Friday, February 12, 2010

2010 Red Sox Projections - Relievers

This is post twelve in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.


2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - Relief Pitchers:
2009 - Jonathan Papelbon, Hidecki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Justin Masterson, Billy Wagner
2010 - Jonathan Papelbon, Hidecki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Tim Wakefield


The bullpen was a strength of the 2009 team, and it is likely to be again in 2010. Obviously, a dominant pitcher at the back of the bullpen, as the Red Sox have with Jonathan Papelbon, is an asset. In addition, they have a bunch of late-inning guys who can "miss bats," strikeout pitchers, led by Daniel Bard.

The projections for 2010 performance:

Red Sox 2010 projected relievers (marcel)
GSCGGFW L SvIPHRERHRBBKHBPBKWPERAWHIPK/9K/BB
Jonathan Papelbon332966582522620672013.001.189.143.35
Ramon Ramirez53067623027628552133.631.347.391.96
Hideki Okajima42162582625822522013.631.297.552.36
Daniel Bard32150462522619482023.961.308.642.53
Manny Delcarmen32162593028627523014.061.397.551.93
Tim Wakefield108014314778741854888074.661.415.541.63

Total00028203245043021419850170362191153.961.337.242.13

Red Sox 2010 projected relievers (PECOTA)
GSCGGFW L SvIPHRERHRBBKHBPBKWPERAWHIPK/9K/BB
Daniel Bard542055462726636490004.251.487.991.38
Manny Delcarmen042055482322524430003.601.307.051.83
Hideki Okajima042255482221619460003.441.217.492.40
Jonathan Papelbon0424355401615417580002.451.039.433.47
Ramon Ramirez042255462322525450003.601.287.371.83
Tim Wakefield185509810153501338550004.601.435.031.43

2300251547373329164156391592960003.771.307.121.87

And bullpen numbers vs. last year's numbers:

Red Sox 2010 bullpen
GSCGGFW L SvIPHRERHRBBKHBPBKWPERAWHIPK/9K/BB
2009 relievers0015427174147946122120251211439294163.801.408.252.08
2010 (marcel)00028203245043021419850170362191153.961.337.242.13
2010 (PECOTA)2300261547373329164156391582950003.771.307.121.87

Marcel sees a slight degradation, whil PECOTA sees a slight improvement. But both sets of numbers are pretty comparable.

As noted in the starters entry, I think that the Red Sox are going to get about 975 innings from their starters this year, leaving about 465 innings for the bullpen. In those 465 innings, the marcel projections work out to about 226 runs allowed by the bullpen, the PECOTA projections work out to about 209 runs.


Bottom line: The bullpen run performance should be assisted by the improved defense, and further aided by the increased workload handled by the starters. On the other hand, it's basically the same set of pitchers, and there's no reason to expect as significant upgrade or degrade in the inherent pitching performance. Net comparable


Previous entries:
Introduction
Catcher
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF
DH
Starters

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