Monday pythagorean, 6/9/2014

Another week, another streak. This one on the downhill side. The Red Sox are currently engaged in the greatest roller coaster of a season I can remember seeing...

• Another streak built on close losses, as the Red Sox got swept in Cleveland on a one-run loss, a two-run loss, and a 12th inning loss.



• It's nice to see Mike Napoli back in the lineup.



• They are one 9th-inning 3-run David Ortiz home run away from a third consecutive "perfect" week (a zero in either the win or loss category). Their last 22 games have all been part of streaks of 5 games or longer.



• I'm starting to wonder how much, exactly, John Farrell's players covered for weak tactical moves last year. Lord knows that they haven't done it this year, and there have been a lot of moves that have been questionable. To put it charitably.



• One of the things that seemed like a poor idea was the burying of Daniel Nava in favor of Jonny Gomes during the post-season. Yes, they won the World Series, which eliminates an enormous amount of second-guessing. But it didn't make sense. (And Gomes hit .188/.188/.250/.438 during the ALCS and .118/.286/.294/.580 during the World Series. [Nava didn't hit any better, though he was much better in the ALCS, and didn't get the at-bats that Gomes did in the WS.])



• That continued this spring, as Nava struggled mightily out of the gate and was quickly shipped out, despite what he did last year. And Jonny Gomes has gotten 81 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, and has hit .169/.247/.296/.543, which is part of the reason that they've gotten nothing from the outfield. Nava has not been good this year, and was part of the reason that they got off to such a poor start, but after what he did last year, he shouldn't have been discarded so quickly. Well, this week, Nava finally got a few more at-bats and good things happened (.385/.467/.385/.851, 2.73 runs created, 8.53 RC/25 outs).



• Brock Holt (.345/.345/.414/.759, 4.05 runs created, 5.33 RC/25 outs) had another productive week. He's now hitting .339/.376/.478/.854 for the season in 115 at-bats, while having played well at both corner infield spots and now, with Mike Napoli's return, in left. I know that just last week I was talking about how you need to be thankful for what you've gotten and get him out of the lineup, but now I'm looking again at a 26-year old with a .372 career minor league OBP and thinking that maybe he's actually going to have a couple of productive years as a Major Leaguer, in which case you need to keep playing him every day until he turns back into a pumpkin. Left field against right-handers, third base (with Bogaerts at SS) against lefties, and ride the streak.



• Yes, last week's position and this week's position are mutually exclusive, and yes, I can defend either of them. Ask me again in ten years, and I'll tell you which one was right. I won't criticize the Sox, much anyway, for going either way on the Brock Holt call.



• Twice in the last three weeks, Jon Lester, the Ace, took the mound with a chance to stop a Red Sox losing streak that had reached four games or longer. He failed to get out of the first inning unscored upon either time, and gave up 12 runs in 10 1/3 inning total. It's not going to affect his payday, come the end of the season, but he's been a major contributor to both of the Sox' long losing streaks.



• Red Sox Player of the Week - Xander Bogaerts (.269/.345/.577/.922, 5.34 runs created, 7.03 RC/25 outs) continues to demonstrate that he's a star in the making.



• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - John Lackey pitched well enough to win twice with decent run support (or lose twice, with bad support, which is what would have happened had Ortiz hit into a double play in the 9th last night), finishing with a 3-2 loss and a 5-3 win, but allowing six runs (five earned) over 16 innings (2.81 ERA).

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/9/2014

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Oakland	5.19	(1)	3.16	(1)	0.713	(1)	45	18	39	24	-6
Toronto	4.91	(2)	4.23	(4)	0.567	(2)	36	28	38	26	2
Seattle	4.18	(10)	3.71	(2)	0.554	(3)	34	28	33	29	-1
LA Angels	4.77	(3)	4.24	(5)	0.554	(4)	34	28	34	28	0
Detroit	4.49	(4)	4.34	(7)	0.516	(5)	30	29	33	26	3
Cleveland	4.41	(6)	4.56	(12)	0.485	(6)	31	32	32	31	1
Baltimore	4.33	(8)	4.49	(9)	0.483	(7)	29	32	31	30	2
Kansas City	3.87	(14)	4.11	(3)	0.473	(8)	30	33	31	32	1
Boston	4.08	(11)	4.34	(6)	0.472	(9)	29	33	28	34	-1
Chicago Sox	4.44	(5)	4.72	(14)	0.472	(10)	30	34	31	33	1
Minnesota	4.36	(7)	4.75	(15)	0.461	(11)	28	33	29	32	1
Texas	4.21	(9)	4.7	(13)	0.45	(12)	28	35	31	32	3
NY Yankees	4.02	(12)	4.52	(11)	0.447	(13)	28	34	31	31	3
Houston	3.91	(13)	4.52	(10)	0.434	(14)	28	36	28	36	0
Tampa Bay	3.69	(15)	4.48	(8)	0.411	(15)	26	38	24	40	-2

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Oakland	100	62
Toronto	96	66
Detroit	91	71
LA Angels	89	73
Seattle	86	76

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Oakland	110	52
Toronto	94	68
LA Angels	89	73
Seattle	88	74
Detroit	86	76

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
LA Angels	4.14	(10)	3.71	(6)	0.55	(7)	4	3	4	2	0
Houston	5.67	(1)	4.67	(9)	0.588	(5)	4	2	4	2	0
Oakland	5.17	(2)	3	(2)	0.73	(2)	4	2	4	2	0
Toronto	3.83	(11)	3.17	(3)	0.587	(6)	4	2	4	2	0
Cleveland	5	(5)	3.33	(5)	0.677	(3)	4	2	5	1	1
Seattle	5.17	(2)	2.5	(1)	0.791	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Baltimore	5	(5)	5.67	(13)	0.443	(8)	3	3	3	3	0
Texas	4.5	(7)	5.83	(14)	0.383	(10)	2	4	2	4	0
Tampa Bay	2.38	(15)	4	(7)	0.278	(14)	2	6	1	6	-1
Boston	3.67	(12)	5.33	(11)	0.335	(13)	2	4	1	5	-1
Kansas City	4.43	(8)	3.29	(4)	0.633	(4)	4	3	5	2	1
Detroit	4.17	(9)	5.5	(12)	0.376	(12)	2	4	2	4	0
Minnesota	5.14	(4)	5.86	(15)	0.441	(9)	3	4	3	4	0
Chicago Sox	3.17	(13)	4.17	(8)	0.377	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
NY Yankees	2.71	(14)	5	(10)	0.246	(15)	2	5	2	5	0