World Series sweep

Congratulations Boston Red Sox!

On April 18, the Red Sox beat Toronto 4-1 to run their record to 8-5, and take sole possession of first place. They would never relinquish it. An 11-3 run through the playoffs, with sweeps in two of the three rounds, gave the Boston Red Sox their second World Series title in four years.

• Congratulations to the Colorado Rockies, who put together one of the most spectacular late-season, post-season runs in baseball history, then were (probably) hurt by the schedule. Whether having only a couple of days off as opposed to eight would have made a difference, is, of course, an open question.



• I thought, going in, that the Red Sox were the better team, and I still think it. Equally of course, that's absolutely no guarantee that the better team wins, and the idiots on Boston radio this morning talking of how the Red Sox would have swept even if it were a 25 game series are just that - idiots. But all of the evidence suggested, and still suggests, that the Boston Red Sox were the best team in baseball this year. The best team doesn't always win the World Series - in fact, in the era of three-playoff rounds, the best team doesn't even often win the World Series - but the best team won the World Series in 2007.
  
  
• There is still some question about who, exactly, worked out the trade that brought Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Boston. At the time, Theo Epstein was not the GM of the team - officially, they did not have one. Several weeks later, Jed Hoyer and Ben Cherington were named co-GMs, though, by that time, people expected Epstein to return. In any event, there have been mixed reports since then about whether Epstein would have made the trade. There have been reports that he didn't like the trade, there have been reports that John Henry didn't like the trade. And there's no question that they, like everyone else in baseball, would love to have Hanley Ramirez.
  
  I mention this this morning because it seems relevant. Whoever made the deal, however many MVP awards Hanley Ramirez wins, this was a great trade for Boston. Josh Beckett was the MVP of the ALCS, and probably the MVP of the post-season. Mike Lowell was the MVP of the World Series. When a single trade brings you key pieces, key contributors to a World Series, that's a great trade.



• Key parts were also played by Dustin Pedroia, John Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny Delcarmen and Jonathan Papelbon, each of whom is a product of the Boston farm system within the past three years. It seems that Clay Buchholz is also ready, and Michael Bowden and Jed Lowrie are getting close. The farm system has had a very productive stretch.



• The international scouting department needs to take a bow as well. Daisuke Matsuzaka has disappointed some people, but pitched well in game 7 of the ALCS, and pitched well in the World Series. Hidecki Okajima has been a revelation.



• I thought that Terry Francona made a mistake bringing Javier Lopez into game 3. Other than that, he didn't do anything that I objected to. Every move didn't work, but it all made sense. And again, we see how the post-season is different, and managed differently, than the regular season. Francona did a great job during the regular season, not just leading his team to the best record in baseball, but doing it in a way that left them ready to play post-season baseball. And then he managed the post-season aggressively, not leaving anyone in trouble, and making sure that his best pitchers pitched the highest-leverage situations.



• As good a year as Mike Lowell had, someone's going to sign him for too much money, and too long a contract. It may end up being the Red Sox, as, just was the case with Varitek four years ago, they don't have a good back-up plan. Well, they probably do, but I can't see it, at the moment. I'd certainly rather overpay Lowell for the next three years than take on the amount/length that Alex Rodriguez will be looking for.



• There are two significant free agents on this team, Mike Lowell and Curt Schilling. There will be work to do on the bottom half of the bullpen. Varitek's aging, Mirabelli needs to be replaced. So there are things to do. That said, there is every reason to expect this team to enter the 2008 season as one of the pre-season favorites again.

Quote of the day

I stopped reading Dan Shaughnessy years ago, but this, quoted by Jim Armstrong in the Denver Post, is a great line. Talking about Ryan Speier, who came in from the bullpen on Thursday night to issue 3 consecutive bases loaded walks:

"Eddie Cicotte of the 1919 White Sox didn't do that badly and he was trying to lose."

2007 World Series - Game 2

The game was very different, but the outcome was the same. After putting up 13 runs in game 1, Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies bullpen held Boston to 2 runs in game 2. Unfortunately for them, they scored only 1 for the second straight night, and the Red Sox took a 2-0 lead in the series. Game 3, with Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Aaron Cook, will take place Saturday night in Colorado.

• I liked most of what I heard from Terry Francona when they brought him in almost four years ago. And as I've watched him, I've thought, and still think, that he does an excellent job. When they went to the playoffs in 2004, I thought that he did an outstanding job when the job was difficult, in the ALCS. Not only providing whatever leadership that the manager needs to provide to keep the players loose but still focused, so that they would perform, but tactically. He did not overreact to the brief slumps by Damon and Bellhorn that had people calling for their benching, and he didn't manage the pitching staff the way he managed it during the long season. Once again, this year, he took a lot of abuse from certain segments of the fanbase whenever they lost a game, because he pulled pitchers too soon, or left them in too long, or didn't bring in Okajima or Papelbon soon enough. And again, over the past couple of weeks, we see the virtue of his handling of the team. Cleveland's "aces" were worn out - the Red Sox look fresh.
  
  And in the last 3 games, he's used Okajima to get 4 innings, and 3 2/3 innings. That never happened during the regular season. He has done a great job. The best Red Sox manager in my lifetime.



• While they didn't score many runs, the Red Sox continued to grind on the Rockies pitching staff. Despite the fact that Jimenez only threw 19 pitches through 2 innings, when they knocked him out of the game in the 5th, hise pitch count was up to 91.



• Jacoby Ellsbury is now 1-7 in the World Series, 3-16 in the post-season. Given the size of the Colorado outfield, and the offensive bonus that he's not giving them, it would not surprise me to see Coco Crisp back in center for game 3. They decided before the play-offs started, that Crisp in center gave them a better chance of winning than Ellsbury in center. Crisp struggled, but so has Ellsbury. Given the defensive difference that still exists, I think that it makes sense to go back to Coco.

2007 World Series - Game 1

Is there a better way for the home team to start a game? 1-2-3 on strikeouts in the top of the 1st, lead-off home run in the bottom of the 1st.

• After Boston beat Cleveland in game 1 of the ALCS, the talk in Boston was of the inevitability of the Red Sox winning the series. After Cleveland beat Boston in game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead, the same people wanted Terry Francona fired. This morning, it is once again all sunshine and lollipops, the Rockies are psychologically damage, the series will be a sweep featuring four blowouts, the Rockies can't play with the Red Sox, yadda, yadda, yadda. All hogwash, in other words. The Red Sox are up 1-0. Period.


• Regardless of Chris Berman's repeated comments about "the bye week" hurting the Rockies, it is impossible to know whether last night's performance was a result of rust, nerves, Boston's performance, or just a bad night. Or some combination of those factors. It certainly seems possible that all of those played into it. Some of the Rockies mentioned rust and game speed, though the manager won't let them have it as an excuse.


• By the numbers:
  
  • Three Boston pitchers threw 119 pitches. Six Rockies pitchers threw 197.
  
  
  • 13-1 - largest margin of victory in game 1 in World Series history. If I'm not mistaken, the teams tied for 2nd now, with an 11-run game 1 margin, both lost the series.
  
  
  • 8 doubles - ties World Series Record
  
  
  • 9 extra-base hits - ties World Series record
  
  
  • 13 runs scored - record for runs in game 1 of the World Series
  
  
  • 3rd consecutive post-season game scoring 10 runs or more - post-season record
  
  
  • 2-out rally with 9 consecutive batters reaching base - first time in World Series history
  
  
  • As part of that 5th inning rally, the Red Sox drew three consecutive bases-loaded walks. No one has said that that's a record, not that I've seen anyway, but I find it hard to believe that it wouldn't be.


• In the first five innings, Josh Beckett threw 79 pitches. Four Rockies pitchers combined to throw 156.


• "If Ubaldo goes more than six, it will be an upset of Buster Douglas proportions."
  

  - Gerry Callahan, as I'm writing

  
  He's gone more than 6 innings 7 times in 17 starts. He's gone 6 even in 3 more. Even understanding that the Red Sox have both a better and more patient offense than most of the teams he's done it against, it would be an upset on the order of flipping heads twice in a row. Callahan's obviously not a rational unbiased analyst, but that's the level of analysis that is to be expected from WEEI.


• Tracy Ringolsby, Rocky Mountain News: "It was so frightening," one press box wag announced, "that Stephen King left."
  Woody Paige, Denver Post: "Novelist Stephen King left after the fifth inning, apparently never having seen anything that scary."


• In my preview, I reference the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds. I was surprised by the fact that the Sox were such a big underdog in that model, and had sent an email to Clay Davenport asking what I was missing. Well, I apparently wasn't the only one who questioned him. He made some changes when the pitching rotations were finally announced, and the odds changed significantly. Boston doesn't hit lefties well, neither does Colorado. Replacing Morales with Cook and Wakefield with Lester both change the odds in Boston's favor. From 56-44 Colorado, it went to 59-41 Boston.
  
  He then went through further exercise, doing game by game calculations based on adjustments to hitter and pitcher handedness, with the following results:
  
  
  
  

  Odds of winning series

  Team	Series Result	Odds
  Boston	4-0	12.7%
  	4-1	20.9%
  	4-2	23.4%
  	4-3	16.6%
  Boston Wins (total)		73.6%
  Colorado	4-3	10.3%
  	4-2	7.5%
  	4-1	6.1%
  	4-0	2.5%
  Colorado Wins (total)		26.4%

  
  
  So the first pass of the generic playoff odds simulation suggested that the Rockies were big favorites. The adjusted version suggested that the Red Sox were huge favorites. Today's update isn't up yet, but obviously, the odds of Colorado sweeping are gone and the odds of Colorado winning at all are down.


• All of which is interesting, but, to reiterate an earlier point, the Red Sox are up 1-0. Period.

World Series Preview

• The Boston Red Sox are going to the World Series for the 11th time overall, 5th time in the last 41 years, and 2nd time in the last 4 years. The Colorado Rockies are making their first appearance in the "Fall Classic."



• The objective rankings that I've been tracking this post-season...
  
  Bill James Playoff Predictor:
  
  1. 1 pt to the lead team for each half-game in the standings (BOS - 14)
  2. 3 pts to the team that scored more runs (BOS - 3)
  3. 14 pts to the team with fewer doubles (COL - 14)
  4. 12 pts to the team with more triples (COL - 12)
  5. 10 pts to the team with more home runs (COL - 10)
  6. 8 pts to the team with the lower team batting average (BOS - 8)
  7. 8 pts to the team that committed fewer errors (COL - 8)
  8. 7 pts to the team that turned more double plays (COL - 7)
  9. 7 pts to the team that walked more batters (COL - 7)
  10. 19 pts to the team that had more shutouts (BOS - 19)
  11. 15 pts to the team whose ERA was lower (BOS - 15)
  12. 12 pts to the team that has been in postseason most recently or
      went further (BOS - 12)
  13. 12 pts to the team that won season series (COL - 12)
  
  BOS - 71, COL - 70
  
  Essentially a tie.
  
  
  Baseball Prospectus "Secret Sauce" rankings:
  (Overall ranking is the sum of rankings in various pitching/defense categories, so lower is better)
  

  Boston (7.5) over Colorado (57)




• The Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds Report has the Red Sox as the 2nd-least likely series winner for the whole post-season. The unlikeliest? Colorado vs. Philadelphia.



• Nice preview sheet from the Washington Post...



• David Pinto's preview at The Sporting News. And if you haven't already got his Baseball Musings page linked, well, now's the time to do it.



• Chris Lynch doesn't think that the Rockies pitching rotation makes sense.



• Will Carroll's World Series Health Report has everyone , other than Wakefield, ready to go. "If the World Series is supposed to be the two best teams playing their best, we just might get that this year."



• On September 15, if anyone had asked which of these teams were the better team, the question would have been laughable. The Red Sox record was 13 games better, they had scored 50 more runs, and allowed 100 fewer. Since that day, however, the Rockies have taken the field 22 times, and won 21 games. It's a historic run, made more historic by when it occurred. One more loss in the first 15 games of that stretch, and Colorado would have been golfing for the last three weeks.
  
  
  
  

  Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies - 2007

  Through September 15:
  AL	W	L	RS	RA	Pythagorean %	Pyth Wins	"Luck"
  Boston	90	59	804	602	.629	94	-4
  Colorado	76	72	758	707	.532	79	-3
  Since September 15
  Boston	13	10	133	91	.667	15	-2
  Colorado	21	1	136	67	.785	17	4
  Totals (include playoffs)
  Boston	103	69	937	693	.635	109	-6
  Colorado	97	73	894	774	.566	96	1

  
  
  Here's what we know about winning streaks, however - they all end. I guess we don't know that about this one, but given that every one we've ever seen has ended, I think that this one is a good bet to end, also. The Colorado Rockies, I feel confident in saying, have not lost for the last time in franchise history.
  
  And they should have lost a couple more times in that stretch. Trevor Hoffman had a bad inning at a bad time, and Matt Holliday has still not scored the winning run in that game. Everything that could have gone wrong for the Arizona Diamonbacks, things that they could control and things that they could not, went wrong. So it is safe to say that the Colorado Rockies are probably the hottest team ever to start a World Series.
  
  The question is, does that mean anything? Looking at the course of the season, it seems to me that Boston was a better team than Colorado this year, and not just by a little. I'd rather have Josh Beckett on the mound tonight than anyone else in baseball, and what happens to the Rockies if, following 8 days off, they come out rusty and get shut down? They're 7-0 in the playoffs. What happens to them if they fall behind in a series?
  
  But it's baseball. The fact that streaks end doesn't mean that it will end tonight. I can (and do) think that the Red Sox are the better team, but that doesn't mean that I think that they'll win. I think that they'll play, and they'll win or they'll lose. It's a fools errand to predict the outcome of a 7-game series.



• By VORP, Colorado's offense was better than Boston's. Boston's pitching was better than Colorado's.
  
  
  

  Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies - 2007

  	Vorp - offense	Vorp - Pitching	Total
  Boston	290.2	244.3	534.5
  Colorado	291.3	198.5	489.8

  
  By EQA, the Red Sox offense is better.
  
  
  

  Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies - 2007

  Team	EQA	EQR	R-Act	R-Est	Diff
  BOS-A	0.27	783.6	867	904	-37
  COL-N	0.263	750.9	851	842	9

  
  The offense is actually not as close as it looks, at least by VORP, as Boston's numbers include David Ortiz as a DH, and Colorado's includes their pitchers. Boston's runs scored total was significantly less than the offensive component performance would lead you to expect. All told, it looks like the offenses are pretty even.



• Boston's starting pitching looks significantly better. Looking at some of the more advanced Sabrmetric stats from Baseball Prospectus:
  
  
  

  Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies - 2007

  	NAME	TEAM	LG	YEAR	GS	IP	E(W)	E(L)	SNLVAR	E(Win%)
  Boston	Josh Beckett	BOS	AL	2007	30	200.7	13.7	7.8	6.2	0.636
  Boston	Daisuke Matsuzaka	BOS	AL	2007	32	204.7	13.4	10.7	5.1	0.556
  Boston	Curt Schilling	BOS	AL	2007	24	151	10	7.3	4.3	0.578
  Boston	Jon Lester	BOS	AL	2007	11	63	3.8	3.4	1.1	0.532
  	NAME	TEAM	LG	YEAR	GS	IP	E(W)	E(L)	SNLVAR	E(Win%)
  Colorado	Jeff Francis	COL	NL	2007	34	215.3	14.7	10.7	5.4	0.578
  Colorado	Josh Fogg	COL	NL	2007	29	165.7	9.9	10.7	2.3	0.48
  Colorado	Aaron Cook	COL	NL	2007	25	166	9.1	10	2.8	0.477
  Colorado	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	NL	2007	15	82	5.3	5.1	1.8	0.513

  
  



• The Baseball Crank thinks that "Boston is clearly the stronger team, but the Rockies' hot streak is just impossible to project one way or another..."



• I repeat - it's a fools errand to predict the outcome of a 7-game series. The better team might win, the better team might lose, and the result of this series won't tell us which is which.

Championship series - objective ranking wrap-up

I ran the Bill James Playoff Predictor for the Division Series and the Championship Series games. I also looked at the Baseball Prospectus objective ranking system. Here's the wrap-up for the post-season so far. World Series post later today or tomorrow...

Bill James Playoff Predictor was 1-1 in the Championship Series round.

Right:
Boston (100) over Cleveland (39)

Wrong:
Arizona (77) lost to Colorado (30)



Baseball Prospectus' "Secret Sauce", which was 1-3 in the DS round, was 1-1 in the CS round.


Right:

Boston (7.5) over Cleveland (48)

Wrong:

Arizona (29) lost to Colorado (57)


For the post-season so far:

• Bill James Playoff Predictor
  Boston (79) beat Los Angeles of Anaheim (33)
  Arizona (92) beat Chicago (33)
  Boston (100) over Cleveland (39)
  
  Wrong:
  New York (83) lost to Cleveland (60)
  Arizona (77) lost to Colorado (30)
  
  Tie (essentially):
  Colorado (58) beat Philadelphia (59)




• Baseball Prospectus' "Secret Sauce"
  Right (lower is better):
  Boston (7.5) beat Los Angeles of Anaheim (27.5)
  Boston (7.5) over Cleveland (48)
  
  Wrong:
  New York (32.5) lost to Cleveland (48)
  Arizona (29) beat Chicago (22)
  Colorado (57) beat Philadelphia (49)
  Colorado (57) over Arizona (29)