Monday, June 09, 2014

Monday pythagorean, 6/9/2014

Another week, another streak. This one on the downhill side. The Red Sox are currently engaged in the greatest roller coaster of a season I can remember seeing...
  • Another streak built on close losses, as the Red Sox got swept in Cleveland on a one-run loss, a two-run loss, and a 12th inning loss.


  • It's nice to see Mike Napoli back in the lineup.


  • They are one 9th-inning 3-run David Ortiz home run away from a third consecutive "perfect" week (a zero in either the win or loss category). Their last 22 games have all been part of streaks of 5 games or longer.


  • I'm starting to wonder how much, exactly, John Farrell's players covered for weak tactical moves last year. Lord knows that they haven't done it this year, and there have been a lot of moves that have been questionable. To put it charitably.


  • One of the things that seemed like a poor idea was the burying of Daniel Nava in favor of Jonny Gomes during the post-season. Yes, they won the World Series, which eliminates an enormous amount of second-guessing. But it didn't make sense. (And Gomes hit .188/.188/.250/.438 during the ALCS and .118/.286/.294/.580 during the World Series. [Nava didn't hit any better, though he was much better in the ALCS, and didn't get the at-bats that Gomes did in the WS.])


  • That continued this spring, as Nava struggled mightily out of the gate and was quickly shipped out, despite what he did last year. And Jonny Gomes has gotten 81 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, and has hit .169/.247/.296/.543, which is part of the reason that they've gotten nothing from the outfield. Nava has not been good this year, and was part of the reason that they got off to such a poor start, but after what he did last year, he shouldn't have been discarded so quickly. Well, this week, Nava finally got a few more at-bats and good things happened (.385/.467/.385/.851, 2.73 runs created, 8.53 RC/25 outs).


  • Brock Holt (.345/.345/.414/.759, 4.05 runs created, 5.33 RC/25 outs) had another productive week. He's now hitting .339/.376/.478/.854 for the season in 115 at-bats, while having played well at both corner infield spots and now, with Mike Napoli's return, in left. I know that just last week I was talking about how you need to be thankful for what you've gotten and get him out of the lineup, but now I'm looking again at a 26-year old with a .372 career minor league OBP and thinking that maybe he's actually going to have a couple of productive years as a Major Leaguer, in which case you need to keep playing him every day until he turns back into a pumpkin. Left field against right-handers, third base (with Bogaerts at SS) against lefties, and ride the streak.


  • Yes, last week's position and this week's position are mutually exclusive, and yes, I can defend either of them. Ask me again in ten years, and I'll tell you which one was right. I won't criticize the Sox, much anyway, for going either way on the Brock Holt call.


  • Twice in the last three weeks, Jon Lester, the Ace, took the mound with a chance to stop a Red Sox losing streak that had reached four games or longer. He failed to get out of the first inning unscored upon either time, and gave up 12 runs in 10 1/3 inning total. It's not going to affect his payday, come the end of the season, but he's been a major contributor to both of the Sox' long losing streaks.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Xander Bogaerts (.269/.345/.577/.922, 5.34 runs created, 7.03 RC/25 outs) continues to demonstrate that he's a star in the making.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - John Lackey pitched well enough to win twice with decent run support (or lose twice, with bad support, which is what would have happened had Ortiz hit into a double play in the 9th last night), finishing with a 3-2 loss and a 5-3 win, but allowing six runs (five earned) over 16 innings (2.81 ERA).
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/9/2014
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Oakland5.19(1)3.16(1)0.713(1)45183924-6
Toronto4.91(2)4.23(4)0.567(2)362838262
Seattle4.18(10)3.71(2)0.554(3)34283329-1
LA Angels4.77(3)4.24(5)0.554(4)342834280
Detroit4.49(4)4.34(7)0.516(5)302933263
Cleveland4.41(6)4.56(12)0.485(6)313232311
Baltimore4.33(8)4.49(9)0.483(7)293231302
Kansas City3.87(14)4.11(3)0.473(8)303331321
Boston4.08(11)4.34(6)0.472(9)29332834-1
Chicago Sox4.44(5)4.72(14)0.472(10)303431331
Minnesota4.36(7)4.75(15)0.461(11)283329321
Texas4.21(9)4.7(13)0.45(12)283531323
NY Yankees4.02(12)4.52(11)0.447(13)283431313
Houston3.91(13)4.52(10)0.434(14)283628360
Tampa Bay3.69(15)4.48(8)0.411(15)26382440-2
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Oakland10062
Toronto9666
Detroit9171
LA Angels8973
Seattle8676
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Oakland11052
Toronto9468
LA Angels8973
Seattle8874
Detroit8676
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
LA Angels4.14(10)3.71(6)0.55(7)43420
Houston5.67(1)4.67(9)0.588(5)42420
Oakland5.17(2)3(2)0.73(2)42420
Toronto3.83(11)3.17(3)0.587(6)42420
Cleveland5(5)3.33(5)0.677(3)42511
Seattle5.17(2)2.5(1)0.791(1)51510
Baltimore5(5)5.67(13)0.443(8)33330
Texas4.5(7)5.83(14)0.383(10)24240
Tampa Bay2.38(15)4(7)0.278(14)2616-1
Boston3.67(12)5.33(11)0.335(13)2415-1
Kansas City4.43(8)3.29(4)0.633(4)43521
Detroit4.17(9)5.5(12)0.376(12)24240
Minnesota5.14(4)5.86(15)0.441(9)34340
Chicago Sox3.17(13)4.17(8)0.377(11)24240
NY Yankees2.71(14)5(10)0.246(15)25250

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