Wednesday, February 10, 2010

2010 Red Sox Projections - DH

This is post ten in a series of posts previewing the 2010 Red Sox.

2009 vs. 2010 Red Sox - DH:
2009 - David Ortiz
2010 - David Ortiz

The Red Sox had two different David Ortizes last year. The first one hit .185/.284/.287/.570 with 1 HR in 178 at-bats through the end of May. The second hit .264/.356/.548/.904 with 27 HR in 363 at-bats from June 1 through the end of the year. The huge question right now is, which David Ortiz do they get in 2010? We don't know why the first Ortiz showed up for two months, or how he was banished. And certainly, he's a hitter who is well past his expected prime. Was the second half of last year the last gasp for Big Papi, just a "rage against the dying of the light?" Or was an adjustment to new conditions and recovery from injury that will result in a productive, though no longer stellar, performance? Both of the projection systems think the latter, but they're both based on past results. It's not inconceivable that we're looking at a "last days of Jim Ed Rice" scenario, where the skills just disappear and that's the end. If so, he won't get 500 at-bats this year. I suspect that the projections are roughly correct, that he's got another productive year or two left.

I've given Ortiz 90% of the DH at-bats with the remaining 10% going to Victor Martinez.

Red Sox 2009 vs. 2010 - DH
David Ortiz (marcel)5188413635126957973112211411.264.363.493.85691.75.74
Victor Martinez (marcel)587163019600800001.287.361.452.8139.25.21
David Ortiz (PECOTA)5177813631127938273102111411.263.365.487.85391.55.72
Victor Martinez (PECOTA)577163029600800001.278.350.448.7988.84.96

2009 DH57683136352271038156145120711.236.333.444.77786.04.68
2010 DH (marcel)57691153381281058683120211513.266.363.489.851100.95.69
2010 DH (PECOTA)57586152341291028883111111513.265.364.483.847100.35.65

2010 DH projection: Ortiz continues to decline, but recovers somewhat from disaster Net small upgrade

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