Monday, June 23, 2014

Monday pythagorean report - 6/23/2014

Generally, 4-3 is a good week. When you can do that while scoring only 18 runs, you praise the pitching staff...
  • Not only did they score only 18 runs in 7 games this week, they did it with three of the games going 10 innings, and they did it while scoring 7 of those runs in one game. During the first six games, they scored a total of 11 runs.


  • The swept a three-game series with the Twins while scoring only five runs total.


  • You can score and allow the same number of runs in a series of games without any of htem being close. That's not what happened with Boston this week. Six of the games they played were decided by one run. The "blowout" was a 2-run loss, 4-2, in Oakland.


  • Through 76 games, the 2014 Red Sox are 10 games behind the 2013 Red Sox. This difference is entirely due to the drop-off in offense, which has been prodigious. They have allowed the same 308 runs through 76 games, but they've only scored 291 against last year's 386. That's a 25% drop-off in runs scored, a stunning drop. Some of us expected the offense to be comparable to last year's team's, but even those who thought there would be a step back didn't foresee this kind of a drop.


  • Last year, they were first in the AL in runs scored. This year, they are tied for 13th.


  • The biggest drop-off has come in their power numbers. The batting average is down, and their OBP decline pretty much results from that. But the .072 points of slugging has been the biggest difference.
    2013 (.269/.345/.443/.788, 398.29 runs created, 4.93 RC/25 outs)
    2014 (.242/.321/.369/.690, 302.02 runs created, 3.63 RC/25 outs)


  • The easy assumption is that they failed to adequately replace the players that left in the off-season. And it turns out that it's true - the replacements have underperformed the replaced. In the aggregate, the replacements have actually created more runs than the players they've replaced, but they've made far more outs in the process, so they've been significantly worse. And this is skewed, to some extent, by the fact that Xander Bogaerts did not play in the first 76 games of 2013, so he's part of the replacement group, which Jackie Bradley, Jr. did, so he is not part of the replacement group.
    Replaced (2013) (.293/.358/.439/.797, 105.73 runs created, 5.45 RC/25 outs)
    Replacements (2014) (.258/.319/.368/.688, 109.17 runs created, 3.60 RC/25 outs)
    The CF and Catcher replacements have been bad:
    2013 - Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia (.275/.342/.423/.765, 74.96 runs created, 4.98 RC/25 outs)
    2014 - Bradley, Sizemore, Pierzynski (.228/.291/.331/.621, 56.19 runs created, 2.75 RC/25 outs)


  • But it's not just the replacements. The players that were here both years have also been significantly worse.
    Both (2013) (.261/.341/.444/.785, 292.58 runs created, 4.77 RC/25 outs)
    Both (2014) (.234/.322/.369/.691, 192.85 runs created, 3.64 RC/25 outs)
    The biggest drops in runs created have come from Daniel Nava, who started slow and was shipped out
    2013 - Daniel Nava (.205/.295/.299/.595, 9.92 runs created, 2.56 RC/25 outs)
    2014 - Daniel Nava (.275/.375/.449/.824, 40.77 runs created, 5.57 RC/25 outs)
    and Stephen Drew, who hasn't played most of the year
    2013 - Stephen Drew (.224/.307/.381/.688, 24.63 runs created, 3.62 RC/25 outs)
    2014 - Stephen Drew (.158/.200/.211/.411, .85 runs created, .64 RC/25 outs)
    and Mike Carp, who played frequently and well in 2013, but neither in 2014
    2013 - Mike Carp (.324/.379/.686/1.065, 25.49 runs created, 8.73 RC/25 outs)
    2014 - Mike Carp (.214/.317/.286/.603, 5.12 runs created, 2.07 RC/25 outs).
    And, of course, they've gotten nothing from
    2013 - Shane Victorino (.292/.351/.392/.743, 25.34 runs created, 4.91 RC/25 outs)
    2014 - Shane Victorino (.242/.276/.352/.627, 9.25 runs created, 3.17 RC/25 outs).
    Mike Napoli's created fewer runs, but that's due to injury issues - he's hit better in 2014 than he did last year.
    2013 - Mike Napoli (.262/.344/.454/.797, 39.68 runs created, 4.98 RC/25 outs)
    2014 - Mike Napoli (.268/.383/.431/.814, 34.32 runs created, 5.33 RC/25 outs)
    David Ortiz has created essentially the same number of runs as last season, but he missed time in 2013 and has not been as good this year.
    2013 - David Ortiz (.306/.386/.602/.988, 44.00 runs created, 6.71 RC/25 outs)
    2014 - David Ortiz (.248/.349/.474/.823, 44.25 runs created, 5.27 RC/25 outs)
    And Dustin Pedroia's performance is concerning.
    2013 - Dustin Pedroia (.309/.393/.419/.812, 48.62 runs created, 5.63 RC/25 outs)
    2014 - Dustin Pedroia (.265/.336/.381/.717, 37.82 runs created, 4.01 RC/25 outs)


  • Not a good week for super-Koji, as he gave up runs of his own in two of his four appearances, and gave up a first pitch hit to drive in the losing run in another. Two solo HR in Sunday's ninth inning almost ruined the Red Sox chances of salvaging one game in Oakland. Just a bad week, or the end of the magic?


  • Speaking of magic ending, Burke Badenhop has been outstanding, entering Sunday's game with an 18-inning scoreless streak. He allowed three hits without retiring a batter, as he and Uehara combined to blow a five-run lead in the 8th and 9th.


  • The Boston Red Sox just celebrated the 15th anniversary (plus four days) of one of the most unlikely walk-off wins in history with a significantly less unlikely walk-off win.

    On June 14, 1999, the Twins took a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the ninth at Fenway, and, with one out, Darren Lewis (2 HR in 528 PA) and Jeff Frye (1 HR in 131 PA) hit back-to-back HR to win the game. This afternoon, June 18, 2014, the Twins took a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the 10th, and, with one out, David Ortiz and Mike Napoli hit back-to-back HR to win the game.

    Not the same, of course, but walk-off back-to-back HR don't happen every day, and against the same team, it's a notable occurrence...


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Sure, there were some individual moments, from Brock Holt (defense) and David Ortiz and Mike Napoli (late-inning HR) and Dustin Pedroia (base-running), but given the choice between awarding the Player of the Week to Dustin Pedroia (.276/.300/.448/.748, 3.55 runs created, 4.03 RC/25 outs) or David Ortiz (.240/.296/.480/.776, 3.28 runs created, 4.10 RC/25 outs) or just not giving it out, this is a not-giving-it-out week.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Jon Lester had two very good starts, allowing four runs (three earned) in 14 innings of work. But, for the second week in a row, one of the kids was better, as Rubby de la Rosa allowed only five hits and one run in 14 innings, striking out 10 and walking four.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/23/2014
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Oakland5.19(1)3.39(1)0.686(1)52244729-5
Seattle4.01(12)3.52(2)0.56(2)43334036-3
LA Angels4.86(2)4.28(6)0.558(3)413341330
Toronto4.74(3)4.41(8)0.533(4)413642351
Kansas City4.2(10)4.01(3)0.521(5)393639360
Baltimore4.29(9)4.11(5)0.519(6)383639351
Detroit4.62(4)4.52(10)0.51(7)373540323
Minnesota4.33(7)4.55(12)0.477(8)353936381
Boston3.88(13)4.11(4)0.474(9)36403541-1
Cleveland4.48(5)4.83(13)0.466(10)354137392
Chicago Sox4.44(6)4.83(13)0.462(11)354135410
NY Yankees4.07(11)4.48(9)0.456(12)344039355
Tampa Bay3.79(15)4.31(7)0.441(13)34433146-3
Texas4.3(8)4.95(15)0.436(14)334235402
Houston3.83(14)4.54(11)0.423(15)334433440
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Oakland10062
LA Angels9072
Detroit9072
Toronto8874
Seattle8577
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Oakland10656
LA Angels9072
Seattle8874
Toronto8775
Detroit8676
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Baltimore5(3)2.67(4)0.76(1)5142-1
Tampa Bay4.14(9)2.57(2)0.705(2)5243-1
Seattle3.43(12)2.14(1)0.703(3)52520
LA Angels5(3)3.17(6)0.698(4)42420
Kansas City4.57(7)3.71(7)0.594(5)4334-1
Minnesota3(13)2.71(5)0.546(6)43430
Oakland5.43(1)5(10)0.538(7)43521
Chicago Sox4.83(5)4.5(9)0.533(8)3324-1
Boston2.57(14)2.57(2)0.5(9)43430
Detroit5.14(2)5.29(12)0.487(10)34431
NY Yankees3.67(11)4.17(8)0.442(11)33421
Texas4.83(5)6.17(14)0.39(12)2415-1
Cleveland4(10)6(13)0.323(13)24240
Toronto4.33(8)6.67(15)0.313(14)2415-1
Houston2.5(15)5.17(11)0.209(15)15150

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