Saturday, February 13, 2010

2010 Red Sox Projections - Conclusion and projected record

This is post thirteen in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - Overall and conclusion

The following table shows the at-bats projected per player.

Red Sox 2010 projected at-bats
PlayerAB
Jacoby Ellsbury 633
Dustin Pedrioa 632
Kevin Youkilis 569
Victor Martinez 552
Adrian Beltre 544
David Ortiz 518
Mike Cameron 500
Marco Scutaro 474
J.D. Drew 433
Jeremy Hermida 246
Jason Varitek 145
Jed Lowrie 118
Bill Hall 83
That seems like a pretty reasonable starting point.

Red Sox 2010 projected at-bats
PlayerABRunsHits2B3BHRRBIBBIBBHBPKSBCSSHSFGDPBAOBASPctOPSRCRC/25
2009545385714783302521181164938701094126391651135.271.353.457.810877.85.20
2010 (marcel)544782314893112017575062831481015118291542114.273.351.434.785841.15.06
2010 (PECOTA)54408261498314181797616263148976110321542114.275.353.438.791848.45.12
NOTE: The 2009 runs numbers doesn't match the 2009 Red Sox runs scored because of pinch-hitting, pinch-running and pitchers.

The 2009 Red Sox generated 883 Runs Created and scored 872 actual runs. Marcel and PECOTA suggest that the Red Sox will create 841 and 848 runs, respectively. So the offseason changes that were made will probably result in the Red Sox scoring 35-45 fewer runs than the 2009 team scored.


Projected Runs Scored: 845
2009 Runs scored: 872
Offensive downgrade: 27 runs


Marcel has the starters allowing 490 runs, with the bullpen allowing another 226, for a total of 716 runs allowed.

PECOTA has the starters allowing 443 runs, with the bullpen allowing another 209, for a total of 652 runs allowed.

Neither of those takes into account the defensive upgrade, which looks to be 20-30 runs independent of the pitching performance. I think that the PECOTA numbers here are likelier than the marcel numbers, though there are bound to be some bumps along the way. The systems project a 20-80 run improvement in runs allowed. I'm going towards the upper end of that projection.

Projected Runs allowed: 660
2009 Runs allowed: 736
Pitching/Defensive upgrade: 76 runs


So, what do the 2010 Red Sox look like as they head to Spring Training?

Red Sox 2010 - Projected Record
RRAPyth WPWL
marcel8417160.5739369
PECOTA8486520.61810062
Lyford8456600.6119963
They look to me like a 97-100 win team, a team that's significantly upgraded its run prevention capabilities over the winter at the cost of a smaller offensive downgrade.

Bottom Line: Boston wins 98, goes to the post-season again.



Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF
DH
Starters
Relievers

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