Monday, May 03, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 5/3/2010

It looked like they might be turning a corner, as their three-game sweep in Toronto brought them to 7-2 over nine games. But any optimism generated was quickly squashed in Baltimore.

  • They've played the entire month of April and the first two games of May, 25 games total, and the Boston Red Sox still do not have a comfortable victory. They have only one win by more than two runs, and that was a two run game through seven innings. They've played badly, and are, frankly, lucky to be only three games under .500 at the moment. When they pitch well, they don't score; when they score, they don't pitch well.
  • It's nice to win one-run games, and it certainly helps your record to win a bunch of one-run games, but if you keep playing one-run games, you aren't going to win them, and it's indicative of not being a very good team. This has not been a very good team so far. As worried as people were about the offense, it's been slightly above average (sixth out of the 14 AL teams) with only two players (Scutaro and Beltre) close to their pre-season expectations.
  • But they've had the worst pitching/defense in the American League so far. Of their "big 3", the "aces" at the top of the rotation, the best ERA is Lackey's below-average 4.50. Lester's at 4.71 and Beckett's over 6. Buchholz has pitched well, though his ERA looks better than it should because he's given up several unearned runs in situations where he's failed to make a good pitch and "pick up" his defense. Wakefield's been bad, Matsuzaka was very good for four innings and then awful for one. The starters have been, as a group, bad, putting up a 4.96 cumulative ERA over the first 25 games.
  • The relievers have been, as a group, better, but that's misleading, too, because they've given up key hits at bad times.
  • Of course, that's what happens when you play close games - every time is a bad time. That's why record in one-run games doesn't correlate well to team quality, why it's a bad indicator of whether a team is a good team or not. If you've got a four run lead, Bard can give up a home run in the 8th and it doesn't hurt that badly. If you've got a one-run lead, you end up losing in extra innings.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - J. D. Drew, who has shown signs of coming to life, hit .304/.407/.783/1.190 on the week with three home runs.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Giving out two this week, to Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz for their outstanding performances in Toronto. Buchholz gave up one run in eight innings, Lester no runs in seven while allowing only one hit and two walks and striking out eleven.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/3/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Tampa Bay5.88(1)3.2(1)0.753(1)196187-1
New York5.67(2)3.71(3)0.685(2)1681680
Minnesota5.2(3)3.8(4)0.64(3)1691690
Detroit4.92(4)4.46(8)0.545(4)141216102
Texas4.44(7)4.12(5)0.534(5)131213120
Toronto4.69(5)4.42(7)0.527(6)14121313-1
Oakland4.35(8)4.27(6)0.508(7)131313130
Seattle3.44(14)3.6(2)0.479(8)12131114-1
Boston4.56(6)5.36(14)0.427(9)111411140
Chicago4.08(10)5.16(11)0.394(10)101510150
Los Angeles3.92(11)5(10)0.391(11)101612142
Kansas City4.12(9)5.28(13)0.388(12)101510150
Cleveland3.54(13)4.83(9)0.361(13)91510141
Baltimore3.6(12)5.16(11)0.341(14)916718-2
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Tampa Bay11745
New York10854
Minnesota10458
Detroit10062
Texas8478
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Tampa Bay12141
New York11151
Minnesota10458
Detroit9072
Texas8676
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Tampa Bay5.67(4)2.83(1)0.78(1)5142-1
New York6.67(1)3.67(4)0.749(2)42420
Detroit5.71(3)3.29(2)0.734(3)52611
Toronto5.86(2)4.14(7)0.653(4)5234-2
Texas4.57(9)3.71(5)0.594(5)43521
Minnesota4.83(6)4.17(8)0.567(6)33330
Boston5.33(5)5.5(12)0.486(7)33330
Baltimore4.67(7)5.17(9)0.454(8)33421
Cleveland4.17(10)5.33(10)0.389(9)24240
Chicago4.67(7)6.5(13)0.353(10)24240
Kansas City2.57(13)3.71(5)0.338(11)25341
Seattle2.33(14)3.5(3)0.323(12)24240
Los Angeles3.33(12)5.33(10)0.297(13)24240
Oakland3.5(11)7.67(14)0.192(14)15150

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