Monday, August 13, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 8/13

Ugh.

Some weeks, these little reports are a lot more fun than others. This week falls into that category of "others."

I say again, ugh.

2-4 on the week, as the Yankee rampage continues. The lead, seven when the week started, is down to four.

Ugh-ly...


  • The most frustrating part of the lost weekend in Baltimore is the way that they lost those two games. All season long, the bullpen has been one of the real strengths of the team. They've absolutely shut people down. Now, with the acquisition of Eric Gagne at the trade deadline, they've gone ahead and strengthened it. Theoretically. The fact is, they almost certainly win both of those games if they hadn't made the trade. The big mid-season trade to put them over the top has directly cost them two games in the standings in the last three days.


  • Meanwhile, that team in the Bronx has continued to thrash the lesser teams, and is now moving on to beating up better teams that are struggling. Cleveland scored 6 runs in 3 days against the Yankees. Great New York pitching? Well, they'd only scored 19 in the previous 6 games, one of which went 13 innings, so they were already cold. And pathetic.


  • Once again, we listened to a game where Joe Castiglione and Dave O'Brien talked about how it felt more comfortable than it was, how the Red Sox had lots of base-runners but not much to show for them. They continue to significantly underperform their statistics. Using Bill James' Runs Created formula, they've created 636 runs so far, but only scored 603. The Yankees have created 698 and scored 700. They've definitely done a better job reaching base than scoring.


  • Despite the ugliness of the weekend, and the willingness of some to throw their hands up in despair, the race isn't over, and they haven't lost it. They're coming off their toughest stretch of the season, with 16 of the last 19 on the road, and the schedule is definitely in their favor now. They just have to play better.


  • It doesn't help, of course, that now they finally get a series against the Devil Rays and the Ray's best two pitchers are matched up against the weak spots in the Boston rotation. Would anyone be shocked to see them shut down by Shields tonight or Kazmir tomorrow? Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?

    I didn't think so...


  • For the first time since May, they need to actually win some games this week to maintain first place.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/13/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York5.98(1)4.59(6)0.619(1)72456651-6

Boston5.15(3)4.05(1)0.608(2)71467047-1

Los Angeles5.12(4)4.41(4)0.568(3)665069473

Detroit5.71(2)5.11(11)0.55(4)645365521

Toronto4.66(9)4.31(2)0.535(5)62545957-3

Cleveland5.03(5)4.66(8)0.534(6)635565532

Seattle4.98(6)4.83(9)0.515(7)595665506

Oakland4.43(13)4.36(3)0.508(8)60585662-4

Minnesota4.49(12)4.45(5)0.503(9)59585859-1

Baltimore4.59(10)4.63(7)0.496(10)58585462-4

Kansas City4.55(11)4.91(10)0.465(11)54625165-3

Texas4.85(7)5.37(13)0.453(12)53645166-2

Chicago4.3(14)5.15(12)0.418(13)496854635

Tampa Bay4.66(8)6.11(14)0.378(14)447345721




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9765

Los Angeles9666

Seattle9270

New York9171

Detroit9072




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9765

Los Angeles9567

New York9468

Detroit9072

Cleveland8973




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Los Angeles6.67(3)3.5(2)0.765(1)51510

Seattle7.83(1)4.33(4)0.747(2)42511

New York6.67(3)4.5(5)0.672(3)42511

Texas5.67(6)4.83(7)0.572(4)33330

Toronto4.67(10)4(3)0.57(5)33330

Oakland7.5(2)7.33(13)0.51(6)33330

Tampa Bay4.71(9)4.71(6)0.5(7)4334-1

Detroit6.14(5)7(12)0.441(8)34431

Boston4.83(7)5.67(11)0.428(9)3324-1

Kansas City2.67(13)3.17(1)0.422(10)33330

Chicago3.83(11)4.83(7)0.396(11)24240

Cleveland3.29(12)4.86(9)0.328(12)25341

Baltimore4.83(7)7.5(14)0.309(13)24240

Minnesota2.57(14)4.86(9)0.238(14)2516-1

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