cleveland9072

New York8973




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston10062

Los Angeles9369

New York9270

Detroit9072

Cleveland9072




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York10.67(1)5.17(10)0.79(1)51510

Toronto4.5(5)3.5(3)0.613(2)42420

Boston5.33(3)4.17(7)0.611(3)42420

Oakland4.14(7)3.57(4)0.567(4)43430

Los Angeles4.29(6)3.86(5)0.548(5)4334-1

Minnesota2.83(14)2.67(1)0.528(6)33421

Cleveland3.17(13)3(2)0.525(7)3324-1

Baltimore4.83(4)4.67(8)0.516(8)33330

Tampa Bay4(8)4(6)0.5(9)33330

Chicago5.67(2)7.17(14)0.394(10)24422

Texas3.67(10)5.17(10)0.348(11)24240

Detroit3.33(12)4.83(9)0.336(12)2415-1

Seattle3.67(10)5.33(12)0.335(13)24331

Kansas City3.83(9)7(13)0.249(14)15150

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