Tuesday, May 04, 2010

"If the GOP wins only half the seats listed below..."

His editors at National Review Online had a special request for Jim Geraghty:
"Hey Jim, could you put together a list of House races where it’s either an open seat race or a vulnerable incumbent?” the editors ask, oh-so-innocently.

Do they have any idea how much work that entails? Scott Brown won a Senate race in Massachusetts by a healthy margin this year — you can find a list of winnable House seats by starting at page one of Michael Barone’s Almanac of American Politics and working your way to the index. It might be shorter to list the Democrats who
aren’t vulnerable this year.
But he proceeeded to do so.
Once you add up the upcoming special elections, the open-seat races, and the races where there’s some indicator of trouble for a Democratic opponent — a particularly strong challenger, favorable district demographics, surprising fundraising numbers, a particularly weak Democratic incumbent, or a combination of these factors — you come up with more than 90 House races. If the GOP wins only half the seats listed below, they win back the House.
It's a good read, with a lot of painstaking research behind it. And if you're at all interested in the campaign season leading up to the elections, you should be reading Geraghty's blog every day. He's following all of the races, and is on top of everything where there's a competitive election.

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