Red Sox - June Audit

The season started with the expectation that the three best teams in the American League were all in the East, and the three would be battling for two playoff spots. The month of June saw expectations met on the field.

Standings:

June arrived with the New York Yankees in first place, Boston 1/2 a game back, and the Rays 5 1/2 out. It ends with Boston up by 2 1/2 over New York and 4 over the Rays. So Tampa was 1 game better than Boston in June, and 4 games better than the Yankees.

AL East - End of May vs. end of June

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA	pythW-L%
NYY	29	21	0.58	--	283	263	0.533
BOS	29	22	0.569	0.5	267	236	0.556
TOR	29	24	0.547	1.5	270	241	0.552
TBR	25	28	0.472	5.5	294	260	0.556
BAL	23	28	0.451	6.5	250	288	0.436
	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA	pythW-L%
BOS	47	30	.610	--	405	332	.590
NYY	44	32	.579	2.5	423	365	.567
TBR	44	35	.557	4	442	349	.606
TOR	41	38	.519	7	391	356	.543
BAL	35	42	.455	12	360	412	.439

For the season, the Red Sox have the best record in the American League and the second-best Pythagorean record, behind the Rays. Tampa has significantly underperformed its Pythagorean.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/1/2009

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Tampa Bay	5.64	(1)	4.51	(5)	0.601	(1)	46	31	42	35	-4
Boston	5.21	(3)	4.28	(2)	0.589	(2)	44	31	46	29	2
New York	5.53	(2)	4.8	(10)	0.565	(3)	42	33	43	32	1
Toronto	5.05	(6)	4.52	(6)	0.551	(4)	42	35	41	36	-1
Detroit	4.83	(8)	4.47	(4)	0.535	(5)	40	35	42	33	2
Minnesota	4.79	(9)	4.44	(3)	0.535	(6)	41	36	39	38	-2
Texas	4.85	(7)	4.61	(8)	0.524	(7)	39	35	40	34	1
Los Angeles	5.08	(5)	4.84	(12)	0.523	(8)	38	35	41	32	3
Chicago	4.35	(11)	4.53	(7)	0.481	(9)	36	39	37	38	1
Seattle	3.88	(14)	4.08	(1)	0.477	(10)	36	39	39	36	3
Cleveland	5.14	(4)	5.49	(14)	0.47	(11)	36	41	31	46	-5
Oakland	4.19	(12)	4.74	(9)	0.443	(12)	33	41	31	43	-2
Baltimore	4.65	(10)	5.31	(13)	0.44	(13)	33	42	34	41	1
Kansas City	4.05	(13)	4.82	(11)	0.421	(14)	31	43	32	42	1

For the month of June, as for the season as a whole, Tampa put up the best Pythagorean, followed by the Red Sox and Yankees. Unlike the rest of the season, their actual record pretty much matched their Pythagorean record.

AL Pythagorean - June

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Tampa Bay	5.69	(1)	3.42	(2)	0.717	(1)	19	7	19	7	0
Boston	5.31	(4)	3.69	(4)	0.66	(2)	17	9	18	8	1
New York	5.38	(3)	3.92	(5)	0.641	(3)	17	9	15	11	-2
Los Angeles	5.69	(1)	4.62	(10)	0.595	(4)	15	11	17	9	2
Minnesota	4.15	(9)	3.44	(3)	0.584	(5)	16	11	15	12	-1
Seattle	3.96	(12)	3.36	(1)	0.575	(6)	14	11	15	10	1
Chicago	4.68	(6)	4.32	(7)	0.536	(7)	15	13	15	13	0
Toronto	4.65	(7)	4.42	(8)	0.523	(8)	14	12	12	14	-2
Oakland	4.11	(10)	3.93	(6)	0.52	(9)	15	13	13	15	-2
Baltimore	4.23	(8)	4.77	(11)	0.445	(10)	12	14	12	14	0
Cleveland	4.78	(5)	5.63	(14)	0.425	(11)	11	16	9	18	-2
Texas	3.81	(13)	4.5	(9)	0.424	(12)	11	15	11	15	0
Detroit	4	(11)	4.79	(12)	0.419	(13)	12	16	15	13	3
Kansas City	3.69	(14)	5	(13)	0.365	(14)	9	17	10	16	1

• I know that Toronto still looks like they are in the race. I still don't buy it.



• All three of the AL East competitors have played more games on the road than at home.
  
  
  

  AL East - Home v. Road

  Games PlayedGames Remaining
  EAST	Home	Away	Home	Away
  Boston	35	42	46	39
  NY Yankees	36	40	45	41
  Tampa Bay	39	40	42	41

  
  



• The most frustrating loss for the Red Sox, before last night, came on June 18, as they trailed Florida 2-1 after 5 1/2 innings when the rains came in a game that was never resumed. June 30 was pain of an entirely different sort, though it was related to the rains once more. John Smoltz was pitching very well when rain stopped the game after 4 1/2. When play resumed an hour and a half later, the bullpens came in, and for one night, the dominant Boston 'pen ... wasn't, losing a game that they led 10-1 after 6 1/2 innings.

Offense:

This table contains some standard offensive numbers and a couple of more advanced metrics. The last two columns are Bill James' Runs Created, and Runs Created per 25 outs, an estimate of how many runs per game a lineup would score with nine hitters performing the way that hitter performed. (The fact that it can end up negative is, indeed, an indicators that these are estimates.)

The Red Sox scored 138 runs in June over 26 games, an average of 5.31 runs per game. That makes June the best offensive month of the season thus far for Boston. Boston has had the 3rd best offense in the AL for the season, and it was 4th best in the AL in June.

Red Sox Offense - June, 2009

Player	Games	GS	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	K	SB	CS	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS	RC	Outs	RC/25
David Ortiz	24	22	75	13	24	4	0	7	18	12	0	18	0	1	0	1	1	.320	.409	.653	1.062	18.5	54	8.6
Jacoby Ellsbury	23	22	80	11	25	1	2	3	11	9	2	10	12	0	0	1	2	.313	.391	.488	.879	17.2	58	7.4
J.D. Drew	21	20	72	14	21	4	2	3	12	17	1	20	2	0	0	0	1	.292	.433	.528	.961	17.1	52	8.2
Kevin Youkilis	26	25	90	17	22	6	1	4	14	19	3	26	3	1	0	0	3	.244	.393	.467	.860	16.9	72	5.9
Jason Bay	25	25	100	12	23	3	1	4	20	10	1	27	0	1	0	2	2	.230	.301	.400	.701	11.7	82	3.6
Dustin Pedroia	25	25	108	16	24	7	0	0	14	9	0	8	6	1	0	0	1	.222	.282	.287	.569	9.5	86	2.8
Jason Varitek	20	20	64	12	15	7	0	1	10	12	1	13	0	0	0	1	2	.234	.359	.391	.750	9.4	52	4.5
Nick Green	25	21	73	12	17	4	0	3	11	4	2	18	0	0	0	1	4	.233	.288	.411	.698	7.5	61	3.1
Rocco Baldelli	15	7	30	7	10	0	0	2	5	5	0	4	0	0	0	0	2	.333	.429	.533	.962	6.1	22	6.9
Mark Kotsay	17	8	42	3	13	1	0	1	2	2	0	6	0	1	0	0	0	.310	.341	.405	.746	5.5	30	4.6
Mike Lowell	19	17	68	5	14	1	0	2	6	8	0	6	0	1	0	1	2	.206	.286	.309	.595	5.3	58	2.3
Julio Lugo	11	6	26	7	9	2	0	0	3	3	0	8	1	0	1	1	0	.346	.400	.423	.823	5.0	19	6.5
George Kottaras	9	6	23	5	6	4	0	0	3	2	0	5	0	0	0	1	0	.261	.308	.435	.742	3.3	18	4.6
Jeff Bailey	1	1	4	3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.750	.800	1.250	2.050	2.7	1	67.4
Josh Beckett	5	2	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	.200	.200	.800	1.000	1.0	4	6.0
Tim Wakefield	5	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000	.4	1	11.1
Hideki Okajima	13	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.1	1	-2.5
Ramon Ramirez	10	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.1	1	-2.7
Daisuke Matsuzaka	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.2	2	-2.5
John Smoltz	2	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.2	2	-2.7
Jon Lester	5	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.2	5	-1.2
Brad Penny	5	2	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	-.5	5	-2.5
Total	310	234	876	138	228	44	7	31	130	113	10	178	24	6	3	9	20	.260	.348	.433	.781	135.0	686	4.9

• The big individual story for the month of June is clearly the resurrection of David Ortiz. There's no way that he can put together a productive season, but if what he did in June represents his actual performance level now, then he's going to have just a bad season, and he'll be a strong asset from now 'til the end of the year.



• Jacoby Ellsbury has thrived down in the bottom third of the order. Which is just fine and dandy with me. I keep hear people talking about how the Red Sox best lineup has Ellsbury at the top, and I don't agree. I think that he's more valuable in the 7th spot. Speed is relatively more valuable when the following hitters are relatively less likely move runners. Likewise, On-Base Percentage is relatively more valuable when the following hitters are relatively more likely to move runners. (By move runners, I don't mean "bunt" - I mean draw walks and get hits and get extra-base hits.) A fast runner can score with fewer subsequent hits - at the bottom of the order, there are likely to be fewer subsequent hits. The object of the lineup construction isn't to maximize Ellsbury's runs scored, but the team's runs scored, and I think their better off with the higher OBP guys (Pedroia, Drew) in the first couple of spots, and Ellsbury down low.



• Pedroia had a rotten month (.222/.282/.287/.569). So did Jason Bay (.230/.301/.400/.701). And Nick Green (.233/.288/.411/.698). And Mike Lowell (.206/.286/.309/.595).



• Youkilis finally had a down month (.244/.393/.467/.860). His plate discipline is so good, however, that he's able to keep his OBP at a very good level while only hitting .244.



• And people are still talking about what a disappointment J.D. Drew (.292/.433/.528/.961) is, and what an awful contract he had. Do I think that the Sox would love to have more HR from Drew? Sure. But since a 3-month "adjustment" period (with a hospitalized child), he's been an extremely productive hitter in Boston, and I bet that they're happy to have him. They should be.

Pitching:

The Red Sox allowed 96 runs in June for an average of 3.69 runs per game. This was 4th in the AL for the month. For the season, they're allowing 4.31 runs per game, which is second in the AL behind Seattle.

For June, 88 of the 96 runs were earned, for a staff ERA of 3.44. The starters compiled a 3.27 ERA - the bullpen's was 3.82.

Red Sox Pitching - June, 2009

Player	Games	GS	W	L	Sv	Sho	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	K/BB
Josh Beckett	5	5	4	1	0	1	35.67	25	10	6	1	4	35	1.51	.81	8.75
Jon Lester	5	5	3	1	0	0	34	23	7	7	2	6	40	1.85	.85	6.67
Brad Penny	5	5	1	2	0	0	28.33	28	11	10	3	10	21	3.18	1.34	2.10
Tim Wakefield	5	5	4	0	0	0	31.33	34	12	12	1	5	12	3.45	1.24	2.40
John Smoltz	2	2	0	1	0	0	9	10	6	6	0	2	7	6.00	1.33	3.50
Daisuke Matsuzaka	4	4	1	2	0	0	18.67	31	16	16	4	8	19	7.71	2.09	2.38
Starters	26	26	13	7	0	1	157	151	62	57	11	35	134	3.27	1.18	3.83
Manny Delcarmen	10	0	1	0	0	0	9	9	4	4	0	5	5	4.00	1.56	1.00
Jonathan Papelbon	13	0	1	0	6	0	12	11	1	1	1	6	9	.75	1.42	1.50
Takashi Saito	11	0	2	1	0	0	9.67	6	4	4	1	6	9	3.72	1.24	1.50
Daniel Bard	10	0	0	0	1	0	10	9	8	6	0	7	10	5.40	1.60	1.43
Hideki Okajima	13	0	1	0	0	0	12	12	7	7	2	3	12	5.25	1.25	4.00
Justin Masterson	9	0	0	0	0	0	12.33	12	7	6	1	4	15	4.38	1.30	3.75
Ramon Ramirez	10	0	0	0	0	0	8	7	3	3	3	3	7	3.38	1.25	2.33
Bullpen	76	0	5	1	7	0	73	66	34	31	8	34	67	3.82	1.37	1.97
Total	102	26	18	8	7	1	230	217	96	88	19	69	201	3.44	1.24	2.91

• Matsuzaka struggled and went to the DL. Smoltz came off of his rehab assignment, made his first appearance in the Majors in a year, and struggled mightily in his first inning of work. Other than that, the starting pitching was outstanding.
  
  • Josh Beckett allowed exactly 0 earned runs in 4 of his 5 starts on the month.
  
  
  • Jon Lester allowed 3 runs once, 2 runs once, 1 run twice and 0 runs once.
  
  
  • Those two combined to strike out 75 batters while walking 10.
  
  
  • Brad Penny seems to have found himself, coming back from injury, making 5 starts with a 3.18 ERA.
  
  
  • Wakefield recovered from his May struggles, to post a 3.45 ERA in 5 starts.



• The bullpen ERA jumped by over a full run in the last 2 innings of the month. Through 71 innings in June, the bullpen allowed 21 earned runs for a 2.66 ERA. In the last two innings, they allowed 10, raising the bullpen ERA for the month to 3.82.



• Papelbon is not pitching the way he has in the past. He's allowing more baserunners, more walks and fewer strikeouts. But he's still getting the job done the vast majority of the time. One can speculate that, "wow, he really knows how to bear down and get those last outs." Or one can say, "hmm, maybe that job really doesn't need to be as specialized as it has become - most pitchers pitch most innings without allowing two runs."