Monday, September 10, 2007

Monday Pythagorean - 9/10

Red Sox go 5-2, Yankees go 5-1. The lead goes from 6 to 5 1/2, the magic number drops from 20 to 14.

  • There is one big concern in Red Sox nation right now. Daisuke Matsuzaka's last three starts have seen him allow 20 earned runs in just 14 1/3 innings. Has the league figured him out? Has he got an injury? Is he just worn down? Whatever has caused it, this is a major problem if they don't get him straightened out. He won't keep them from making the play-offs (the magic number to eliminate Detroit and Seattle is 10 with 18 to play) but if he can't pitch effectively, their odds of winning in the post-season drop significantly.


  • This coming weekend, New York travels to Boston for the last 3 of this season's head-to-head games. In the regular season. A Yankee sweep would put the division in play, a Red Sox sweep would effectively end it. Even 2-of-3 by the Sox would probably put it out of reach. We'll know, a week from now, whether the division race is essentially over, or if we have a two-week sprint for the crown.


  • Three up against the Devil Rays. Once again, they get Kazmir. The best pitcher they've got, does he ever miss a series against Boston? Most of the times, teams play 3 game series, so there's about a 60% chance of seeing a team's best pitcher in any given series. Tonight's game will be Kazmir's fifth start against Boston this year. They hit him last time - the two appearances before that, he held them scoreless for 6. It would be nice to sweep this series, guaranteeing that the lead is at least 5 1/2 when the Yankees come in on Friday, but I'm not willing to predict it.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/10/2007
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.32(3)4.01(1)0.626(1)90548757-3

New York5.9(1)4.79(7)0.594(2)85588162-4

Los Angeles5.13(4)4.5(4)0.56(3)806384594

Cleveland5.01(6)4.45(3)0.555(4)796483604

Detroit5.54(2)5.05(9)0.542(5)78657766-1

Toronto4.56(10)4.24(2)0.534(6)76667270-4

Minnesota4.54(12)4.5(4)0.504(7)72717073-2

Oakland4.49(13)4.57(6)0.492(8)71736975-2

Seattle4.96(7)5.05(10)0.492(9)697275666

Texas5.02(5)5.2(12)0.484(10)69736874-1

Kansas City4.54(11)4.8(8)0.475(11)67756280-5

Baltimore4.62(9)5.13(11)0.452(12)64786181-3

Tampa Bay4.87(8)5.87(14)0.415(13)598460831

Chicago4.21(14)5.31(13)0.395(14)568761825




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9864

Los Angeles9567

Cleveland9468

New York9270

Detroit8775




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9864

Los Angeles9567

Cleveland9468

New York9270

Detroit8775




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York7.17(1)3.67(2)0.773(1)51510

Cleveland5(9)3.29(1)0.683(2)52520

Tampa Bay6.67(2)5(6)0.629(3)42420

Detroit5.17(7)4.5(4)0.563(4)33421

Texas6.17(3)5.5(9)0.552(5)33512

Boston5.86(4)5.43(8)0.535(6)43521

Los Angeles4.43(14)4.43(3)0.5(7)43430

Toronto5.33(6)5.33(7)0.5(7)3324-1

Chicago4.5(13)4.67(5)0.483(9)33330

Kansas City4.67(12)5.5(9)0.425(10)3315-2

Oakland4.83(10)6.5(11)0.368(11)2415-1

Minnesota4.83(10)6.5(11)0.368(11)2415-1

Baltimore5.14(8)7(13)0.363(13)3425-1

Seattle5.5(5)8(14)0.335(14)24240

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