Red Sox go 5-2, Yankees go 5-1. The lead goes from 6 to 5 1/2, the magic number drops from 20 to 14.
- There is one big concern in Red Sox nation right now. Daisuke Matsuzaka's last three starts have seen him allow 20 earned runs in just 14 1/3 innings. Has the league figured him out? Has he got an injury? Is he just worn down? Whatever has caused it, this is a major problem if they don't get him straightened out. He won't keep them from making the play-offs (the magic number to eliminate Detroit and Seattle is 10 with 18 to play) but if he can't pitch effectively, their odds of winning in the post-season drop significantly.
- This coming weekend, New York travels to Boston for the last 3 of this season's head-to-head games. In the regular season. A Yankee sweep would put the division in play, a Red Sox sweep would effectively end it. Even 2-of-3 by the Sox would probably put it out of reach. We'll know, a week from now, whether the division race is essentially over, or if we have a two-week sprint for the crown.
- Three up against the Devil Rays. Once again, they get Kazmir. The best pitcher they've got, does he ever miss a series against Boston? Most of the times, teams play 3 game series, so there's about a 60% chance of seeing a team's best pitcher in any given series. Tonight's game will be Kazmir's fifth start against Boston this year. They hit him last time - the two appearances before that, he held them scoreless for 6. It would be nice to sweep this series, guaranteeing that the lead is at least 5 1/2 when the Yankees come in on Friday, but I'm not willing to predict it.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/10/2007
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| Boston | 5.32 | (3) | 4.01 | (1) | 0.626 | (1) | 90 | 54 | 87 | 57 | -3
| | New York | 5.9 | (1) | 4.79 | (7) | 0.594 | (2) | 85 | 58 | 81 | 62 | -4
| | Los Angeles | 5.13 | (4) | 4.5 | (4) | 0.56 | (3) | 80 | 63 | 84 | 59 | 4
| | Cleveland | 5.01 | (6) | 4.45 | (3) | 0.555 | (4) | 79 | 64 | 83 | 60 | 4
| | Detroit | 5.54 | (2) | 5.05 | (9) | 0.542 | (5) | 78 | 65 | 77 | 66 | -1
| | Toronto | 4.56 | (10) | 4.24 | (2) | 0.534 | (6) | 76 | 66 | 72 | 70 | -4
| | Minnesota | 4.54 | (12) | 4.5 | (4) | 0.504 | (7) | 72 | 71 | 70 | 73 | -2
| | Oakland | 4.49 | (13) | 4.57 | (6) | 0.492 | (8) | 71 | 73 | 69 | 75 | -2
| | Seattle | 4.96 | (7) | 5.05 | (10) | 0.492 | (9) | 69 | 72 | 75 | 66 | 6
| | Texas | 5.02 | (5) | 5.2 | (12) | 0.484 | (10) | 69 | 73 | 68 | 74 | -1
| | Kansas City | 4.54 | (11) | 4.8 | (8) | 0.475 | (11) | 67 | 75 | 62 | 80 | -5
| | Baltimore | 4.62 | (9) | 5.13 | (11) | 0.452 | (12) | 64 | 78 | 61 | 81 | -3
| | Tampa Bay | 4.87 | (8) | 5.87 | (14) | 0.415 | (13) | 59 | 84 | 60 | 83 | 1
| | Chicago | 4.21 | (14) | 5.31 | (13) | 0.395 | (14) | 56 | 87 | 61 | 82 | 5
| |
|---|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Boston | 98 | 64
|
| Los Angeles | 95 | 67
|
| Cleveland | 94 | 68
|
| New York | 92 | 70
|
| Detroit | 87 | 75
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Boston | 98 | 64
|
| Los Angeles | 95 | 67
|
| Cleveland | 94 | 68
|
| New York | 92 | 70
|
| Detroit | 87 | 75
|
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | ProjectedActual
| | R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck
|
|---|
| New York | 7.17 | (1) | 3.67 | (2) | 0.773 | (1) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0
| | Cleveland | 5 | (9) | 3.29 | (1) | 0.683 | (2) | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0
| | Tampa Bay | 6.67 | (2) | 5 | (6) | 0.629 | (3) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0
| | Detroit | 5.17 | (7) | 4.5 | (4) | 0.563 | (4) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1
| | Texas | 6.17 | (3) | 5.5 | (9) | 0.552 | (5) | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2
| | Boston | 5.86 | (4) | 5.43 | (8) | 0.535 | (6) | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1
| | Los Angeles | 4.43 | (14) | 4.43 | (3) | 0.5 | (7) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0
| | Toronto | 5.33 | (6) | 5.33 | (7) | 0.5 | (7) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1
| | Chicago | 4.5 | (13) | 4.67 | (5) | 0.483 | (9) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0
| | Kansas City | 4.67 | (12) | 5.5 | (9) | 0.425 | (10) | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2
| | Oakland | 4.83 | (10) | 6.5 | (11) | 0.368 | (11) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1
| | Minnesota | 4.83 | (10) | 6.5 | (11) | 0.368 | (11) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1
| | Baltimore | 5.14 | (8) | 7 | (13) | 0.363 | (13) | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1
| | Seattle | 5.5 | (5) | 8 | (14) | 0.335 | (14) | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0
| |
|---|
Labels: 2007, baseball, magic number, pythagorean, Red Sox
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