What Do Democrats Really Stand For Today?

There's been a lot of analysis done of Thomas Edsall's NY Times piece from Sunday, in which he states that "preparations by Democratic operatives for the 2012 election make it clear for the first time that the party will explicitly abandon the white working class." The most interesting and cogent of which, I think, is this bit from Jim Geraghty:

You think the Democratic Party cares about wealth? Come on. In their minds, George Soros spending his money to help out his political views is noble, but the Koch Brothers are evil incarnate. Higher taxes are good, but no one will complain if Tim Geithner or Charlie Rangel cut corners on paying them. One might be tempted to argue that the righteousness of unions represent an inviolate principle to Democrats, but in New York, Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo is trimming here and there and living to tell the tale.

No, the party really is about identity politics now; us vs. them. And everybody knows which side they’re on.

Obviously, they've been about identity politics for a long time. But right now, there doesn't seem to be anything else. It's us vs. them, period.

More of that Obama bipartisanship

Jim Geraghty is fond of pointing out that "all of President Obama's promises come with expiration dates. All of them." So, does everyone remember what President Obama said in his State of the Union address? About not "re-fighting the battles of the last two years" but "fix[iing] what needs fixing and ... mov[ing] forward"?

OK, this is not a promise, exactly, but how does this story fit?

Mr. Obama last year short-circuited messy confirmation battles for Dr. Donald Berwick, head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and Craig Becker, a member of the National Labor Relations Board, by using recess appointments to put the men in place while the Senate was out of town. The appointments expire at the end of this year, and the president late on Wednesday renominated both men for a full term...

...knowing that neither one is confirmable, as each is radically outside of the American political mainstream, and cannot possibly gather enough votes to overcome the inevitable filibuster.

So, despite the fact that he just told us all, less than a week ago, that we shouldn't do it, I guess he's decided that re-fighting some of the battles of the last two years is OK. What this tells us, of course, is that when he says he doesn't want to "re-fight the battles of the last two years" he simply means that he doesn't want to re-fight the battles that he won. Those should be enshrined and untouched for all eternity. The battles that he lost, however - he's OK with re-fighting those suckers for as long as it takes...


This is pretty much the standard liberal and media (I know, redundant) definition of bipartisanship - both parties doing what the liberals want. It's SOP in Washington - "heads, I win, tails, we vote again."

"Featuring Jim Geraghty as Captain Obvious..."

Geraghty:

There has been no hope, no change, no sudden Era of Good Feelings either here or abroad. The problems that Democrats insisted were the fault of Bush are in fact pervasive in the system of government. Obama pledged a government that was more efficient, more effective, more bang for the buck and more responsive to Americans. He has delivered none of this.

Here's the thing - he may have pledged those things, but there was no reason whatsoever to think that it was a pledge which he was capable of redeeming. Or, frankly, would even try to redeem. Nothing, absolutely nothing, about this administration has been surprising. The American electorate put an incapable, inexperienced, leftist narcissist into the White House, and the end result has been exactly what one would expect from an administration led by an incapable, inexperienced, leftist narcissist. This was all there for anyone to see, if they wanted to.  Yeah, the media lied about him, but there was plenty of evidence for anyone that wanted to see...

The House election landscape - 8/23/2010

Patrick Ruffini asked what the current House election landscape looks like, Jim Geraghty obliged with an answer. Geraghty divided the competitive races into five color coded groups. I turned his colors into percentages, and came up with the following projection:

Competitive House Races - 8/23/2010

Geraghty's Label	Number of seats	Percentage	R- Wins
BLUE: GOP Should Win	13	90%	11.7
GREEN: GOP Has Good Chance of Winning	28	75%	21
YELLOW: GOP Chances About 50-50	36	50%	18
ORANGE: GOP Should Win With Luck or Wave:	22	25%	5.5
RED: GOP Will Need a Wave and Some Luck:	6	10%	0.6
Total	105		56.8

Geraghty may or may not agree with my percentages, but they seemed like a conservative reading of his color-coded groups. And he's suggesting (well, my interpretation of his analysis is suggesting) a 56-57 seat pickup for the Republicans in November...


(BTW, if you're interested in what's going on in the 2010 campaign, and you aren't reading Jim Geraghty's Campaign Spot every day, well, you should be...)

More shocking - shocking! - economic news

If you've got a weak heart, you should probably skip this post, because the news is shocking, just shocking:

The economic rebound last quarter turned out to be slower than first thought, one of the reasons unemployment is likely to stay high this year.

The economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate from January to March, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was slightly weaker than an initial estimate of 3.2 percent a month ago. The new reading, based on more complete information, also fell short of economists' forecast for stronger growth of 3.4 percent.

I know - who could POSSIBLY have expected that?

I remind you again of that wonderful Jim Geraghty line:

If I find myself in a fistfight, I hope it's with one of these economists who are always getting quoted by Reuters or Bloomberg, because then I'll rest assured that I'll always have the element of surprise. These guys never expect everything.

"If the GOP wins only half the seats listed below..."

His editors at National Review Online had a special request for Jim Geraghty:

"Hey Jim, could you put together a list of House races where it’s either an open seat race or a vulnerable incumbent?” the editors ask, oh-so-innocently.

Do they have any idea how much work that entails? Scott Brown won a Senate race in Massachusetts by a healthy margin this year — you can find a list of winnable House seats by starting at page one of Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and working your way to the index. It might be shorter to list the Democrats who aren’t vulnerable this year.

But he proceeeded to do so.

Once you add up the upcoming special elections, the open-seat races, and the races where there’s some indicator of trouble for a Democratic opponent — a particularly strong challenger, favorable district demographics, surprising fundraising numbers, a particularly weak Democratic incumbent, or a combination of these factors — you come up with more than 90 House races. If the GOP wins only half the seats listed below, they win back the House.

It's a good read, with a lot of painstaking research behind it. And if you're at all interested in the campaign season leading up to the elections, you should be reading Geraghty's blog every day. He's following all of the races, and is on top of everything where there's a competitive election.

Gosh, I wish I could be watching...

Geraghty's take on the health care kabuki:

The Democrats are offering a lot of anecdotes about Baby Jesus, Steny Hoyer's answering machine, and the teeth of the dead. Obama is at his least persuasive; he keeps ruling GOP arguments out of bounds for one reason or another - don't hold up a copy of the bill, don't cite Washington because people are angry at Washington right now, don't ask for equal time, don't focus on where we disagree, don't remind me of what I said as candidate. I don't think that transforms the skeptics into supporters.

"Well Done, Captain Obvious"

George Stephanopoulos didn't call him on it, but someone noticed the insanity of President Obama's contention that people are angry with him because he's not doing enough communicating to the people about how hard he's working for us.

Geraghty:

Only ten months or so after the first Tea Parties, six months after the August town hall recesses, and only three months after his campaigning for candidates in New Jersey and Virginia does jack squat, the President of the United States recognizes that a large number of Americans are increasingly angry with the direction of the country.

And yet, he seems to chalk it up to a lack of communication: “"We were so busy just getting stuff done and dealing with the immediate crises that were in front of us that I think we lost some of that sense of speaking directly to the American people about what their core values are and why we have to make sure those institutions are matching up with those values," he told ABC's George Stephanopoulos.

Really? This guy’s been on the television more than the Geico lizard, morning, noon and night, and the only time he stopped talking to the American people was the three days or so that we really wanted to hear from him, when somebody tried to blow up a flight to Detroit on Christmas. It’s not the lack of talk, Mr. President, it’s what you’re doing.

Turnout anecdotes

Geraghty:

Winchester:

I live in Winchester, just north of the city. Long line this morning at 7:00 AM when the polls opened— approximately 40 people were waiting to vote. With the exception of the 2008 presidential election, where there were 100 or so people in line, I haven't seen early morning turnout approach this.

High turnout isn't necessarily uniform across the state. One of my co-workers (who prides himself on being one of the few conservative voices in Jamaica Plain) said that turnout was exceptionally low— much lower than the presidential election. Given Jamaica Plain's strong blue tilt, it will be interesting to see how turnout evolves over the course of today.

Boston:

.I live in arguably the most liberal neighborhood in downtown Boston (I'll never forget the look on the Obama canvasser's face when he came by my apartment last year and I told him I was voting for McCain). When I got to the polls this morning, my wife and I were the only two people there other than the poll workers. In November, the line was out the door and halfway down the block

Tweet of the day

Jim Geraghty

If our drone killed an al-Qaeda bigwig DURING Obama's Nobel Peace Prize speech, it would be as cool as the closing scenes of The Godfather.