Monday, June 16, 2014

Monday pythagorean - 6/16/2014

The first rule of holes - when you find yourself in one, stop digging. 3-4, while not too much of a problem in the context of a good seaosn, doesn't qualify...
  • How bad was the offense this week? They scored 15 runs in winning Thursday and Friday night. The other five games, they scored five runs total. A spectacular performance from Workman resulted on winning one of those five, 1-0, but you cannot be consistently successful averaging one run per game.


  • They scored 10 runs on Friday, 10 runs in the other six games combined.


  • Is Jackie Bradley, Jr. ever going to be a Major League hitter? He looked like one (.267/.421/.400/.821, 3.10 runs created, 7.04 RC/25 outs) this week.


  • There have been many offensive problems this year. The struggles of the outfielders are legendary. But there have also been far too many weeks like this, when the two offensive stars, the guys making big money to carry the team, produce nothing. David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia this week, with the team getting shut out twice and scoring 2 in losing two 3-2 games, combined to hit (.157/.259/.275/.533, 2.60 runs created, 1.41 RC/25 outs). That's not going to get it done.


  • Twice this weekend, the Red Sox broke a 1-1 tie in the 6th and immediately turned around and gave up the tying run in the top of the next inning. Saturday's game was particularly frustrating, as defense could have saved the game but didn't. With runners at 1st and 3rd and no out, a ground ball to Pedroia could have led to a double-play and a tie game, or runners at 1st and 2nd with one out as the tying run was cut down at the plate. Instead, the throw beat the runner to the plate, the umpire made the out call, and then realized that Pierzynski had not caught it. So it was a tie game with runners at 1st and 2nd with no outs. (The tying run reached base on a ground ball to short that Herrerra handled but his throw bounced and Napoli couldn't handle it.) Neither defensive failure was egregious, but a good play in either case would have resulted in a preserved lead. After two outs, two Red Sox relievers issues back-to-back walks to score the eventual winning run.


  • It's only five starts, but Brandon Workman has clearly been one of the team's best five starters thus far. Better than Doubront, better than Buchholz, better than Peavy. He's a 25-year old with 74 minor league starts, over 400 minor league innings, and has pitched (successfully) in the Majors, including several post-season and World Series appearances. There's no obvious compelling reason for him not to remain in the Major League rotation at this point.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - On a per-plate appearances basis, both Stephen Drew (.500/.500/.500/1.000, 1.09 runs created, 13.64 RC/25 outs) and Daniel Nava (.375/.500/.500/1.000, 3.43 runs created, 7.14 RC/25 outs) were more productive than Brock Holt (.345/.387/.414/.801, 4.16 runs created, 4.95 RC/25 outs), but Holt did it in more games and significantly more plate appearances.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Lester had one very good start, Brandon Workman had two, allowing just 6 hits and 2 runs in 12 2/3 innings of work, while striking out 11 and walking 3.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/16/2014
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Oakland5.16(1)3.22(1)0.703(1)49204227-7
Toronto4.77(3)4.21(4)0.557(2)403141301
Seattle4.07(12)3.66(2)0.549(3)38313534-3
LA Angels4.85(2)4.38(7)0.546(4)373137310
Kansas City4.16(10)4.04(3)0.513(5)353336321
Detroit4.56(4)4.44(8)0.513(6)333236293
Baltimore4.22(9)4.24(5)0.498(7)343435331
Cleveland4.52(5)4.72(12)0.48(8)343635351
Minnesota4.47(6)4.74(13)0.473(9)323532350
Boston4.01(13)4.26(6)0.472(10)33363138-2
NY Yankees4.1(11)4.51(11)0.457(11)313735334
Chicago Sox4.41(7)4.86(15)0.456(12)323833371
Houston3.94(14)4.49(10)0.441(13)314032391
Texas4.25(8)4.84(14)0.441(14)303934354
Tampa Bay3.75(15)4.49(9)0.419(15)29412743-2
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Oakland9963
Toronto9468
Detroit9072
LA Angels8874
Kansas City8676
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Oakland10755
Toronto9270
LA Angels8874
Seattle8676
Detroit8676
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
LA Angels4(6)4.33(11)0.463(11)33330
Houston3.71(9)3.57(8)0.518(7)43430
Oakland4(6)3.33(6)0.583(4)33330
Toronto2.86(12)3.43(7)0.417(13)34340
Cleveland4.86(2)5.57(15)0.438(12)34340
Seattle2.57(15)2.71(3)0.475(10)3425-1
Baltimore2.71(14)1.43(1)0.764(2)5243-1
Texas4(6)5.5(13)0.358(14)24331
Tampa Bay3.17(11)3(4)0.525(6)33330
Boston2.86(12)3(4)0.478(9)34340
Kansas City7(1)2.4(2)0.876(1)41501
Detroit4.5(4)4.67(12)0.483(8)33330
Minnesota4.83(3)3.83(10)0.604(3)4233-1
Chicago Sox3.33(10)5.5(13)0.286(15)24240
NY Yankees4.33(5)3.67(9)0.576(5)33421

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