Baseball Crank's AL East EWSL

The Baseball Crank has his AL East EWSL (Established Wins Shares Level) report up for the AL East, and, like mine, his numbers find the Red Sox to be a very strong team.

This Red Sox team doesn't look offensively strong enough to me to be a real 100-win team, but they and the Yankees are doubtless the strongest teams in the game by a healthy margin, in Boston's case due to their depth, pitching and defense. The rotation has some question marks, especially Matsuzaka and the durability of Lackey, but as with the rest of the roster there are fallbacks. Maybe the biggest vulnerable keystone is Mike Cameron, the oldest guy in the starting lineup and a key to improving Boston's outfield defense; a Drew-Ellsbury-Hermida outfield is not nearly as solid afield.

Click the link, read it all. The bottom line is that his numbers are saying about the same thing mine did. He's actually got Boston five games ahead of New York, though I don't think that's actually a prediction. As I quoted, he thinks the numbers are overestimating, a little bit, how strong they are, which sounds like he's got them in the high 90s, as do I.

2010 Red Sox Projections - Conclusion and projected record

This is post thirteen in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - Overall and conclusion

The following table shows the at-bats projected per player.

Red Sox 2010 projected at-bats

Player	AB
Jacoby Ellsbury	633
Dustin Pedrioa	632
Kevin Youkilis	569
Victor Martinez	552
Adrian Beltre	544
David Ortiz	518
Mike Cameron	500
Marco Scutaro	474
J.D. Drew	433
Jeremy Hermida	246
Jason Varitek	145
Jed Lowrie	118
Bill Hall	83

That seems like a pretty reasonable starting point.

Red Sox 2010 projected at-bats

Player	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
2009	5453	857	1478	330	25	211	811	649	38	70	1094	126	39	16	51	135	.271	.353	.457	.810	877.8	5.20
2010 (marcel)	5447	823	1489	311	20	175	750	628	31	48	1015	118	29	15	42	114	.273	.351	.434	.785	841.1	5.06
2010 (PECOTA)	5440	826	1498	314	18	179	761	626	31	48	976	110	32	15	42	114	.275	.353	.438	.791	848.4	5.12

NOTE: The 2009 runs numbers doesn't match the 2009 Red Sox runs scored because of pinch-hitting, pinch-running and pitchers.

The 2009 Red Sox generated 883 Runs Created and scored 872 actual runs. Marcel and PECOTA suggest that the Red Sox will create 841 and 848 runs, respectively. So the offseason changes that were made will probably result in the Red Sox scoring 35-45 fewer runs than the 2009 team scored.


Projected Runs Scored: 845
2009 Runs scored: 872
Offensive downgrade: 27 runs


Marcel has the starters allowing 490 runs, with the bullpen allowing another 226, for a total of 716 runs allowed.

PECOTA has the starters allowing 443 runs, with the bullpen allowing another 209, for a total of 652 runs allowed.

Neither of those takes into account the defensive upgrade, which looks to be 20-30 runs independent of the pitching performance. I think that the PECOTA numbers here are likelier than the marcel numbers, though there are bound to be some bumps along the way. The systems project a 20-80 run improvement in runs allowed. I'm going towards the upper end of that projection.

Projected Runs allowed: 660
2009 Runs allowed: 736
Pitching/Defensive upgrade: 76 runs


So, what do the 2010 Red Sox look like as they head to Spring Training?

Red Sox 2010 - Projected Record

	R	RA	Pyth WP	W	L
marcel	841	716	0.573	93	69
PECOTA	848	652	0.618	100	62
Lyford	845	660	0.611	99	63

They look to me like a 97-100 win team, a team that's significantly upgraded its run prevention capabilities over the winter at the cost of a smaller offensive downgrade.

Bottom Line: Boston wins 98, goes to the post-season again.



Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF
DH
Starters
Relievers

2010 Red Sox Projections - Relievers

This is post twelve in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.


2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - Relief Pitchers:
2009 - Jonathan Papelbon, Hidecki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Justin Masterson, Billy Wagner
2010 - Jonathan Papelbon, Hidecki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Tim Wakefield


The bullpen was a strength of the 2009 team, and it is likely to be again in 2010. Obviously, a dominant pitcher at the back of the bullpen, as the Red Sox have with Jonathan Papelbon, is an asset. In addition, they have a bunch of late-inning guys who can "miss bats," strikeout pitchers, led by Daniel Bard.

The projections for 2010 performance:

Red Sox 2010 projected relievers (marcel)

	GS	CG	GF	W	L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
Jonathan Papelbon				3	3	29	66	58	25	22	6	20	67	2	0	1	3.00	1.18	9.14	3.35
Ramon Ramirez				5	3	0	67	62	30	27	6	28	55	2	1	3	3.63	1.34	7.39	1.96
Hideki Okajima				4	2	1	62	58	26	25	8	22	52	2	0	1	3.63	1.29	7.55	2.36
Daniel Bard				3	2	1	50	46	25	22	6	19	48	2	0	2	3.96	1.30	8.64	2.53
Manny Delcarmen				3	2	1	62	59	30	28	6	27	52	3	0	1	4.06	1.39	7.55	1.93
Tim Wakefield				10	8	0	143	147	78	74	18	54	88	8	0	7	4.66	1.41	5.54	1.63
Total	0	0	0	28	20	32	450	430	214	198	50	170	362	19	1	15	3.96	1.33	7.24	2.13

Red Sox 2010 projected relievers (PECOTA)

	GS	CG	GF	W	L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
Daniel Bard	5			4	2	0	55	46	27	26	6	36	49	0	0	0	4.25	1.48	7.99	1.38
Manny Delcarmen	0			4	2	0	55	48	23	22	5	24	43	0	0	0	3.60	1.30	7.05	1.83
Hideki Okajima	0			4	2	2	55	48	22	21	6	19	46	0	0	0	3.44	1.21	7.49	2.40
Jonathan Papelbon	0			4	2	43	55	40	16	15	4	17	58	0	0	0	2.45	1.03	9.43	3.47
Ramon Ramirez	0			4	2	2	55	46	23	22	5	25	45	0	0	0	3.60	1.28	7.37	1.83
Tim Wakefield	18			5	5	0	98	101	53	50	13	38	55	0	0	0	4.60	1.43	5.03	1.43
	23	0	0	25	15	47	373	329	164	156	39	159	296	0	0	0	3.77	1.30	7.12	1.87

And bullpen numbers vs. last year's numbers:

Red Sox 2010 bullpen

	GS	CG	GF	W	L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
2009 relievers	0	0	154	27	17	41	479	461	221	202	51	211	439	29	4	16	3.80	1.40	8.25	2.08
2010 (marcel)	0	0	0	28	20	32	450	430	214	198	50	170	362	19	1	15	3.96	1.33	7.24	2.13
2010 (PECOTA)	23	0	0	26	15	47	373	329	164	156	39	158	295	0	0	0	3.77	1.30	7.12	1.87

Marcel sees a slight degradation, whil PECOTA sees a slight improvement. But both sets of numbers are pretty comparable.

As noted in the starters entry, I think that the Red Sox are going to get about 975 innings from their starters this year, leaving about 465 innings for the bullpen. In those 465 innings, the marcel projections work out to about 226 runs allowed by the bullpen, the PECOTA projections work out to about 209 runs.


Bottom line: The bullpen run performance should be assisted by the improved defense, and further aided by the increased workload handled by the starters. On the other hand, it's basically the same set of pitchers, and there's no reason to expect as significant upgrade or degrade in the inherent pitching performance. Net comparable


Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF
DH
Starters

2010 Red Sox Projections - Starters

This is post eleven in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - Starting Pitchers:
2009 - Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz
2010 - Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz

During the 2008-2009 offseason, a couple things happened that ended up inflating the Red Sox runs allowed totals in 2009. They added two veteran pitchers, Brad Penny and John Smoltz, on short-term, mid-money contracts. And the World Baseball Classic tournament was played for the second time.

Jon Lester and Josh Beckett both started slowly, and then, early in May, started pitching like aces. Beckett had a poor stretch in late-August and September, but Lester was one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last five months of the season. Lester, in particular, seemed to be hurt by the defense early, and he "adjusted" to that weakness, raising his strike out rates. Beckett seemed to have an issue with adjusting to a new catcher, as his slump coincided with Victor Martinez' arrival, but whether that's causation or just correlation is unknowable. He did seem to have adjusted by the end of the season.

Penny threw some decent games, but a lot of not-so-decent ones as well, before getting cut in August. The Smoltz experiment didn't work that well, as he got hit early and often. He ended up giving up 37 runs in 40 innings over 8 starts, including 5+ runs in six of the eight before he was cut.

The World Baseball Classic ended up costing them most of the Daisuke Matsuzaka's season. He is far more emotionally invested in that tournament than the Red Sox team is, overthrew early, didn't go through a proper spring training, and end up starting the season hurt and not in condition for the 162 game season. We cannot ignore that 2009 happened, but sometimes the ancillary factors are glaring. Everyone agrees that Matsuzaka was injured and out of shape, and there's no reason to expect that his early 2009 performance tells us anything particularly useful, or more useful than his late 2009 performance, about his potential 2010 performance.

Tim Wakefield pitched pretty well through the first half of the season, earning (well, not really earning, but being selected for) a spot on the 2009 AL All Star team. Due to injuries, however, he made only four generally ineffective starts after the All Star break. Clay Buchholz demonstrated that he's ready to pitch consistently in the Major Leagues.

Here are the 2009 numbers:

Red Sox 2010 projected at-bats

	GS	CG	GF	W	L	Sho	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
Jon Lester	32	2	0	15	8	0	203 1/3	186	80	77	20	64	225	3	0	6	3.41	1.23	9.96	3.52
Josh Beckett	32	4	0	17	6	2	212 1/3	198	99	91	25	55	199	7	1	3	3.86	1.19	8.43	3.62
Clay Buchholz	16	0	0	7	4	0	92	91	44	43	13	36	68	2	0	1	4.21	1.38	6.65	1.89
Justin Masterson	6	0	0	2	2	0	35 1/3	38	18	18	3	13	28	4	0	0	4.58	1.44	7.13	2.15
Tim Wakefield	21	2	0	11	5	0	129 2/3	137	67	66	12	50	72	10	0	4	4.58	1.44	5.00	1.44
Brad Penny	24	0	0	7	8	0	131 2/3	160	89	82	17	42	89	5	0	4	5.61	1.53	6.08	2.12
Daisuke Matsuzaka	12	0	0	4	6	0	59 1/3	81	38	38	10	30	54	2	0	8	5.76	1.87	8.19	1.80
Paul Byrd	6	0	0	1	3	0	31	44	20	20	3	11	10	0	0	0	5.81	1.77	2.90	.91
Junichi Tazawa	4	0	0	2	2	0	20	32	16	14	3	8	10	3	0	0	6.30	2.00	4.50	1.25
John Smoltz	8	0	0	2	5	0	40	59	37	37	8	9	33	3	0	0	8.33	1.70	7.43	3.67
Michael Bowden	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	7	7	7	2	1	3	0	0	0	21.00	2.67	9.00	3.00

Of note:

• They gave 38 starts to three pitchers (Penny, Byrd, Smoltz) who posted a cumulative 6.17 ERA and are no longer with the organization.
• Matsuzaka's performance was awful in 8 games before his DL-extended Spring Training stint. In four games after returning, he threw six-plus innings per start and put up an ERA of 2.22.
• Everything about Jon Lester's line, the innings, the ERA, the WHIP, the strikeouts and walks, screams "Ace." And that's despite the fact that he put up a 6.51 ERA in his first eight games.
• Clay Buchholz looks like he's ready to be an effective Major League starter.

During this offseason, they added the best pitcher from the LAnaheim Angels, John Lackey.

So the starter projections:

Marcel:

Red Sox 2010 projected starters (marcel)

	GS	CG	GF	W	L	Sho	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
Jon Lester				13	7		182	171	76	72	18	60	170	5	0	5	3.56	1.27	8.41	2.83
Josh Beckett				14	8		184	178	86	81	21	48	171	7	1	4	3.96	1.23	8.36	3.56
John Lackey				11	7		165	166	77	70	20	46	130	8	0	6	3.82	1.28	7.09	2.83
Daisuke Matsuzaka				13	10		177	174	85	83	22	83	160	7	0	8	4.22	1.45	8.14	1.93
Clay Buchholz				7	7		112	115	63	59	15	46	92	3	0	3	4.74	1.44	7.39	2.00
Total				58	39		820	804	387	365	96	283	723	30	1	26	4.01	1.33	7.94	2.55

PECOTA:

Red Sox 2010 projected starters (PECOTA)

	GS	CG	GF	W	L		Sho	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
Josh Beckett	31			14	8	0		195.82	182	81	77	20	49	170				3.52	1.18	7.83	3.51
Clay Buchholz	29			12	7	0		164.82	145	72	68	18	62	141				3.71	1.26	7.68	2.27
John Lackey	31			14	8	0		199.69	188	83	79	22	52	144				3.55	1.20	6.47	2.74
Jon Lester	31			12	8	0		178.50	168	76	73	18	62	140				3.66	1.29	7.05	2.27
Daisuke Matsuzaka	30			18	13	0		177.30	172	91	86	22	86	152				4.37	1.46	7.72	1.77
Total	151			70	44			916.13	855	403	383	100	311	747				4.37	1.46	7.72	1.77

Both marcel and PECOTA think that Daisuke Matsuzaka will be down around 100 IP. I disagree, as discussed above, and have bumped him back up to around 176.

The Red Sox got 957 innings from their starts in 2009, and 515 runs allowed. I expect the innings number to go up, so I'm going to scale the projections to get to 975.

Marcel has these five pitchers at 820 innings, which means that I need to account for another 155 innings. Those "extra innings" have to go to, presumably, worse pitchers. (I suspect that Marcel is way off on how many innings, for example, Clay Buchholz will pitch.) But I'm going to assume that they get 155 innings in 30 or so starts from pitchers allowing 6 runs per 9 IP. (Not earned runs, just runs. That's a fairly high number, but I'm trying to do a reasonably conservative projection.) That works out to 103 additional runs allowed, on top of the 387 that marcel already projects, and brings the starting staff out to 490 runs in 975 innings. That's a 25 run improvement over last year from the starters, and I think that's extremely conservative.

PECOTA has these five pitchers at 915 innings, which means I need to add another 60. At 6 R per 9 IP, that's an additional 40 runs over the 403 which PECOTA already projects, or 443 runs over 975 innings. That's an improvement of 72 runs over last year's starters, and I think it is much likelier than marcel's improvement, particularly as none of these projections are "pricing in" the expected defensive upgrades.

Bottom Line: I expect the starters to give up fewer runs, in more innings, than the 2009 starters did. The starters who were terrible last year are either gone or fixed. The defense behind them makes everything work a little bit better, too. Net big improvement.



Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF
DH

2010 Red Sox Projections - DH

This is post ten in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - DH:
2009 - David Ortiz
2010 - David Ortiz

The Red Sox had two different David Ortizes last year. The first one hit .185/.284/.287/.570 with 1 HR in 178 at-bats through the end of May. The second hit .264/.356/.548/.904 with 27 HR in 363 at-bats from June 1 through the end of the year. The huge question right now is, which David Ortiz do they get in 2010? We don't know why the first Ortiz showed up for two months, or how he was banished. And certainly, he's a hitter who is well past his expected prime. Was the second half of last year the last gasp for Big Papi, just a "rage against the dying of the light?" Or was an adjustment to new conditions and recovery from injury that will result in a productive, though no longer stellar, performance? Both of the projection systems think the latter, but they're both based on past results. It's not inconceivable that we're looking at a "last days of Jim Ed Rice" scenario, where the skills just disappear and that's the end. If so, he won't get 500 at-bats this year. I suspect that the projections are roughly correct, that he's got another productive year or two left.

I've given Ortiz 90% of the DH at-bats with the remaining 10% going to Victor Martinez.

Red Sox 2009 vs. 2010 - DH

Player	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
David Ortiz (marcel)	518	84	136	35	1	26	95	79	7	3	112	2	1	1	4	11	.264	.363	.493	.856	91.7	5.74
Victor Martinez (marcel)	58	7	16	3	0	1	9	6	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	1	.287	.361	.452	.813	9.2	5.21
David Ortiz (PECOTA)	517	78	136	31	1	27	93	82	7	3	102	1	1	1	4	11	.263	.365	.487	.853	91.5	5.72
Victor Martinez (PECOTA)	57	7	16	3	0	2	9	6	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	1	.278	.350	.448	.798	8.8	4.96
2009 DH	576	83	136	35	2	27	103	81	5	6	145	1	2	0	7	11	.236	.333	.444	.777	86.0	4.68
2010 DH (marcel)	576	91	153	38	1	28	105	86	8	3	120	2	1	1	5	13	.266	.363	.489	.851	100.9	5.69
2010 DH (PECOTA)	575	86	152	34	1	29	102	88	8	3	111	1	1	1	5	13	.265	.364	.483	.847	100.3	5.65

2010 DH projection: Ortiz continues to decline, but recovers somewhat from disaster Net small upgrade

Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF

2010 Red Sox Projections - RF

This is post nine in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - RF:
2009 - J.D. Drew
2010 - J.D. Drew

Another position where the Red Sox are returning the same player. Unlike second base, however, we cannot reasonably expect J.D. Drew to take 96% of the at-bats. So I've got Drew at 75% of the RF at-bats, with Jeremy Hermida replacing Rocco Baldelli and inheriting the other 25%.

Drew remains an excellent all-around player, albeit one who tends to disappoint those who judge players on RBI, temper tantrums and thrown helmets and bats.

Red Sox 2009 vs. 2010 - CF

Player	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
J.D. Drew (marcel)	433	77	116	26	4	18	63	75	5	3	100	4	4	1	4	9	.269	.377	.472	.850	77.3	5.78
Jeremy Hermida (marcel)	145	19	39	6	0	5	18	16	1	1	35	1	0	0	0	2	.269	.350	.434	.784	22.0	4.98
J.D. Drew (PECOTA)	433	75	111	26	2	16	63	72	5	3	103	2	2	1	4	9	.257	.365	.442	.807	70.9	5.24
Jeremy Hermida (PECOTA)	145	20	39	8	0	5	20	17	1	1	37	1	0	0	0	2	.269	.351	.453	.804	22.8	5.13
2009 RF	578	104	163	34	5	32	88	87	5	5	138	3	6	1	4	11	.282	.378	.524	.903	111.0	6.35
2010 RF (marcel)	578	96	155	32	4	23	81	91	6	4	135	5	4	1	4	11	.269	.371	.463	.834	99.4	5.58
2010 RF (PECOTA)	578	96	150	34	3	22	84	89	6	4	140	3	3	1	4	11	.260	.362	.445	.806	93.7	5.22

Both of the projections see a decline. This is not surprising, as Drew is headed in to his age 34 season. But there's no particular reason to expect a cliff, and there's no reason not to expect another productive season from Drew.

2010 RF projection: Age related decline. Net small downgrade

Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF

2010 Red Sox Projections - CF

This is post eight in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - CF:
2009 - Jacoby Ellsbury
2010 - Mike Cameron

With 2009 CF Jacoby Ellsbury now playing left, center field in 2010 is going to be manned by Mike Cameron. Cameron is aging, but has, according to the various objective rankings, continued to be an excellent defensive center fielder. He hits for more power than Ellsbury but, like Adrian Beltre, does not have the on-base skills that the Red Sox would generally like to see.

And that difference could be offset by the defensive difference. Last year, FR had Cameron as 15 runs better than Ellsbury (4 vs. -11). UZR had Cameron as 28! runs better (10 vs. -18). [The number are not greatly consistent year-to-year. UZR likes Cameron better in each of the past two seasons, FR actually has Ellsbury better than Cameron in 2008.] In any event, Cameron remains, to the best of our ability to discern it, an excellent center fielder.

In this table, Mike Cameron is getting 85% of the CF at-bats, with Jacoby Ellsbury getting 10% and Bill Hall getting the last 5%.

Red Sox 2009 vs. 2010 - CF

Player	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Mike Cameron (marcel)	500	71	120	27	3	21	66	61	2	5	145	12	4	1	4	9	.241	.328	.435	.763	72.6	4.56
Jacoby Ellsbury (marcel)	58	9	17	2	0	1	5	4	0	0	8	5	0	0	0	1	.295	.352	.419	.772	9.2	5.24
Bill Hall (marcel)	29	3	6	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0	.229	.293	.387	.680	3.2	3.35
Mike Cameron (PECOTA)	500	69	127	27	2	20	68	55	2	5	139	9	6	1	4	9	.255	.333	.443	.777	73.3	4.67
Jacoby Ellsbury (PECOTA)	58	10	17	3	0	0	5	5	0	0	7	5	1	0	0	1	.294	.353	.429	.783	9.4	5.30
Bill Hall (PECOTA)	29	3	7	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0	.244	.306	.413	.719	3.5	3.80
2009 CF	677	99	200	27	10	9	66	51	3	6	89	70	13	6	6	17	.295	.347	.405	.752	101.3	4.88
2010 CF (marcel)	587	84	144	31	3	23	76	69	2	5	162	17	5	1	4	10	.246	.329	.431	.760	85.0	4.56
2010 CF (PECOTA)	587	83	151	32	3	22	78	63	2	5	155	15	7	1	4	10	.259	.334	.440	.774	86.2	4.69

For the same reason that the at-bats difference understates the offensive decline in LF, it overstates the offensive decline in CF. Because the leadoff hitter is now playing left, the 2010 center fielders are not going to get as many at-bats as the 2009 center fielders did. Instead of the the 15-16 run decline that the projection systems see, we're more realistically looking at a 2-3 runs difference. Really, not much of an offensive decline at all.


2010 CF projection: Comparable offense, moderate defensive upgrade. Net upgrade


Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF

2010 Red Sox Projections - LF

This is post seven in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - LF:
2009 - Jason Bay
2010 - Jacoby Ellsbury

I understand that this is not how everyone would address this. After all, Ellsbury was a full-time outfielder for the Red Sox last year, and will be a full-time outfielder for the Red Sox this year. Nevertheless, I think that this the cleanest way to address this. The one concession I'll make is that I'm going to use the at-bats from CF last year, because Ellsbury led off in 2009 and will do so again in 2010.

Obviously, the loss of Jason Bay results in the loss of a significant amount of the 2009 team's power. Bay led the team in HR and RBI, and his SLG was second to Youkilis'. He was probably the second-best overall offensive player that Boston had in 2009, and they didn't replace him with a comparable offensi ve performer. What they've done is move Jacoby Ellsbury, last year's center fielder, over to left, and replaced Ellsbury in center with Mike Cameron. Neither Ellsbury, nor Cameron, is as good a hitter as Jason Bay, and there's no hiding or getting away from that fact.

What is also true, however, and vitally important in evaluating this year's team, is that both of those players are much better athletes, base-runners and defensive players than Bay. Some of what they gave up in power, they'll make up in other ways. And some, they won't. Bay certainly has flaws as a player, and I suspect that the Mets are going to regret that contract before it's done, but he was a very good hitter, and Fenway was a very good park for him. Losing him doesn't make the Sox better.

Jacoby Ellsbury may not ever be what some hoped he would be, but he apparently isn't going to be what some feared he'd be, either. After a struggle adjusting to big league pitchers, Ellsbury has shown some evidence of enough plate discipline to get his average and OBP up to productive levels. He probably won't ever hit 25 HR in a season, but I'd be willing to be that he gets to 15 in one of the next four years, and 20 isn't totally out of the question. He's a legitimately great base-stealer and an excellent base-runner. How good a center fielder he was is a matter for some debate, though the objective measurements don't like his 2009 season. Regardless, I can't imagine anyone making the case that he won't represent a significant defensive upgrade in LF over Jason Bay (about whose defensive abilities there is also some debate.)

FR had Jason Bay at 2 runs below average last year, UZR had him at 13 runs below average. UZR had Ellsbury at 9 runs above average for the 58 games in left in 2008, and FR had him well above average in left also. I think that it's very difficult to determine who much, exactly, their left field defense will improve this season, but I don't think that there's any question that it will be significantly better.

I've given Ellsbury 85% of the left-field at-bats (because I'm going to give him 10% of the center-field at-bats, too.) Jeremy Hermida picks up the rest.

Red Sox 2009 vs. 2010 - LF

Player	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Jacoby Ellsbury (marcel)	575	91	169	25	7	10	58	47	2	6	80	52	9	4	5	10	.295	.352	.419	.772	91.1	5.24
Jeremy Hermida (marcel)	101	13	27	4	0	3	12	11	0	1	24	1	0	0	0	2	.269	.350	.434	.784	15.3	4.98
Jacoby Ellsbury (PECOTA)	575	100	169	33	7	9	59	49	2	6	75	51	10	4	5	10	.294	.353	.429	.783	92.7	5.30
Jeremy Hermida (PECOTA)	101	14	27	5	0	3	14	11	0	1	25	0	0	0	0	2	.269	.351	.453	.804	15.9	5.13
2009 LF	589	114	157	32	3	40	126	99	3	9	175	13	3	0	4	10	.267	.378	.535	.913	119.7	6.66
2010 LF (marcel)	676	104	196	30	7	14	71	59	3	7	104	54	9	4	5	12	.291	.352	.422	.773	106.4	5.20
2010 LF (PECOTA)	676	114	196	38	8	13	73	61	3	7	101	52	11	4	5	12	.290	.353	.433	.786	108.6	5.28

The 12-15 difference in Runs Created here understates the loss, because the 2010 left-fielders are taking more at-bats to provide less production than the 2009 left fielder. The transition from Bay to Ellsbury probably costs the Red Sox 20 runs in left field. The big question is, how many runs does it save them? You could probably extrapolate the best and worst case numbers and make a case that you save as many on defense as you lose on offense, but I don't believe it. You're probably looking at a net 10-15 runs deficit, which works out to about a game or a game and a half. It's a downgrade, but not a catastrophic one.

2010 LF projection: Big offensive downgrade, significant but smaller defensive upgrade. Net downgrade



Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B
3B
SS

2010 Red Sox Projections - SS

This is post six in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.


2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - SS:
2009 - Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, Jed Lowrie
2010 - Marco Scutaro

The Red Sox went into spring training in 2009 with Jed Lowrie and Julio Lugo competing for the SS position. When Lugo went down with a knee injury, Lowrie won the position by default, though both performed well in the early spring action. But shortly after the season started, Lowrie's wrist started acting up again, and they were forced to fall back on journeyman backup infielder Nick Green, a non-roster invitee to spring training who made the team by virtue of Lugo's injury. They got far more than they had any right to expect from Green, but there's a reason that he's never had a starting job in the majors. In order to "shore up" the position, they re-acquired Alex Gonzalez in August, and he was surprisingly mediocre (as opposed to expectedly awful) during that last stretch.

The bottom line on 2009, though, was that SS was a hole without a plug, a wound that just wouldn't heal. Green was better than average defensively, Gonzalez was worse than average, Lugo was bad. (By Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs, Green was 5 runs better than average, Gonzalez 3 runs worse than average and Lugo 6 runs worse. UZR has Green a little worse, Lugo a little worse, and Gonzalez a lot better.) And none of them hit. It was a problem spot.

Enter Marco Scutaro. In Boston's first free agent signing of the winter, they added the former Toronto SS, coming off his best season, and a season that is, unfortunately, likely to remain his best season. But even if he regresses, he still looks to be a significant offensive upgrade over what they put on the field at that spot last year. I'm giving Scutaro 85% of the SS at-bats, with Jed Lowrie and Bill Hall splitting the other 15%.

Red Sox 2009 vs. 2010 - SS

Player	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Marco Scutaro (marcel)	474	72	126	23	0	9	52	59	0	3	67	8	2	4	5	10	.266	.348	.378	.726	64.8	4.36
Jed Lowrie (marcel)	41	5	10	2	0	0	6	4	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0	.251	.325	.400	.725	5.4	4.13
Bill Hall (marcel)	41	4	9	2	0	1	5	3	0	0	12	0	0	0	0	0	.229	.293	.387	.680	4.5	3.35
Marco Scutaro (PECOTA)	474	76	130	25	1	10	56	58	0	3	62	8	3	4	5	10	.275	.355	.397	.752	68.7	4.66
Jed Lowrie (PECOTA)	41	4	10	2	0	0	5	4	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0	.252	.327	.393	.721	5.4	4.10
Bill Hall (PECOTA)	41	4	10	2	0	1	5	3	0	0	11	0	0	0	0	0	.244	.306	.413	.719	5.0	3.80
2009 SS	558	69	131	33	0	12	61	41	1	11	128	6	4	6	6	11	.235	.297	.358	.656	58.5	3.22
2010 SS (marcel)	556	82	145	28	1	11	64	67	1	4	89	8	3	4	6	12	.262	.343	.380	.723	74.7	4.26
2010 SS (PECOTA)	556	86	150	30	1	12	67	66	1	4	82	8	3	4	6	12	.271	.349	.398	.747	79.1	4.55

Obviously, both projection systems see big offensive improvement here. Defensively, it's a tougher call to make. UZR had Scutaro at about a run better than average last year, slightly worse than Green and Gonzalez, but at about eight runs better than average in 2008. FR had him at 11 runs better than average in 2009, significantly better than either Green or Gonzalez. I think that it's likely to be better, but shouldn't be any worse.


2010 3B projection: Big offensive improvement, comparable defense. Big net improvement



Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B
3B

2010 Red Sox Projections - 3B

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - 3B:
2009 - Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis
2010 - Adrian Beltre

This is the first position that I've looked at with a significant personnel change. It won't be the last.

The Red Sox decided, this winter, that it was time to move on from Mike Lowell. There may have been (I'd say almost certainly was) some "buyer's remorse" in the front office about the contract that he signed after the 2007 World Series, and his age and injury history make him, if not a bad bet to be a productive player in 2010, then certainly a significant productivity risk.

Adrian Beltre is not the prototypical Red Sox hitter. He has poor plate discipline and consequently doesn't work the count or draw walks. (He also strikes out at a high rate, but I am under the impression that that's more of a concern for people who misunderstand exactly what it is that the Red Sox focus on than it is for the Red Sox themselves.) He had one fantastic year, hitting .334/.388/.629/1.017 with 48 HR as a 25 year-old in LA, but after signing a big contract with Seattle, has varied from bad to worse. In his five years in Seattle, he hit .266/.317/.442/.759, which translates to a 101 OPS+, essentially league average. You'd like to get more than that out of a third baseman. (Of course, over that same five year span, Mike Lowell hit .283/.339/.456/.795 with an OPS+ of 104, which, adjusted for context, is not that much better.)

There is one more factor to consider, offensively. Seattle's Safeco Field is an extreme pitcher's park, and a bad park for right-handed batters, and Beltre suffered from playing there. He hit .254/.307/.410/.717 in Safeco over the past five years, and .277/.326/.472/.798 on the road. An .800 OPS might be a reasonable expectation when playing half of his games in Fenway.

The one thing about which there's no debate, however, is his defensive skill. Baseball Prospectus Fielding Runs has him 10 runs better than average at 3B last year. It had Mike Lowell at two runs worse than average. UZR had Beltre 14 runs better than average last year, Lowell at one run worse than average and Youkilis 1 1/2 runs worse than average. It seems reasonable to expect that the addition of Beltre saves them 10-12 runs next year. The question is, does that offset the expected offensive dropoff?

I'm giving Beltre 85% of the at-bats at 3rd base, with 10% going to Jed Lowrie and 5% to Kevin Youkilis.

Red Sox 2009 vs. 2010 - 3B

Player	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Adrian Beltre (marcel)	544	70	144	30	1	18	70	39	3	4	95	11	2	0	3	16	.265	.318	.430	.748	71.9	4.26
Jed Lowrie (marcel)	64	8	16	4	0	1	10	7	0	0	15	0	0	0	1	1	.251	.325	.400	.725	8.4	4.13
Kevin Youkilis (marcel)	32	5	9	2	0	1	5	4	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0	.294	.387	.511	.897	6.2	6.57
Adrian Beltre (PECOTA)	543	70	149	31	1	20	80	39	3	4	93	11	2	0	3	16	.275	.328	.451	.779	77.5	4.66
Jed Lowrie (PECOTA)	64	7	16	4	0	1	8	7	0	0	13	0	0	0	1	1	.252	.327	.393	.721	8.4	4.10
Kevin Youkilis (PECOTA)	31	5	9	2	0	1	5	4	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	.287	.384	.496	.880	6.1	6.33
2009 3B	641	89	184	43	2	29	106	55	5	6	114	5	2	0	5	26	.287	.347	.496	.843	102.0	5.20
2010 3B (marcel)	640	84	169	37	1	21	86	50	4	5	118	12	2	0	5	18	.265	.322	.431	.754	86.5	4.35
2010 3B (PECOTA)	639	83	175	37	1	23	94	51	4	5	113	11	2	0	5	18	.274	.331	.448	.778	92.0	4.68

Marcel thinks that the offensive dropoff is bigger than the defensive improvement, Pecota thinks it's a wash. I agree with PECOTA, for a couple of reasons. One is that Kevin Youkilis is a better hitter than Mike Lowell, and his playing time at third base artificially inflates the offensive production that they got at that position. Two is that marcel isn't making any adjustments for home park, and I think we're talking about as big a difference as there could be for a right-handed power hitter. I can imagine Beltre providing offense equal to what they got from Lowell last year, and being a pretty valuable player, though I won't predict that. I can also imagine him struggling and striking out far too often. What's most likely is that he plays most of the time and they get production that is similar to, though shaped differently than, the production they got from third base last year.

2010 3B projection: Small offensive drop-off, offset by defensive improvement. Net Comparable



Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B

2010 Red Sox Projections - 2B

This is post four in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - 2B:
2009 - Dustin Pedroia
2010 - Dustin Pedroia

In his first two full seasons, Dustin Pedrioa garnered a Gold Glove, a Rookie-of-the-Year award and an MVP Trophy. There wasn't much room to go up, and he didn't last year, fighting through a couple of nagging injuries to an All-Star performance, albeit one that was not as good as the previous two years had been. He hits for average, he demonstrates plate discipline, he hits for power, and he does it while playing good-to-excellent defense at a middle-infield spot. What's not to love?

Even better, he's just now entering what is, actuarially speaking, likely to be the best three or four year stretch of his career, his age 26-29 seasons. While improvement is certainly conceivable, I don't think any Sox fans would be disappointed if, over that stretch, he averaged .322/.378/.471/.848, as he did over the 2007-2008 seasons.

Pedroia played about 97% of Boston's innings at 2nd base last season, for the second straight year, and, absent some significant injury, there's no reason not to expect him to do it again. For the 2B projection, I'm giving Pedroia 96% of the at-bats, Bill Hall 2%, and Jed Lowrie the last 2%.

Red Sox 2009 vs. 2010 - 2B

Player	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Dustin Pedroia (marcel)	632	110	194	47	2	15	74	63	2	6	58	16	4	4	5	15	.308	.374	.465	.839	108.9	5.82
Bill Hall (marcel)	13	1	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	.229	.293	.387	.680	1.4	3.35
Jed Lowrie (marcel)	13	1	3	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	.251	.325	.400	.725	1.7	4.13
Dustin Pedrioa (PECOTA)	632	119	197	46	2	18	75	64	2	6	51	18	4	4	5	15	.312	.379	.481	.860	113.9	6.12
Bill Hall (PECOTA)	13	1	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	.244	.306	.413	.719	1.6	3.80
Jed Lowrie (PECOTA)	13	1	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	.252	.327	.393	.721	1.7	4.10
2009 2B	659	120	194	49	1	17	79	76	3	7	53	20	8	3	6	20	.294	.370	.449	.819	108.2	5.39
2010 2B (marcel)	658	113	200	49	2	16	78	65	2	6	65	17	4	4	6	16	.305	.371	.462	.834	112.1	5.73
2010 2B (PECOTA)	658	123	203	48	2	19	78	67	2	6	57	18	4	4	6	16	.310	.376	.478	.854	117.2	6.02

Again, we see both projection systems predicting improvement. This one is not hard to understand. Pedroia's entering his age 26 season. The things that we know about baseball players, how they age, when they peak, suggest that one of the next three years is likely to be his best. And this is a player who has already put up a .326/.376/.493/.869 season while playing Gold Glove defense at 2B. Can he do that again? Or better? Who knows, but it wouldn't be shocking. Neither, of course, would it be shocking if he didn't reach that level again.

The projection systems both say thumbs up, and that's what I'm using for this exercise. But I'm not going to keep writing "minor net improvement," either. They're returning the same player to the same position.

2010 2B projection: Comparable

Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B

2010 Red Sox Projections - 1B

This is post three in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - 1B:
2009 - Kevin Youkilis, Casey Kotchman, Adam Laroche, Jeff Bailey, Victor Martinez, Mark Kotsay
2010 - Kevin Youkilis

Over the past two years, Kevin Youkilis has played an outstanding first base for the Red Sox while putting up some of the best offensive numbers in the league. In addition, he's demonstrated the ability to go across the diamond and play a competent 3rd base when necessary, which increases the roster flexibility of the team. In short, he's been one of the best players in the American League, finishing in the top-6 in MVP voting in each of the past two seasons, and at age 31, there's no reason not to expect him to maintain close to that level for a few more years.

While Youkilis played in 63 games at third in 2009, the rest of the first base innings were scattered amongst a host of players, with Victor Martinez, Casey Kotchman and Jeff Bailey all within 10 innings of one-another. Youkilis may play a few innings at third base this season, but the addition of Adrian Beltre is presumably going to limit those innings. Victor Martinez will probably get a few games at first with Youkilis DHing or playing third as Francona will try to keep his players fresh. But, absent injuries, there should be a bit less of a revolving door at that corner than there was last year.

In 2009, Red Sox first basemen hit .293/.386/.482/.868, creating the fifth most runs in the AL with the fourth-best OPS. Red Sox 1B accumulated 597 at-bats last year, so that's my target for the projections. I'm giving 90% of them to Kevin Youkilis and 10% to Victor Martinez. In the absence of someone missing a protracted period, it's not obvious why we'd see anyone else there.

Red Sox 2009 vs. 2010 - 1B

Player	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Kevin Youkilis (marcel)	537	91	157	37	2	24	95	72	4	12	119	5	3	0	5	10	.294	.387	.511	.897	104.6	6.57
Victor Martinez (marcel)	60	8	17	3	0	2	10	6	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	1	.287	.361	.452	.813	9.5	5.21
Kevin Youkilis (PECOTA)	536	91	154	33	2	24	94	75	4	12	114	4	3	0	5	10	.287	.384	.496	.880	101.7	6.33
Victor Martinez (PECOTA)	59	7	16	3	0	2	10	6	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	1	.278	.350	.448	.798	9.1	4.96
2009 1B (actual)	597	108	175	34	2	25	97	76	7	17	128	7	1	0	5	19	.293	.386	.482	.868	108.6	6.08
2010 1B (marcel)	597	99	175	40	2	26	106	79	5	12	128	5	3	0	6	12	.293	.384	.505	.889	114.1	6.43
2010 1B (PECOTA)	596	98	170	37	2	26	104	81	5	12	123	4	3	0	6	12	.286	.380	.491	.872	110.8	6.19

As with the catchers, we see that Marcel is a little more optimistic than PECOTA, but each projection shows improvement over last year's numbers. That seems a bit strange until you think back to how many unproductive at-bats the Sox got from Casey Kotchman and Mark Kotsay and Jeff Bailey.

Bottom Line:

The Red Sox should expect to see performance at first base this year which is as good as, if not slightly better than, the performance at first base which it got last year. The backups last year weren't butchers, so the defense is comparable.

2010 1B projection: Minor Net Improvement


Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher

2010 Red Sox Projections - Catcher

This is post two in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - Catcher:
2009 - Jason Varitek, Victor Martinez, George Kottaras
2010 - Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek

The 2009 Red Sox started the season with Jason Varitek as the everyday catcher, and George Kottaras caddying for Tim Wakefield. Varitek, who had struggled badly in 2008, showed some early power, hitting 10 HR and slugging .522 through the end of May. Over the next two months, however, he hit .233/.363/.380/.743 with only 3 HR, and while the walks raised his OBP, it was still painful to watch him bat. Needing an upgrade, Boston traded three young pitchers to the Indians for Victor Martinez, who was outstanding the rest of the way, hitting .336/.405/.507/.912. There was some concern about a defensive difference between the two, but, aside from that aspect of Varitek's game being apparently overrated, it was fairly obvious at the end of the year that there wasn't a problem there.

On the season, the Red Sox got a .239/.333/.417/.750 line from the catching position, fourth best OPS in the AL, vs. a league average of .253/.315/.406/.721.

Boston enters 2010 with Victor Martinez as its everyday catcher, and Jason Varitek back (probably for his last season) as the backup. While Terry Francona has not yet made public the planned catcher usage patterns for the year, one would expect Martinez to also get some at-bats at first base and DH, while Varitek gets a few more at-bats than Red Sox backups have gotten in recent years.

Projections:

The 2009 Red Sox got 578 at-bats from their catchers. I've adjusted the projections to give 578 at-bats to the 2010 catchers, with 75% going to Victor Martinez and the remaining 25% to Jason Varitek. Here are the projections using the Marcel The Monkey and PECOTA projections, as well as last year's numbers.

Red Sox 2009 vs. 2010 - Catchers

Player	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Victor Martinez (marcel)	434	59	124	25	0	14	73	49	4	3	61	1	0	0	5	13	.287	.361	.452	.813	68.70	5.21
Jason Varitek (marcel)	145	15	32	7	0	5	18	19	1	1	38	0	0	0	1	3	.225	.321	.385	.706	17.97	3.84
Victor Martinez (PECOTA)	433	53	120	23	0	16	72	47	4	3	65	0	0	0	5	13	.278	.350	.448	.798	65.96	4.96
Jason Varitek (PECOTA)	144	12	32	6	0	3	14	18	1	1	36	0	0	0	1	3	.226	.320	.355	.675	16.34	3.50
2009 Catchers (actual)	578	71	138	43	0	20	85	83	6	3	124	1	0	0	8	10	.239	.333	.417	.750	83.00	4.53
2010 Catchers (marcel)	579	75	157	32	1	19	91	68	6	5	100	2	1	0	6	17	.272	.351	.435	.786	86.64	4.85
2010 Catchers (PECOTA)	578	66	153	29	1	19	87	65	6	5	101	0	0	0	6	17	.265	.342	.425	.767	82.27	4.58

Bottom Line:

PECOTA and Marcel differ on the amount of improvement they expect to see at catcher, but both agree that the Red Sox have improved offensively at the catcher position. As for defense, I haven't seen any reason to think that there will be much difference.

2010 Catcher Projection: Small Net Improvement


Previous entries:
Introduction

2010 Red Sox Projections

Red Sox 2009 vs. 2010

Over the course of the next couple of weeks, I'm going to be looking at the 2009 Red Sox vs. the 2010 Red Sox. Obviously, there have been several changes to the team over the winter. Equally obviously, there is some disagreement about whether the team has improved or regressed. Boston Globe writer Tony Massarotti called the Red Sox current position a "predicament" over the weekend.

I think that's just silly. My initial reaction is that this is a stronger squad than the one which won 95 games last year. But I haven't looked at all of the numbers yet. That's what I'm going to be doing over the next couple of weeks. My intention is to post at noon each day. I'll be going around the positions in order as numbered (from catcher [2] to right field [9]) followed by DH, starting pitching and bullpen. So there should be, when I'm done, a total of thirteen posts - this introduction, 11 position posts, and a wrap-up. And the wrap-up, projection post should come on Saturday, February 13.


For projections, I'll be using two different sets of numbers. The first is the "Marcel the Monkey" projections from The Book website.

The Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System (or the Marcels for short) is the most advanced forecasting system ever conceived.

Not.

Actually, it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.

The other is the PECOTA forecasting system from Baseball Prospectus. Everything that Marcel is not, PECOTA is. Long, complicated, and proprietary. It's also got a very good track record.

I'll be looking at the team position-by-position, and comparing 2010's projected performance with 2009's actual performance. In most cases, I will adjusting the projection system's numbers to try to closely match the at-bats by position to 2009's at-bats. I will let you know what those adjustments are as I make them.

One more projection issue - the Runs Created calculation uses IBB, HBP, SH, SF and GDP. PECOTA doesn't provide those. In each case, I'll be using the Marcel-adjusted projections on those five fields with the PECOTA numbers, and calling it close enough. This whole exercise is obviously a crystal exercise anyway, and those are values that tend to be small, with minimal impact on the numbers.

At the end, I'll look at all of the projections, generated a likely runs scored and runs allowed figure, and produce a Projected Pythagorean record.

So, first up, tomorrow: Catcher