2010 Red Sox Projections - Conclusion and projected record
This is post thirteen in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.
2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - Overall and conclusion
The following table shows the at-bats projected per player.
The 2009 Red Sox generated 883 Runs Created and scored 872 actual runs. Marcel and PECOTA suggest that the Red Sox will create 841 and 848 runs, respectively. So the offseason changes that were made will probably result in the Red Sox scoring 35-45 fewer runs than the 2009 team scored.
Projected Runs Scored: 845
2009 Runs scored: 872
Offensive downgrade: 27 runs
Marcel has the starters allowing 490 runs, with the bullpen allowing another 226, for a total of 716 runs allowed.
PECOTA has the starters allowing 443 runs, with the bullpen allowing another 209, for a total of 652 runs allowed.
Neither of those takes into account the defensive upgrade, which looks to be 20-30 runs independent of the pitching performance. I think that the PECOTA numbers here are likelier than the marcel numbers, though there are bound to be some bumps along the way. The systems project a 20-80 run improvement in runs allowed. I'm going towards the upper end of that projection.
Projected Runs allowed: 660
2009 Runs allowed: 736
Pitching/Defensive upgrade: 76 runs
So, what do the 2010 Red Sox look like as they head to Spring Training?
Bottom Line: Boston wins 98, goes to the post-season again.