Monday, August 23, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 8/23/2010

I've been very consistent in saying, as long as I've been doing this, that winning 2-of-3 is sufficient, in the long run, to make the playoffs. More than sufficient. But sometimes it's not good enough in the short run. That's where we are now - 4-2 isn't good enough.

  • It's all over.

    This isn't pessimism, it's realism. Yes, mathematically it's still possible for the Red Sox to catch one of the two teams ahead of them. They've got enough games left with each, and there are still seven left between the two, so it's very feasible.

    But.

    The simple fact is that, regardless of the inherent qualities of the three teams, the Red Sox that are going to take the field for the next six weeks are not as good as the Rays and they are not as good as the Yankees. As constructed, when the season started, they were. As they currently exist, they are not. They are not good enough to make up this deficit without Youkilis and Pedroia and Ellsbury and Cameron. They're playing without four of their opening day starters and, given that they were loaded when the season started, they're still a good team. But they're not a good enough team.

    The starting pitching wasn't as good as it was supposed to be (Beckett and Lackey in particular) and the bullpen has had issues (Okajima and Ramirez and Delcarmen and Papelbon have all been slightly to significantly worse than expected) but despite all of that, they'd still be in this race if they'd been relatively healthy. They haven't been. They played three weeks with 5th and 6th string catchers, they played three weeks without Pedroia AND Martinez AND Ellsbury, they're going to end up playing the last eight weeks without Pedroia AND Youkilis AND Ellsbury, and there's no team that can survive that kind of degradation.

    They'll be mathematically in it for the next couple of weeks. If they could somehow go into Tampa and sweep next weekend, it'll even look realistic. But it isn't. Not anymore.

    Am I saying that they can't make the playoffs? That they won't make the playoffs? No. I'm saying that if they somehow do make the playoffs, it'll be a massive fluke, because they've played miles over their heads for the last six weeks of the season, or the Rays or Yankees have completely collapsed.
  • I generally avoid the "psychoanalysis" method of performance analysis. Generally. Friday's shellacking at the hands of the Blue Jays, as Dustin Pedroia headed back to the DL, had the look and feel of a team conceding, acquiescing to its fate. They haven't, as the last couple of days have shown, but it sure looked like it.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - David Ortiz hit .381/.500/.762/1.262 on the week. Honorable mention to Darnell McDonald, who, at .455/.571/.818/1.390 had better rate stats, but only had about half of the plate appearances.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Clay Buchholz started twice this week. He went seven innings without allowing a run and six innings without allowing a run.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/23/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.35(1)4.04(3)0.625(1)78467747-1
Tampa Bay5(3)3.83(1)0.62(2)77477648-1
Minnesota4.91(5)4.09(4)0.583(3)725272520
Texas4.92(4)4.21(6)0.571(4)70536954-1
Chicago4.68(7)4.19(5)0.551(5)68566757-1
Boston5.1(2)4.59(9)0.548(6)685771543
Toronto4.69(6)4.33(7)0.536(7)66576459-2
Oakland4.02(11)3.87(2)0.517(8)64596162-3
Los Angeles4.44(8)4.61(10)0.483(9)606562632
Detroit4.37(9)4.69(11)0.468(10)586661633
Cleveland4.01(12)4.88(12)0.411(11)51735074-1
Kansas City4.12(10)5.17(13)0.398(12)497553714
Seattle3.29(14)4.34(8)0.376(13)477749752
Baltimore3.71(13)5.18(14)0.352(14)448144810

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York10161
Tampa Bay9963
Minnesota9468
Boston9270
Texas9171

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10161
Tampa Bay10062
Minnesota9468
Texas9171
Boston9171

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York6.57(1)3.71(2)0.74(1)52520
Tampa Bay5.57(3)3.71(2)0.677(2)52520
Chicago6.17(2)4.83(7)0.61(3)4224-2
Toronto4.83(5)4(4)0.586(4)4224-2
Detroit4.86(4)4.29(6)0.557(5)43430
Oakland3.86(10)3.43(1)0.554(6)43430
Kansas City4.83(5)4.83(7)0.5(7)33421
Baltimore3.71(12)4(4)0.466(8)34340
Seattle4.17(9)4.83(7)0.433(9)33330
Boston4.5(8)5.33(11)0.423(10)33421
Minnesota4.67(7)5.67(13)0.412(11)24422
Los Angeles3.83(11)4.83(7)0.396(12)24240
Texas3.57(13)5.71(14)0.297(13)25250
Cleveland3(14)5.5(12)0.248(14)15150

Labels: , ,

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link