Monday, August 11, 2014

Monday pythagorean - 8/11/2014

The best week in over a month sees the Red Sox win a series, going 2-1 in LAnaheim, and split the week, going 3-3. This is the exact right situation for using the phrase, "too little, too late..."
  • The trades were supposed to weaken the pitching but strengthen the offense. We've seen a little of the former (just a little) and not much of the latter thus far.


  • The Red Sox scored and allowed 17 runs this week, 2.833 runs per game (12th) and 2.833 runs allowed/game (5th). That sounds like the pitching was pretty good and the offense was pretty bad. Which is accurate. In fact, the pitching was even better, and the offense even worse, than it sounds, because, with Saturday's 19-inning effort, they played seven games worth of innings, not just six.


  • How bad was the offense? The team hit (.173/.220/.248/.468, 10.23 runs created, 1.31 RC/25 outs) for the week. They were actually lucky to score 17 runs, as they "created" only 10.


  • There were only two Red Sox who managed to reach an OBP of .300 with more than that 2 at-bats this week, Dustin Pedroia (.296/.345/.333/.678, 3.29 runs created, 4.12 RC/25 outs) and Mike Napoli (.211/.375/.474/.849, 3.60 runs created, 6.00 RC/25 outs). There was only one who managed a SLG of .500 with more than 2 at-bats this week, Yoenis Cespedes (.296/.296/.519/.815, 4.12 runs created, 5.43 RC/25 outs).


  • Six position players - Daniel Butler, David Ortiz, Daniel Nava, Xander Bogaerts, Kelly Johnson and Jackie Bradley, Jr. - were negative in runs created this week, hitting a combined (.083/.127/.125/.252, -1.89 runs created, -.66 RC/25 outs) in 72 at-bats. Bogaerts was 2 for 23. Ortiz was 1 for 15. Bradley was 0 for 11.


  • From June 19 through July 26, Jackie Bradley, Jr. hit .304/.354/.380/.734 and there were hopes that he had the offense thing figured out. In the second inning of that July 26 game in Tampa, he singled. Since that single, he is 0 for 35 with 0 walks and 18 strike outs (.000/.000/.000/.000).


  • You don't see games that go 19 innings very often. The Red Sox, before Saturday night, hadn't gone more than 17 in eight years, since 2006. So it's kind of a funny quirk to see another 19 inning game the very next day, as Detroit's bullpen melts down late and the Tigers lose to the Blue Jays in 19 innings on Sunday.


  • The Red Sox starting pitching was outstanding this week, as the starters averaged 6 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.70. Of course, if you're going to win three games while averaging 2 runs/game scored, you're going to need outstanding pitching. For the most part, they got it this week.


  • I'm not going to say that this is the reason they lost on Saturday, because you have no way of knowing what anyone out of the bullpen may have done in the 8th or 9th, but I was surprised that Buchholz went out for the 8th. And I thought it was a mistake. And this is not second-guessing - it's first-guessing, as I thought it was a mistake before events revealed it to be, if not a mistake, at the very least not the way to keep the Angels scoreless in the 8th.


  • That said, the way that game started, with two Angels' runs in the first, it looked like we were headed for another Buchholz disaster start. Instead, we got one of the very positive developments of the week, as he settled down immediately, and was very effective for the next seven-plus innings.


  • Tough week for Brandon Workman, with two losses in one start and one very brief relief appearance. He had the worst start (although at four runs over 5 1/3 innings, it wasn't horrible) and then allowed the Pujols HR in the 19th inning, facing just one batter and allowing the game-ending HR.

    He was still better than most of the offensive players.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - There's not a lot to choose from here. Yoenis Cespedes (.296/.296/.519/.815, 4.12 runs created, 5.43 RC/25 outs) led the team in runs created, but it took him a lot of outs to do it. Mike Napoli (.211/.375/.474/.849, 3.60 runs created, 6.00 RC/25 outs) took some walks and hit for some power, but there's that 4-19 (.211). In the end, there's just not a worthy candidate, so there's no Player of the Week for this week.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Joe Kelly allowed just one run over seven innings in his Red Sox debut. Allen Webster (2 runs, 6 1/3) and Clay Buchholz (3, 8) were both very good. But the best week came from Rubby De La Rosa, who made two starts, and they were both excellent, as he allowed just two runs over 15 innings of work.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/10/2014
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Oakland4.9(1)3.46(2)0.654(1)76417245-4
Seattle3.88(14)3.25(1)0.581(2)68496255-6
LA Angels4.71(2)4.03(6)0.571(3)675068491
Baltimore4.29(6)3.88(4)0.546(4)645367503
Detroit4.59(3)4.21(7)0.54(5)625363521
Toronto4.52(4)4.28(9)0.525(6)635663560
Kansas City4.07(9)3.85(3)0.525(7)615563532
Cleveland4.42(5)4.35(11)0.508(8)60585959-1
Tampa Bay3.91(13)3.89(5)0.503(9)59585760-2
NY Yankees4(11)4.21(8)0.476(10)566161565
Minnesota4.22(8)4.52(12)0.468(11)54625264-2
Chicago Sox4.26(7)4.72(13)0.453(12)546556632
Boston3.79(15)4.28(10)0.445(13)526552650
Houston3.93(12)4.73(14)0.416(14)496949690
Texas4.07(10)5.06(15)0.402(15)47704671-1
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Oakland10062
LA Angels9468
Baltimore9369
Detroit8973
Kansas City8874
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Oakland10161
LA Angels9468
Baltimore9270
Seattle8874
Detroit8874
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Kansas City6.33(1)2.17(1)0.877(1)51601
Seattle5.5(4)2.17(1)0.846(2)51510
Baltimore6.29(2)3.57(9)0.738(3)52520
Texas5.67(3)3.33(6)0.725(4)4233-1
Tampa Bay3.17(10)2.5(3)0.606(5)4233-1
Oakland4(5)3.43(7)0.57(6)43521
NY Yankees3.14(11)2.71(4)0.567(7)43430
Boston2.83(12)2.83(5)0.5(8)33330
Toronto3.67(7)4(11)0.46(9)33330
Minnesota3.67(7)4.17(12)0.442(10)3324-1
Houston3.83(6)5(14)0.381(11)24240
Cleveland3.57(9)4.71(13)0.376(12)34340
Detroit2.57(13)3.43(7)0.371(13)3425-1
LA Angels2.57(13)3.57(9)0.354(14)25250
Chicago Sox2(15)6.29(15)0.11(15)16251

Labels: , ,

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link