Thursday, September 06, 2007

NFL picks, week 1

Having decided that what the world needs, more than anything else (1), is another NFL picks column filled with witticisms (2), written by someone who a) isn't witty (3) and b) doesn't know anything about the NFL (4), I proudly (5) present the following:

Thursday night:
New Orleans (+6) at Indianapolis - Saints vs. Sinners Colts - That was a first, right? No one's ever started their New Orleans commentary that way, I bet. Hey, I warned you up front that this would be lame - I'm not giving you're money back. Anyway, Indianapolis will raise their Super Bowl flag, and immediately start throwing the ball. New Orleans will try to keep the Colts offense by running, but it won't work out that way - Indianapolis won't stop the run well enough to sustain the Saints' drives. Reggie Bush breaks off at least 5 runs of more than 30 yards, and the Saints win a tight, defensive struggle (both defenses will struggle) 45-42.
Philadelphia (-2 1/2) at Green Bay - Here's the prop bet that I want to see - which is higher, the number of series for McNabb before going down with an injury, or interceptions thrown by Favre? I'm betting (6) the latter, and the Eagles win.
Kansas City at Houston (-3) - Houston's got a new QB. While that generally takes acclimation time, it's a better situation to be in than the Chiefs', who don't have one at all. Texans win.
Denver at Buffalo (+3 1/2) - I don't like Buffalo. I don't like Denver even more.
Pittsburgh (-3 1/2) at Cleveland - I like Romeo Crennel. I don't really dislike the Cleveland Browns. I really dislike the Pittsburgh Steelers. But they're the better team, right now.
Carolina at St. Louis (pick 'em) - Carolina was last year's trendy Super Bowl pick in many quarters. Carolina is this year's trendy Super Bowl pick in many quarters. They didn't win it last year, they won't win it this year. Rams.
Atlanta (+3) at Minnesota - New coach. New quarterback. Turmoil swirling as the franchise superstar awaits his sentencing in 3 months. There's absolutely no reason to pick Atlanta here. Given that I'm picking the Falcons, you'd think that the next sentence would start with "But..." or "What many are missing..." Nope. There's no reason to pick Atlanta here.
New England (-7) at NY Jets - No Seymour. No Harrison. Moss hasn't played in a month. Last year's leading receiver was cut this week and signed by the opposition. No one knows Belichick as well as Mangini. Yadda yadda yadda. I always pick the Patriots, but I'd pick them this week even if I didn't always pick them. This is a far better team, and they'll win comfortably. Not a blowout, and they may not cover, but they'll win comfortably in a game that never feels as close as it looks on the scoreboard.
Miami at Washington (-2 1/2) - Generally, I'll be picking both of these teams to lose. As that's not an option this week, I'll go with the 'Skins, since they've at least got a coach.
Tennessee (+7) at Jacksonville - Jacksonville's not good enough to be a seven-point favorite over anyone.
Chicago at San Diego (-6) - Here's the question - is San Diego suffering enough from the coaching chaos to fall to 0-2 after they lose to New England next week? I'm thinking not. (I expect lots of "irresistible force vs. immovable object" commentary on this game, but not from me, no sir.) Therefore, I must think that San Diego wins this one handily enough. Compelling logic, n'est-ce pas?
Tampa Bay at Seattle (-7) - Holmgren wins this round in the battle of overrated coaches.
Detroit (+1 1/2) at Oakland - All the points in this game will be scored with Oakland's defense and Detroit's offense on the field. Can the Oakland 'D' outscore the Detroit 'O'? Not inconceivable, but not the way to bet.
Sunday night:
NY Giants (+7) at Dallas - Four hours after the overrated coaches battle in Seattle, the overrated quarterbacks take the field in Dallas. How brilliant does that draft day trade for Eli Manning look for the Giants right now? That's right, it doesn't. So why am I picking them? Tom Coughlin over Wade Phillips.
Monday night:
Baltimore at Cincinnati (-3) - Cincinnati makes it through the opening weekend with not a single player arrested, and celebrates by beating the Ravens in a low-scoring affair, 17-13.
Arizona at San Francisco (-3) - Some year, Arizona will start off 1-0. Not this one.

1 - There are, obviously, a great many things that the world needs more. But it is one of the top 20 (maybe 30) things that the world needed that I was capable of producing in 25 minutes at lunch-time today.
2 - "Witticisms" is a euphemism here for "comments that are intended to be funny, but are mostly, instead, cringe-inducingly lame."
3 - Well, there was that one time in high school...
4 - But I can read the schedule, and find out where the games are being played.
5 - This is a product of the self-esteem movement. Yes, you too can be "proud" of unfunny, lame commentary. At the very least, I'm not being paid for this. Compare and contrast with what shows up in your newspaper every Friday, produced by "professional" journalists.
6 - Figuratively - I have no literal money on any of these games.

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