Red Sox: May audit

Two months into the season, the AL East is shaping up as extremely competitive, albeit possibly at worse records than we expected. As for the Red Sox, they played better in April than they did in May. The pitching was slightly better in May, but the offense a lot weaker. From a runs scored/runs allowed perspective, they were the third best team in the AL in April, only the sixth best AL team in May. They actually finished April with the best record in the AL, but only had the sixth best AL record in May.

Standings:

AL Pythagorean Standings for the month of May

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	5.1	(6)	3.69	(1)	0.644	(1)	19	10	20	9	1
Detroit	5.14	(5)	3.79	(2)	0.637	(2)	18	10	17	11	-1
New York	5.54	(3)	4.54	(5)	0.59	(3)	17	11	17	11	0
Minnesota	5.6	(2)	4.6	(7)	0.589	(4)	18	12	14	16	-4
Tampa Bay	6.13	(1)	5.23	(11)	0.572	(5)	17	13	16	14	-1
Boston	4.86	(7)	4.45	(3)	0.541	(6)	16	13	15	14	-1
Toronto	4.41	(10)	4.45	(3)	0.496	(7)	14	15	14	15	0
Cleveland	5.23	(4)	5.3	(12)	0.494	(8)	15	15	14	16	-1
Los Angeles	4.57	(9)	4.68	(8)	0.489	(9)	14	14	16	12	2
Baltimore	4.62	(8)	4.97	(9)	0.467	(10)	14	15	14	15	0
Chicago	4.11	(12)	4.57	(6)	0.451	(11)	13	15	13	15	0
Oakland	4.34	(11)	5.69	(14)	0.379	(12)	11	18	11	18	0
Kansas City	4	(13)	5.32	(13)	0.372	(13)	10	18	11	17	1
Seattle	3.59	(14)	5.03	(10)	0.35	(14)	10	19	11	18	1

In the East, they were 1/2 a game behind the Rays and 2 1/2 behind the Yankees for the month, and 1 game better than the Blue Jays and Orioles.

AL East - May 2009

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA
NYY	17	11	0.607	--	155	127
TBR	16	14	0.533	2	184	157
BOS	15	14	0.517	2.5	141	129
BAL	14	15	0.483	3.5	134	144
TOR	14	15	0.483	3.5	128	129

They began the month in a virtual tie for first with Toronto, two games ahead of the Yankees...

AL East - End of April 2009

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA
BOS	14	8	0.636	--	126	107
TOR	15	9	0.625	--	142	112
NYY	12	10	0.545	2	128	136
BAL	9	13	0.409	5	116	144
TBR	9	14	0.391	5.5	110	103

...and finished it 1/2 a game behind New York.

AL East - End of May 2009

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA
NYY	29	21	.580	-	283	263
BOS	29	22	.569	0.5	267	236
TOR	29	24	.547	1.5	270	241
TBR	25	28	.472	5.5	294	260
BAL	23	28	.451	6.5	250	288

• Part of the reason for the weakness of the Red Sox performance may be related to a schedule discrepancy. Over the past several years, they've been a decent team on the road but a great team at home. Well, in May, they played only 11 home games vs. 18 on the road. For the season, they've got five more home games remaining than road games.

Offense:

This table contains some standard offensive numbers and a couple of more advanced metrics. The last two columns are Bill James' Runs Created, and Runs Created per 25 outs, an estimate of how many runs per game a lineup would score with nine hitters performing the way that hitter performed. (The fact that it can end up negative is, indeed, an indicators that these are estimates.)

The Red Sox scored 141 runs in May, an average of 4.86 per game.

Red Sox hitters - May 2009

Player	Games	GS	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	CI	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	RC/25
Jason Bay	28	28	106	19	28	8	0	10	30	14	3	0	0	0	4	0	.264	.355	.623	.978	22.3	6.8
Dustin Pedroia	27	27	104	22	38	8	0	1	13	17	5	1	1	1	5	0	.365	.455	.471	.926	22.0	7.4
Jacoby Ellsbury	27	27	120	16	37	7	1	0	6	6	11	4	1	0	0	0	.308	.346	.383	.730	16.9	4.8
Mike Lowell	28	28	114	13	35	9	0	4	12	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	.307	.325	.491	.816	15.6	4.6
J.D. Drew	27	25	89	17	23	5	0	4	13	15	0	1	0	1	0	0	.258	.368	.449	.817	15.3	5.6
Kevin Youkilis	16	16	55	11	18	5	0	4	16	10	0	0	0	1	2	0	.327	.441	.636	1.078	14.3	9.0
Jason Varitek	22	22	78	9	18	4	0	6	12	10	0	0	0	2	1	0	.231	.311	.513	.824	12.7	5.0
Julio Lugo	20	18	70	8	19	2	1	1	3	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	.271	.329	.371	.700	9.2	4.5
Nick Green	17	14	53	5	17	5	0	0	8	4	1	2	0	0	3	0	.321	.368	.415	.784	6.6	4.0
Jeff Bailey	19	16	59	7	11	3	1	2	6	6	0	0	0	0	4	0	.186	.304	.373	.677	5.8	2.8
David Ortiz	24	24	91	6	13	6	0	1	6	15	0	0	0	0	3	0	.143	.278	.242	.520	5.6	1.7
Rocco Baldelli	9	8	32	3	8	1	1	2	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.250	.273	.531	.804	4.7	4.9
George Kottaras	11	7	27	5	7	4	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	.259	.300	.407	.707	3.5	4.2
Jonathan Van Every	2	1	6	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667	.6	4.0
Gil Velazquez	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	1.000	.000	1.000	.3	-
Team	278	261	1004	141	274	67	4	35	135	109	21	8	2	6	28	0	.273	.350	.452	.802	155.2	5.0

• Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia are doing everything in their power to make Theo Epstein look like a genius. Youkilis has been hot from the word "go," and that continued in May despite missing two weeks to injury. Pedroia's been fighting a groin strain that's cut down on his swing and his power, but all he did in May was hit .365/.455/.471/.926.



• They aren't the only ones hitting. Jason Bay had another very good month, as did J.D. Drew. And I didn't expect six home runs from Jason Varitek this year, never mind in one month, as he hit in May.



• But there are problems. Jacoby Ellsbury hit .307 and stole bases, but hit for no power and took few walks. That's not good enough to make him a good Major League leadoff hitter. For him to be productive without significantly increasing his power, he's got to get his OBP up to at least .375. In order to do that, he's got to hit .330-.340, or he has to walk. There are people who think that he's a budding star. I'm more pessimistic about his future now than I have been at any time before now. He's an OK player, giving you good defense and exciting base-running, but he's not a good offensive player, and won't be without adding something to his game.



• The team continues to miss Jed Lowrie. The SS tandem of LuGreen (or GreenGo - your pick) is not a problem offensively, though not a great asset either. The rest of the SS comment comes later.



• The big problem is, of course, the BIG problem. Is David Ortiz done? He's certainly done nothing positive so far. Indeed, much to my shock and horror, he followed up an awful April (.230/.290/.333/.623) by doing something I'd not thought possible - having a worse - significantly worse - May (.143/.278/.242/.520). So, is he done? I don't know the answer, but I know this - I lived through the last days of Jim Rice, and this is frighteningly reminiscent of that. David Ortiz has been a tremendous hitter for the Boston Red Sox. The organization owes him consideration for all that he's done, and they still owe him money. What they don't owe him is continued at-bats if this is all that he's capable of. I'm not the one to make that decision, and I'm glad that it's not mine to make, but something has to be done, because right now he's hurting the team. Badly.

Pitching:

The Red Sox allowed 129 runs in May, an average of 4.45 per game.

Red Sox pitchers - May 2009

Player	Games	GS	CG	GF	W	L	WPct	Sv	Sho	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	BK	WP	ERA	K9	BB9	HR9
Hideki Okajima	11	0	0	0	0	0	-	0	0	12 1/3	6	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	0	8.76	1.46	0
Daniel Bard	6	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	8 1/3	7	1	1	0	3	7	0	0	0	1.08	7.56	3.24	0
Takashi Saito	10	0	0	9	0	0	-	0	0	10	8	2	2	0	2	9	2	0	0	1.8	8.1	1.8	0
Josh Beckett	5	5	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	34	28	11	9	3	12	28	1	0	0	2.38	7.41	3.18	0.79
Ramon Ramirez	14	0	0	4	2	2	0.5	0	0	13 2/3	9	4	4	1	5	8	0	0	1	2.63	5.27	3.29	0.66
Manny Delcarmen	11	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	9	12	4	3	0	2	8	2	0	1	3	8	2	0
Jonathan Papelbon	11	0	0	10	0	1	0	7	0	11 2/3	11	4	4	2	5	15	1	0	0	3.09	11.57	3.86	1.54
Brad Penny	6	6	0	0	3	1	0.75	0	0	36 2/3	46	18	17	2	6	28	1	0	0	4.17	6.87	1.47	0.49
Justin Masterson	7	4	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	32	35	18	18	4	13	25	5	0	1	5.06	7.03	3.66	1.12
Jon Lester	6	6	0	0	3	3	0.5	0	0	35 1/3	41	23	23	6	14	41	1	0	2	5.86	10.44	3.57	1.53
Daisuke Matsuzaka	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10	14	7	7	1	5	10	0	0	4	6.3	9	4.5	0.9
Tim Wakefield	6	6	0	0	4	2	0.667	0	0	34 1/3	43	26	26	5	19	21	5	0	1	6.82	5.5	4.98	1.31
Javier Lopez	3	0	0	1	0	0	-	0	0	4	7	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0	9	4.5	2.25	2.25
David H Jones	4	0	0	0	0	0	-	0	0	3 2/3	7	7	7	1	4	2	0	0	1	17.18	4.91	9.82	2.45
Totals	102	29	0	29	15	14	3.417	7	0	255	274	129	125	26	93	216	18	0	11	4.41	7.62	3.28	.92

• One of the early concerns was Josh Beckett, who finished the month of April at 2-2 with an ERA over 7. In 5 May starts, he averaged nearly 7 innings per game, going 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA. I'd say that we can stop worrying about Beckett for the time being.



• The next concern would be Jon Lester, who also had a rocky April. Unlike Beckett, he had a rocky May as well. He had a couple of outstanding performances, but has far too often had decent starts ruined by one very bad inning, the kind of very bad inning that he never seemed to have in 2008. And he hasn't been able to "build momentum" by stacking solid starts in succession. There doesn't seem to be anything wrong with him, but he's giving up to many HR, too many big innings, and not showing the kind of consistency that he showed last year. Until he gets straightened out, he's the biggest concern in the starting rotation.



• Well, many would disagree with that last comment and say that Matsuzaka is the biggest concern in the starting rotation. I disagree. He's come back from the DL and pitched close to the way he pitched last year. He's exasperating to watch, with too many baserunners, too many pitches, too much time between pitches and all the rest that comes with the Daisuke package. That said, I expect him to be fine, and effective and productive. Some of the criticism he'll take this year will relate to his W/L record, because too many people don't recognize how little that actually tells about a starting pitcher. It won't be as good as last year's, but he can, and I expect will, be an effective starting pitcher for the rest of this year without it being very good.



• Tim Wakefield saved the staff in April. In May, his 6.82 was the worst on the club, save for Javier Lopez and Hunter Jones who are no longer here.



• Brad Penny had a good month, going over 6 innings per start with a better than league average ERA, increasing his value to the team both staying and as a potential trade chip. Which is very possible, as John Smoltz is probably within two weeks of being ready, and they've already got eight starters (if you include Masterson, Buccholz and Bowden.)



• The 'pen wasn't quite as stellar as in April, but they've continued to pitch well. They took four losses as opposed to two in April. (W/L is not particularly meaningful for starters, but losses can be a useful metric for relievers - they have to have been in late in a situation where their team was ahead or tied in order to get them.)



• Daniel Bard made his Major League debut and has been outstanding, allowing only 1 run over 8 1/3 innings in six appearances. The depth of the system continues to shine.



• "Pitching" includes, of course, defense. And they've got a problem here. I said earlier that they were missing Jed Lowrie - this is why. They've got two shortstops right now, and neither is capable of playing shortstop at a Major League level right now. But Lowrie should be back this month, and that should fix that problem...