2010 Red Sox Projections - Conclusion and projected record

This is post thirteen in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - Overall and conclusion

The following table shows the at-bats projected per player.

Red Sox 2010 projected at-bats

Player	AB
Jacoby Ellsbury	633
Dustin Pedrioa	632
Kevin Youkilis	569
Victor Martinez	552
Adrian Beltre	544
David Ortiz	518
Mike Cameron	500
Marco Scutaro	474
J.D. Drew	433
Jeremy Hermida	246
Jason Varitek	145
Jed Lowrie	118
Bill Hall	83

That seems like a pretty reasonable starting point.

Red Sox 2010 projected at-bats

Player	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
2009	5453	857	1478	330	25	211	811	649	38	70	1094	126	39	16	51	135	.271	.353	.457	.810	877.8	5.20
2010 (marcel)	5447	823	1489	311	20	175	750	628	31	48	1015	118	29	15	42	114	.273	.351	.434	.785	841.1	5.06
2010 (PECOTA)	5440	826	1498	314	18	179	761	626	31	48	976	110	32	15	42	114	.275	.353	.438	.791	848.4	5.12

NOTE: The 2009 runs numbers doesn't match the 2009 Red Sox runs scored because of pinch-hitting, pinch-running and pitchers.

The 2009 Red Sox generated 883 Runs Created and scored 872 actual runs. Marcel and PECOTA suggest that the Red Sox will create 841 and 848 runs, respectively. So the offseason changes that were made will probably result in the Red Sox scoring 35-45 fewer runs than the 2009 team scored.


Projected Runs Scored: 845
2009 Runs scored: 872
Offensive downgrade: 27 runs


Marcel has the starters allowing 490 runs, with the bullpen allowing another 226, for a total of 716 runs allowed.

PECOTA has the starters allowing 443 runs, with the bullpen allowing another 209, for a total of 652 runs allowed.

Neither of those takes into account the defensive upgrade, which looks to be 20-30 runs independent of the pitching performance. I think that the PECOTA numbers here are likelier than the marcel numbers, though there are bound to be some bumps along the way. The systems project a 20-80 run improvement in runs allowed. I'm going towards the upper end of that projection.

Projected Runs allowed: 660
2009 Runs allowed: 736
Pitching/Defensive upgrade: 76 runs


So, what do the 2010 Red Sox look like as they head to Spring Training?

Red Sox 2010 - Projected Record

	R	RA	Pyth WP	W	L
marcel	841	716	0.573	93	69
PECOTA	848	652	0.618	100	62
Lyford	845	660	0.611	99	63

They look to me like a 97-100 win team, a team that's significantly upgraded its run prevention capabilities over the winter at the cost of a smaller offensive downgrade.

Bottom Line: Boston wins 98, goes to the post-season again.



Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF
DH
Starters
Relievers