2010 Red Sox Projections - Relievers

This is post twelve in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.


2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - Relief Pitchers:
2009 - Jonathan Papelbon, Hidecki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Justin Masterson, Billy Wagner
2010 - Jonathan Papelbon, Hidecki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Tim Wakefield


The bullpen was a strength of the 2009 team, and it is likely to be again in 2010. Obviously, a dominant pitcher at the back of the bullpen, as the Red Sox have with Jonathan Papelbon, is an asset. In addition, they have a bunch of late-inning guys who can "miss bats," strikeout pitchers, led by Daniel Bard.

The projections for 2010 performance:

Red Sox 2010 projected relievers (marcel)

	GS	CG	GF	W	L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
Jonathan Papelbon				3	3	29	66	58	25	22	6	20	67	2	0	1	3.00	1.18	9.14	3.35
Ramon Ramirez				5	3	0	67	62	30	27	6	28	55	2	1	3	3.63	1.34	7.39	1.96
Hideki Okajima				4	2	1	62	58	26	25	8	22	52	2	0	1	3.63	1.29	7.55	2.36
Daniel Bard				3	2	1	50	46	25	22	6	19	48	2	0	2	3.96	1.30	8.64	2.53
Manny Delcarmen				3	2	1	62	59	30	28	6	27	52	3	0	1	4.06	1.39	7.55	1.93
Tim Wakefield				10	8	0	143	147	78	74	18	54	88	8	0	7	4.66	1.41	5.54	1.63
Total	0	0	0	28	20	32	450	430	214	198	50	170	362	19	1	15	3.96	1.33	7.24	2.13

Red Sox 2010 projected relievers (PECOTA)

	GS	CG	GF	W	L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
Daniel Bard	5			4	2	0	55	46	27	26	6	36	49	0	0	0	4.25	1.48	7.99	1.38
Manny Delcarmen	0			4	2	0	55	48	23	22	5	24	43	0	0	0	3.60	1.30	7.05	1.83
Hideki Okajima	0			4	2	2	55	48	22	21	6	19	46	0	0	0	3.44	1.21	7.49	2.40
Jonathan Papelbon	0			4	2	43	55	40	16	15	4	17	58	0	0	0	2.45	1.03	9.43	3.47
Ramon Ramirez	0			4	2	2	55	46	23	22	5	25	45	0	0	0	3.60	1.28	7.37	1.83
Tim Wakefield	18			5	5	0	98	101	53	50	13	38	55	0	0	0	4.60	1.43	5.03	1.43
	23	0	0	25	15	47	373	329	164	156	39	159	296	0	0	0	3.77	1.30	7.12	1.87

And bullpen numbers vs. last year's numbers:

Red Sox 2010 bullpen

	GS	CG	GF	W	L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	K/BB
2009 relievers	0	0	154	27	17	41	479	461	221	202	51	211	439	29	4	16	3.80	1.40	8.25	2.08
2010 (marcel)	0	0	0	28	20	32	450	430	214	198	50	170	362	19	1	15	3.96	1.33	7.24	2.13
2010 (PECOTA)	23	0	0	26	15	47	373	329	164	156	39	158	295	0	0	0	3.77	1.30	7.12	1.87

Marcel sees a slight degradation, whil PECOTA sees a slight improvement. But both sets of numbers are pretty comparable.

As noted in the starters entry, I think that the Red Sox are going to get about 975 innings from their starters this year, leaving about 465 innings for the bullpen. In those 465 innings, the marcel projections work out to about 226 runs allowed by the bullpen, the PECOTA projections work out to about 209 runs.


Bottom line: The bullpen run performance should be assisted by the improved defense, and further aided by the increased workload handled by the starters. On the other hand, it's basically the same set of pitchers, and there's no reason to expect as significant upgrade or degrade in the inherent pitching performance. Net comparable


Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF
DH
Starters