Red Sox - June Audit

The season started with the expectation that the three best teams in the American League were all in the East, and the three would be battling for two playoff spots. The month of June saw expectations met on the field.

Standings:

June arrived with the New York Yankees in first place, Boston 1/2 a game back, and the Rays 5 1/2 out. It ends with Boston up by 2 1/2 over New York and 4 over the Rays. So Tampa was 1 game better than Boston in June, and 4 games better than the Yankees.

AL East - End of May vs. end of June

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA	pythW-L%
NYY	29	21	0.58	--	283	263	0.533
BOS	29	22	0.569	0.5	267	236	0.556
TOR	29	24	0.547	1.5	270	241	0.552
TBR	25	28	0.472	5.5	294	260	0.556
BAL	23	28	0.451	6.5	250	288	0.436
	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA	pythW-L%
BOS	47	30	.610	--	405	332	.590
NYY	44	32	.579	2.5	423	365	.567
TBR	44	35	.557	4	442	349	.606
TOR	41	38	.519	7	391	356	.543
BAL	35	42	.455	12	360	412	.439

For the season, the Red Sox have the best record in the American League and the second-best Pythagorean record, behind the Rays. Tampa has significantly underperformed its Pythagorean.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/1/2009

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Tampa Bay	5.64	(1)	4.51	(5)	0.601	(1)	46	31	42	35	-4
Boston	5.21	(3)	4.28	(2)	0.589	(2)	44	31	46	29	2
New York	5.53	(2)	4.8	(10)	0.565	(3)	42	33	43	32	1
Toronto	5.05	(6)	4.52	(6)	0.551	(4)	42	35	41	36	-1
Detroit	4.83	(8)	4.47	(4)	0.535	(5)	40	35	42	33	2
Minnesota	4.79	(9)	4.44	(3)	0.535	(6)	41	36	39	38	-2
Texas	4.85	(7)	4.61	(8)	0.524	(7)	39	35	40	34	1
Los Angeles	5.08	(5)	4.84	(12)	0.523	(8)	38	35	41	32	3
Chicago	4.35	(11)	4.53	(7)	0.481	(9)	36	39	37	38	1
Seattle	3.88	(14)	4.08	(1)	0.477	(10)	36	39	39	36	3
Cleveland	5.14	(4)	5.49	(14)	0.47	(11)	36	41	31	46	-5
Oakland	4.19	(12)	4.74	(9)	0.443	(12)	33	41	31	43	-2
Baltimore	4.65	(10)	5.31	(13)	0.44	(13)	33	42	34	41	1
Kansas City	4.05	(13)	4.82	(11)	0.421	(14)	31	43	32	42	1

For the month of June, as for the season as a whole, Tampa put up the best Pythagorean, followed by the Red Sox and Yankees. Unlike the rest of the season, their actual record pretty much matched their Pythagorean record.

AL Pythagorean - June

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Tampa Bay	5.69	(1)	3.42	(2)	0.717	(1)	19	7	19	7	0
Boston	5.31	(4)	3.69	(4)	0.66	(2)	17	9	18	8	1
New York	5.38	(3)	3.92	(5)	0.641	(3)	17	9	15	11	-2
Los Angeles	5.69	(1)	4.62	(10)	0.595	(4)	15	11	17	9	2
Minnesota	4.15	(9)	3.44	(3)	0.584	(5)	16	11	15	12	-1
Seattle	3.96	(12)	3.36	(1)	0.575	(6)	14	11	15	10	1
Chicago	4.68	(6)	4.32	(7)	0.536	(7)	15	13	15	13	0
Toronto	4.65	(7)	4.42	(8)	0.523	(8)	14	12	12	14	-2
Oakland	4.11	(10)	3.93	(6)	0.52	(9)	15	13	13	15	-2
Baltimore	4.23	(8)	4.77	(11)	0.445	(10)	12	14	12	14	0
Cleveland	4.78	(5)	5.63	(14)	0.425	(11)	11	16	9	18	-2
Texas	3.81	(13)	4.5	(9)	0.424	(12)	11	15	11	15	0
Detroit	4	(11)	4.79	(12)	0.419	(13)	12	16	15	13	3
Kansas City	3.69	(14)	5	(13)	0.365	(14)	9	17	10	16	1

• I know that Toronto still looks like they are in the race. I still don't buy it.



• All three of the AL East competitors have played more games on the road than at home.
  
  
  

  AL East - Home v. Road

  Games PlayedGames Remaining
  EAST	Home	Away	Home	Away
  Boston	35	42	46	39
  NY Yankees	36	40	45	41
  Tampa Bay	39	40	42	41

  
  



• The most frustrating loss for the Red Sox, before last night, came on June 18, as they trailed Florida 2-1 after 5 1/2 innings when the rains came in a game that was never resumed. June 30 was pain of an entirely different sort, though it was related to the rains once more. John Smoltz was pitching very well when rain stopped the game after 4 1/2. When play resumed an hour and a half later, the bullpens came in, and for one night, the dominant Boston 'pen ... wasn't, losing a game that they led 10-1 after 6 1/2 innings.

Offense:

This table contains some standard offensive numbers and a couple of more advanced metrics. The last two columns are Bill James' Runs Created, and Runs Created per 25 outs, an estimate of how many runs per game a lineup would score with nine hitters performing the way that hitter performed. (The fact that it can end up negative is, indeed, an indicators that these are estimates.)

The Red Sox scored 138 runs in June over 26 games, an average of 5.31 runs per game. That makes June the best offensive month of the season thus far for Boston. Boston has had the 3rd best offense in the AL for the season, and it was 4th best in the AL in June.

Red Sox Offense - June, 2009

Player	Games	GS	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	Outs	RC/25
David Ortiz	24	22	75	13	24	4	0	7	18	12	0	18	0	1	0	1	1	.320	.409	.653	1.062	18.5	54	8.6
Jacoby Ellsbury	23	22	80	11	25	1	2	3	11	9	2	10	12	0	0	1	2	.313	.391	.488	.879	17.2	58	7.4
J.D. Drew	21	20	72	14	21	4	2	3	12	17	1	20	2	0	0	0	1	.292	.433	.528	.961	17.1	52	8.2
Kevin Youkilis	26	25	90	17	22	6	1	4	14	19	3	26	3	1	0	0	3	.244	.393	.467	.860	16.9	72	5.9
Jason Bay	25	25	100	12	23	3	1	4	20	10	1	27	0	1	0	2	2	.230	.301	.400	.701	11.7	82	3.6
Dustin Pedroia	25	25	108	16	24	7	0	0	14	9	0	8	6	1	0	0	1	.222	.282	.287	.569	9.5	86	2.8
Jason Varitek	20	20	64	12	15	7	0	1	10	12	1	13	0	0	0	1	2	.234	.359	.391	.750	9.4	52	4.5
Nick Green	25	21	73	12	17	4	0	3	11	4	2	18	0	0	0	1	4	.233	.288	.411	.698	7.5	61	3.1
Rocco Baldelli	15	7	30	7	10	0	0	2	5	5	0	4	0	0	0	0	2	.333	.429	.533	.962	6.1	22	6.9
Mark Kotsay	17	8	42	3	13	1	0	1	2	2	0	6	0	1	0	0	0	.310	.341	.405	.746	5.5	30	4.6
Mike Lowell	19	17	68	5	14	1	0	2	6	8	0	6	0	1	0	1	2	.206	.286	.309	.595	5.3	58	2.3
Julio Lugo	11	6	26	7	9	2	0	0	3	3	0	8	1	0	1	1	0	.346	.400	.423	.823	5.0	19	6.5
George Kottaras	9	6	23	5	6	4	0	0	3	2	0	5	0	0	0	1	0	.261	.308	.435	.742	3.3	18	4.6
Jeff Bailey	1	1	4	3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.750	.800	1.250	2.050	2.7	1	67.4
Josh Beckett	5	2	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	.200	.200	.800	1.000	1.0	4	6.0
Tim Wakefield	5	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000	.4	1	11.1
Hideki Okajima	13	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.1	1	-2.5
Ramon Ramirez	10	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.1	1	-2.7
Daisuke Matsuzaka	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.2	2	-2.5
John Smoltz	2	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.2	2	-2.7
Jon Lester	5	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.2	5	-1.2
Brad Penny	5	2	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.5	5	-2.5
Total	310	234	876	138	228	44	7	31	130	113	10	178	24	6	3	9	20	.260	.348	.433	.781	135.0	686	4.9

• The big individual story for the month of June is clearly the resurrection of David Ortiz. There's no way that he can put together a productive season, but if what he did in June represents his actual performance level now, then he's going to have just a bad season, and he'll be a strong asset from now 'til the end of the year.



• Jacoby Ellsbury has thrived down in the bottom third of the order. Which is just fine and dandy with me. I keep hear people talking about how the Red Sox best lineup has Ellsbury at the top, and I don't agree. I think that he's more valuable in the 7th spot. Speed is relatively more valuable when the following hitters are relatively less likely move runners. Likewise, On-Base Percentage is relatively more valuable when the following hitters are relatively more likely to move runners. (By move runners, I don't mean "bunt" - I mean draw walks and get hits and get extra-base hits.) A fast runner can score with fewer subsequent hits - at the bottom of the order, there are likely to be fewer subsequent hits. The object of the lineup construction isn't to maximize Ellsbury's runs scored, but the team's runs scored, and I think their better off with the higher OBP guys (Pedroia, Drew) in the first couple of spots, and Ellsbury down low.



• Pedroia had a rotten month (.222/.282/.287/.569). So did Jason Bay (.230/.301/.400/.701). And Nick Green (.233/.288/.411/.698). And Mike Lowell (.206/.286/.309/.595).



• Youkilis finally had a down month (.244/.393/.467/.860). His plate discipline is so good, however, that he's able to keep his OBP at a very good level while only hitting .244.



• And people are still talking about what a disappointment J.D. Drew (.292/.433/.528/.961) is, and what an awful contract he had. Do I think that the Sox would love to have more HR from Drew? Sure. But since a 3-month "adjustment" period (with a hospitalized child), he's been an extremely productive hitter in Boston, and I bet that they're happy to have him. They should be.

Pitching:

The Red Sox allowed 96 runs in June for an average of 3.69 runs per game. This was 4th in the AL for the month. For the season, they're allowing 4.31 runs per game, which is second in the AL behind Seattle.

For June, 88 of the 96 runs were earned, for a staff ERA of 3.44. The starters compiled a 3.27 ERA - the bullpen's was 3.82.

Red Sox Pitching - June, 2009

Player	Games	GS	W	L	Sv	Sho	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	K/BB
Josh Beckett	5	5	4	1	0	1	35.67	25	10	6	1	4	35	1.51	.81	8.75
Jon Lester	5	5	3	1	0	0	34	23	7	7	2	6	40	1.85	.85	6.67
Brad Penny	5	5	1	2	0	0	28.33	28	11	10	3	10	21	3.18	1.34	2.10
Tim Wakefield	5	5	4	0	0	0	31.33	34	12	12	1	5	12	3.45	1.24	2.40
John Smoltz	2	2	0	1	0	0	9	10	6	6	0	2	7	6.00	1.33	3.50
Daisuke Matsuzaka	4	4	1	2	0	0	18.67	31	16	16	4	8	19	7.71	2.09	2.38
Starters	26	26	13	7	0	1	157	151	62	57	11	35	134	3.27	1.18	3.83
Manny Delcarmen	10	0	1	0	0	0	9	9	4	4	0	5	5	4.00	1.56	1.00
Jonathan Papelbon	13	0	1	0	6	0	12	11	1	1	1	6	9	.75	1.42	1.50
Takashi Saito	11	0	2	1	0	0	9.67	6	4	4	1	6	9	3.72	1.24	1.50
Daniel Bard	10	0	0	0	1	0	10	9	8	6	0	7	10	5.40	1.60	1.43
Hideki Okajima	13	0	1	0	0	0	12	12	7	7	2	3	12	5.25	1.25	4.00
Justin Masterson	9	0	0	0	0	0	12.33	12	7	6	1	4	15	4.38	1.30	3.75
Ramon Ramirez	10	0	0	0	0	0	8	7	3	3	3	3	7	3.38	1.25	2.33
Bullpen	76	0	5	1	7	0	73	66	34	31	8	34	67	3.82	1.37	1.97
Total	102	26	18	8	7	1	230	217	96	88	19	69	201	3.44	1.24	2.91

• Matsuzaka struggled and went to the DL. Smoltz came off of his rehab assignment, made his first appearance in the Majors in a year, and struggled mightily in his first inning of work. Other than that, the starting pitching was outstanding.
  
  • Josh Beckett allowed exactly 0 earned runs in 4 of his 5 starts on the month.
  
  
  • Jon Lester allowed 3 runs once, 2 runs once, 1 run twice and 0 runs once.
  
  
  • Those two combined to strike out 75 batters while walking 10.
  
  
  • Brad Penny seems to have found himself, coming back from injury, making 5 starts with a 3.18 ERA.
  
  
  • Wakefield recovered from his May struggles, to post a 3.45 ERA in 5 starts.



• The bullpen ERA jumped by over a full run in the last 2 innings of the month. Through 71 innings in June, the bullpen allowed 21 earned runs for a 2.66 ERA. In the last two innings, they allowed 10, raising the bullpen ERA for the month to 3.82.



• Papelbon is not pitching the way he has in the past. He's allowing more baserunners, more walks and fewer strikeouts. But he's still getting the job done the vast majority of the time. One can speculate that, "wow, he really knows how to bear down and get those last outs." Or one can say, "hmm, maybe that job really doesn't need to be as specialized as it has become - most pitchers pitch most innings without allowing two runs."

Red Sox: May audit

Two months into the season, the AL East is shaping up as extremely competitive, albeit possibly at worse records than we expected. As for the Red Sox, they played better in April than they did in May. The pitching was slightly better in May, but the offense a lot weaker. From a runs scored/runs allowed perspective, they were the third best team in the AL in April, only the sixth best AL team in May. They actually finished April with the best record in the AL, but only had the sixth best AL record in May.

Standings:

AL Pythagorean Standings for the month of May

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	5.1	(6)	3.69	(1)	0.644	(1)	19	10	20	9	1
Detroit	5.14	(5)	3.79	(2)	0.637	(2)	18	10	17	11	-1
New York	5.54	(3)	4.54	(5)	0.59	(3)	17	11	17	11	0
Minnesota	5.6	(2)	4.6	(7)	0.589	(4)	18	12	14	16	-4
Tampa Bay	6.13	(1)	5.23	(11)	0.572	(5)	17	13	16	14	-1
Boston	4.86	(7)	4.45	(3)	0.541	(6)	16	13	15	14	-1
Toronto	4.41	(10)	4.45	(3)	0.496	(7)	14	15	14	15	0
Cleveland	5.23	(4)	5.3	(12)	0.494	(8)	15	15	14	16	-1
Los Angeles	4.57	(9)	4.68	(8)	0.489	(9)	14	14	16	12	2
Baltimore	4.62	(8)	4.97	(9)	0.467	(10)	14	15	14	15	0
Chicago	4.11	(12)	4.57	(6)	0.451	(11)	13	15	13	15	0
Oakland	4.34	(11)	5.69	(14)	0.379	(12)	11	18	11	18	0
Kansas City	4	(13)	5.32	(13)	0.372	(13)	10	18	11	17	1
Seattle	3.59	(14)	5.03	(10)	0.35	(14)	10	19	11	18	1

In the East, they were 1/2 a game behind the Rays and 2 1/2 behind the Yankees for the month, and 1 game better than the Blue Jays and Orioles.

AL East - May 2009

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA
NYY	17	11	0.607	--	155	127
TBR	16	14	0.533	2	184	157
BOS	15	14	0.517	2.5	141	129
BAL	14	15	0.483	3.5	134	144
TOR	14	15	0.483	3.5	128	129

They began the month in a virtual tie for first with Toronto, two games ahead of the Yankees...

AL East - End of April 2009

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA
BOS	14	8	0.636	--	126	107
TOR	15	9	0.625	--	142	112
NYY	12	10	0.545	2	128	136
BAL	9	13	0.409	5	116	144
TBR	9	14	0.391	5.5	110	103

...and finished it 1/2 a game behind New York.

AL East - End of May 2009

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA
NYY	29	21	.580	-	283	263
BOS	29	22	.569	0.5	267	236
TOR	29	24	.547	1.5	270	241
TBR	25	28	.472	5.5	294	260
BAL	23	28	.451	6.5	250	288

• Part of the reason for the weakness of the Red Sox performance may be related to a schedule discrepancy. Over the past several years, they've been a decent team on the road but a great team at home. Well, in May, they played only 11 home games vs. 18 on the road. For the season, they've got five more home games remaining than road games.

Offense:

This table contains some standard offensive numbers and a couple of more advanced metrics. The last two columns are Bill James' Runs Created, and Runs Created per 25 outs, an estimate of how many runs per game a lineup would score with nine hitters performing the way that hitter performed. (The fact that it can end up negative is, indeed, an indicators that these are estimates.)

The Red Sox scored 141 runs in May, an average of 4.86 per game.

Red Sox hitters - May 2009

Player	Games	GS	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	CI	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Jason Bay	28	28	106	19	28	8	0	10	30	14	3	0	0	0	4	0	.264	.355	.623	.978	22.3	6.8
Dustin Pedroia	27	27	104	22	38	8	0	1	13	17	5	1	1	1	5	0	.365	.455	.471	.926	22.0	7.4
Jacoby Ellsbury	27	27	120	16	37	7	1	0	6	6	11	4	1	0	0	0	.308	.346	.383	.730	16.9	4.8
Mike Lowell	28	28	114	13	35	9	0	4	12	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	.307	.325	.491	.816	15.6	4.6
J.D. Drew	27	25	89	17	23	5	0	4	13	15	0	1	0	1	0	0	.258	.368	.449	.817	15.3	5.6
Kevin Youkilis	16	16	55	11	18	5	0	4	16	10	0	0	0	1	2	0	.327	.441	.636	1.078	14.3	9.0
Jason Varitek	22	22	78	9	18	4	0	6	12	10	0	0	0	2	1	0	.231	.311	.513	.824	12.7	5.0
Julio Lugo	20	18	70	8	19	2	1	1	3	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	.271	.329	.371	.700	9.2	4.5
Nick Green	17	14	53	5	17	5	0	0	8	4	1	2	0	0	3	0	.321	.368	.415	.784	6.6	4.0
Jeff Bailey	19	16	59	7	11	3	1	2	6	6	0	0	0	0	4	0	.186	.304	.373	.677	5.8	2.8
David Ortiz	24	24	91	6	13	6	0	1	6	15	0	0	0	0	3	0	.143	.278	.242	.520	5.6	1.7
Rocco Baldelli	9	8	32	3	8	1	1	2	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.250	.273	.531	.804	4.7	4.9
George Kottaras	11	7	27	5	7	4	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	.259	.300	.407	.707	3.5	4.2
Jonathan Van Every	2	1	6	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667	.6	4.0
Gil Velazquez	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	1.000	.000	1.000	.3	-
Team	278	261	1004	141	274	67	4	35	135	109	21	8	2	6	28	0	.273	.350	.452	.802	155.2	5.0

• Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia are doing everything in their power to make Theo Epstein look like a genius. Youkilis has been hot from the word "go," and that continued in May despite missing two weeks to injury. Pedroia's been fighting a groin strain that's cut down on his swing and his power, but all he did in May was hit .365/.455/.471/.926.



• They aren't the only ones hitting. Jason Bay had another very good month, as did J.D. Drew. And I didn't expect six home runs from Jason Varitek this year, never mind in one month, as he hit in May.



• But there are problems. Jacoby Ellsbury hit .307 and stole bases, but hit for no power and took few walks. That's not good enough to make him a good Major League leadoff hitter. For him to be productive without significantly increasing his power, he's got to get his OBP up to at least .375. In order to do that, he's got to hit .330-.340, or he has to walk. There are people who think that he's a budding star. I'm more pessimistic about his future now than I have been at any time before now. He's an OK player, giving you good defense and exciting base-running, but he's not a good offensive player, and won't be without adding something to his game.



• The team continues to miss Jed Lowrie. The SS tandem of LuGreen (or GreenGo - your pick) is not a problem offensively, though not a great asset either. The rest of the SS comment comes later.



• The big problem is, of course, the BIG problem. Is David Ortiz done? He's certainly done nothing positive so far. Indeed, much to my shock and horror, he followed up an awful April (.230/.290/.333/.623) by doing something I'd not thought possible - having a worse - significantly worse - May (.143/.278/.242/.520). So, is he done? I don't know the answer, but I know this - I lived through the last days of Jim Rice, and this is frighteningly reminiscent of that. David Ortiz has been a tremendous hitter for the Boston Red Sox. The organization owes him consideration for all that he's done, and they still owe him money. What they don't owe him is continued at-bats if this is all that he's capable of. I'm not the one to make that decision, and I'm glad that it's not mine to make, but something has to be done, because right now he's hurting the team. Badly.

Pitching:

The Red Sox allowed 129 runs in May, an average of 4.45 per game.

Red Sox pitchers - May 2009

Player	Games	GS	CG	GF	W	L	WPct	Sv	Sho	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	K9	BB9	HR9
Hideki Okajima	11	0	0	0	0	0	-	0	0	12 1/3	6	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	0	8.76	1.46	0
Daniel Bard	6	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	8 1/3	7	1	1	0	3	7	0	0	0	1.08	7.56	3.24	0
Takashi Saito	10	0	0	9	0	0	-	0	0	10	8	2	2	0	2	9	2	0	0	1.8	8.1	1.8	0
Josh Beckett	5	5	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	34	28	11	9	3	12	28	1	0	0	2.38	7.41	3.18	0.79
Ramon Ramirez	14	0	0	4	2	2	0.5	0	0	13 2/3	9	4	4	1	5	8	0	0	1	2.63	5.27	3.29	0.66
Manny Delcarmen	11	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	9	12	4	3	0	2	8	2	0	1	3	8	2	0
Jonathan Papelbon	11	0	0	10	0	1	0	7	0	11 2/3	11	4	4	2	5	15	1	0	0	3.09	11.57	3.86	1.54
Brad Penny	6	6	0	0	3	1	0.75	0	0	36 2/3	46	18	17	2	6	28	1	0	0	4.17	6.87	1.47	0.49
Justin Masterson	7	4	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	32	35	18	18	4	13	25	5	0	1	5.06	7.03	3.66	1.12
Jon Lester	6	6	0	0	3	3	0.5	0	0	35 1/3	41	23	23	6	14	41	1	0	2	5.86	10.44	3.57	1.53
Daisuke Matsuzaka	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10	14	7	7	1	5	10	0	0	4	6.3	9	4.5	0.9
Tim Wakefield	6	6	0	0	4	2	0.667	0	0	34 1/3	43	26	26	5	19	21	5	0	1	6.82	5.5	4.98	1.31
Javier Lopez	3	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	4	7	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0	9	4.5	2.25	2.25
David H Jones	4	0	0	0	0	0	-	0	0	3 2/3	7	7	7	1	4	2	0	0	1	17.18	4.91	9.82	2.45
Totals	102	29	0	29	15	14	3.417	7	0	255	274	129	125	26	93	216	18	0	11	4.41	7.62	3.28	.92

• One of the early concerns was Josh Beckett, who finished the month of April at 2-2 with an ERA over 7. In 5 May starts, he averaged nearly 7 innings per game, going 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA. I'd say that we can stop worrying about Beckett for the time being.



• The next concern would be Jon Lester, who also had a rocky April. Unlike Beckett, he had a rocky May as well. He had a couple of outstanding performances, but has far too often had decent starts ruined by one very bad inning, the kind of very bad inning that he never seemed to have in 2008. And he hasn't been able to "build momentum" by stacking solid starts in succession. There doesn't seem to be anything wrong with him, but he's giving up to many HR, too many big innings, and not showing the kind of consistency that he showed last year. Until he gets straightened out, he's the biggest concern in the starting rotation.



• Well, many would disagree with that last comment and say that Matsuzaka is the biggest concern in the starting rotation. I disagree. He's come back from the DL and pitched close to the way he pitched last year. He's exasperating to watch, with too many baserunners, too many pitches, too much time between pitches and all the rest that comes with the Daisuke package. That said, I expect him to be fine, and effective and productive. Some of the criticism he'll take this year will relate to his W/L record, because too many people don't recognize how little that actually tells about a starting pitcher. It won't be as good as last year's, but he can, and I expect will, be an effective starting pitcher for the rest of this year without it being very good.



• Tim Wakefield saved the staff in April. In May, his 6.82 was the worst on the club, save for Javier Lopez and Hunter Jones who are no longer here.



• Brad Penny had a good month, going over 6 innings per start with a better than league average ERA, increasing his value to the team both staying and as a potential trade chip. Which is very possible, as John Smoltz is probably within two weeks of being ready, and they've already got eight starters (if you include Masterson, Buccholz and Bowden.)



• The 'pen wasn't quite as stellar as in April, but they've continued to pitch well. They took four losses as opposed to two in April. (W/L is not particularly meaningful for starters, but losses can be a useful metric for relievers - they have to have been in late in a situation where their team was ahead or tied in order to get them.)



• Daniel Bard made his Major League debut and has been outstanding, allowing only 1 run over 8 1/3 innings in six appearances. The depth of the system continues to shine.



• "Pitching" includes, of course, defense. And they've got a problem here. I said earlier that they were missing Jed Lowrie - this is why. They've got two shortstops right now, and neither is capable of playing shortstop at a Major League level right now. But Lowrie should be back this month, and that should fix that problem...