Monday, August 23, 2010

The House election landscape - 8/23/2010

Patrick Ruffini asked what the current House election landscape looks like, Jim Geraghty obliged with an answer. Geraghty divided the competitive races into five color coded groups. I turned his colors into percentages, and came up with the following projection:

Competitive House Races - 8/23/2010
Geraghty's LabelNumber of seatsPercentageR- Wins
BLUE: GOP Should Win1390%11.7
GREEN: GOP Has Good Chance of Winning2875%21
YELLOW: GOP Chances About 50-503650%18
ORANGE: GOP Should Win With Luck or Wave:2225%5.5
RED: GOP Will Need a Wave and Some Luck:610%0.6

Geraghty may or may not agree with my percentages, but they seemed like a conservative reading of his color-coded groups. And he's suggesting (well, my interpretation of his analysis is suggesting) a 56-57 seat pickup for the Republicans in November...

(BTW, if you're interested in what's going on in the 2010 campaign, and you aren't reading Jim Geraghty's Campaign Spot every day, well, you should be...)

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