Monday, June 30, 2014

Monday pythagorean - 6/30/2014

Another week of just treading water, 3-3...
  • Of course, treading water is much, much better than it looked like the week was going to turn out on Saturday morning. Through the first four games of the week, they were 1-3 and had been outscored 30-10. They had won a game by one, and lost three games by nine, six and six.


  • As bad as that beginning to the week was, things actually feel ok this morning. (That's the recency bias talking, of course.) They won a game with pitching on Saturday, they won a game with offense on Sunday. They beat the Yankees twice in a row in New York. They are back within six games of first place in the division.


  • Saturday's game marked the halfway point of the season. They got there at seven games under .500. They got there in the middle of the pack (7th of 15) in runs allowed. They got there, shockingly, in dead last in runs scored.


  • Through 81 games, they had allowed 3 more runs than the 2013 Red Sox. They had scored 114 fewer runs than the 2013 Red Sox.


  • The starters, for the most part, were shaky, leading to the league worst six runs allowed per game. Lackey, the only starter to make two starts, made two bad starts, allowing 12 runs (11 earned) in just 8 2/3 innings of work. Jake Peavey allowed seven runs in five innings. Those two were responsible for half of the Sox starts this week.


  • Six relievers combined to throw 9+ shutout innings, with only Breslow and the recently released Chris Capuano allowing any runs.


  • As we saw on Sunday night, David Ortiz can still hit a baseball a long way.


  • One of the great games of the year took place in New York on Saturday night, with Mike Napoli's ninth-inning HR leading to Boston's 2-1 win in a great pitching duel between Tanaka and Lester. If the Red Sox ever put a streak together and get back into the race, on the fringes of which they've been for the whole season thus far, that becomes one of the memorable reasons why.


  • Two weeks ago, Boston was 8 1/2 games out in the East, 3 1/2 behind the Orioles and 4 behind the Yankees. Over the last two weeks, they've gone 7-6. And this morning, they're 6 games out in the East, 4 1/2 behind the Orioles and 4 behind the Yankees. The Red Sox have done little to keep themselves in the division race, to the extent that they are, but they've gotten a lot of help from their competition.


  • Mookie Betts make his Major League debut and became yet another Boston player with a hit in his first Major League game this year, joing Cecchini and Hassan. On the night, he was 1-3 with a walk, which looks like a nice start. Unfortunately, he also hit into a double-play and ran into another out on the bases (caught stealing). Still, quite a night considering that he was an A ball infielder last year and a Major League outfielder now. He's had a very rapid ascent - 54 games in AA, 23 in AAA, and here he is.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - The biggest hit of the week came from the Player of the Week, but it wasn't the only hit that Mike Napoli (.412/.524/.882/1.406, 6.26 runs created, 14.22 RC/25 outs) had. Brock Holt (.292/.370/.542/.912, 4.79 runs created, 7.05 RC/25 outs) and Dustin Pedroia (.409/.462/.409/.871, 4.24 runs created, 7.07 RC/25 outs) each had good weeks and warrant mention.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - No-brainer here, as Jon Lester allowed just one unearned run in 8 innings on Saturday night, a performance that was necessary as the Sox only got two against Tanaka.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/30/2014
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Oakland5.16(1)3.49(2)0.671(1)54275130-3
Seattle4.04(12)3.43(1)0.574(2)47354438-3
LA Angels4.83(2)4.19(5)0.564(3)453545350
Toronto4.67(3)4.31(8)0.536(4)453945390
Detroit4.63(4)4.38(9)0.525(5)413744343
Kansas City4.14(10)3.99(3)0.517(6)423942390
Baltimore4.23(7)4.19(4)0.505(7)414042391
Cleveland4.41(5)4.67(13)0.474(8)384339421
Minnesota4.19(8)4.55(12)0.462(9)374337430
Chicago Sox4.31(6)4.69(14)0.462(10)384539441
NY Yankees4.04(11)4.44(11)0.457(11)374341394
Boston3.79(13)4.2(6)0.454(12)374538441
Tampa Bay3.79(14)4.23(7)0.45(13)38463549-3
Houston3.76(15)4.39(10)0.43(14)364736470
Texas4.17(9)4.88(15)0.429(15)354637442
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Oakland10260
LA Angels9171
Detroit9171
Seattle8775
Toronto8775
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Oakland10557
LA Angels9171
Seattle9072
Detroit8874
Toronto8775
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Seattle5(4)2.83(1)0.739(1)42420
Detroit5.5(3)3.5(4)0.696(2)42420
LA Angels6(1)4.5(8)0.629(3)42420
Cleveland4.2(9)3.2(3)0.622(4)3223-1
Toronto4.57(6)3.86(5)0.577(5)4334-1
Houston3.5(12)3.17(2)0.546(6)33330
Tampa Bay4.86(5)4.57(9)0.528(7)43430
Oakland5.8(2)5.8(14)0.5(8)32411
NY Yankees4.33(7)4.67(10)0.466(9)3324-1
Chicago Sox3.57(11)3.86(5)0.465(10)34431
Kansas City4(10)4.33(7)0.463(11)33330
Baltimore4.29(8)5.57(13)0.382(12)34340
Texas3.33(13)4.83(11)0.336(13)24240
Minnesota3.17(15)5.33(12)0.278(14)2415-1
Boston3.33(13)6(15)0.254(15)24331

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