Monday, July 28, 2014

Monday pythagorean, 7/28/2014

It's over. OK? Yeah, it's a lousy division this year, yeah, stranger things have happened, but none of that matters. It's over. Period. A legitimate team in the situation that this team was in on Tuesday morning does not go on to lose its next five. Over. Finished. Stick a fork in 'em, they're done...
  • Remember the old story about the guy with his feet in the freezer and his head in the oven, and how, on average, he was pretty comfortable? The Red Sox offense looks like it was so-so this week, at four runs per game. But half of their offensive output, 14 of the 28 runs they scored this week, came in the first game of the week - they scored only 14 more in their next six games. They were shut out twice, and were one David Ortiz swing away from being shut out three times in four games.


  • For the week, they hit .258/.308/.414/.722, 30.03 runs created, 3.99 RC/25 outs. For the six games starting Tuesday, they hit .226/.286/.337/.622, 17.77 runs created, 2.76 RC/25 outs.


  • Jake Peavy finishes his Boston career with a 5-10 record and a 4.48 ERA over 30 starts. I would argue that those numbers underrate his actual performance, as he was plagued by virtually non-existent run support during his entire tenure. In 17 of his 30 starts, he gave the team a quality start, pitching at least six innings and allowing no more than three runs, and yet he still only finished with five wins.


  • I am still a supporter of the trade that brought him in. As for the trade that sent him out, I've got no opinion. I believe that they have options that are better, or at least as good, for the starts that need to be made, so I've got no problem with moving him. I don't know anything whatsoever about the guys that are coming back. Essentially, I think that this move, at this time, doesn't hurt the team, and could conceivably help it down the line.


  • I know that Ortiz has hit more home runs than Yastrzemski, and that kicked off the flurry of comparisons between the two. I know that Ortiz has higher raw numbers than Yaz in many categories. But I also know that the league contexts in which the two have played are significantly different. David Ortiz never had a season even close to as good as Yastrzemski's 1967. He never had a season as good as Yastrzemski's 1968. And that's just offense. When you add in defense and base-running, there's just no comparison. Yastrzemski was a better hitter than David Ortiz and he was a much more valuable all-around player than David Ortiz. And anyone who says otherwise has either not looked at it closely, or is giving Ortiz too much credit for his teammates and management, who were better, on the whole, than Yastrzemski's.


  • Public contract negotiations result in lots of nonsense. Apparently, now Jon Lester has said that he'd be willing to sign with Boston, even if they trade him now. Obviously, if they trade Lester now, he's gone, and he won't be back. That would be a mistake. They need to sign him, or overpay someone else by more to replace him. He's never going to win a Cy Young, but he's a good enough pitcher to be the best pitcher on a World Series winning team, and they need someone of his caliber. Yeah, he's probably going to get overpaid. That's the way the market works. The team's underpay early and overpay late. Maybe they think that they can put together a good staff next year with just the pitcher's already under their control. I think that they're wrong. They need Lester, or someone like him. If they're going to overpay a veteran, it would be foolish not to just go ahead and overpay Lester.


  • I do not expect them to trade him. I do expect them to attempt to re-sign him after the season. I think the odds of his being in Boston next year are roughly 50-50.


  • I do think that we'll see the roster change some more this week. I would rather not trade Miller or Uehara, but I think that one or both could go. Mike Carp could go. Maybe Lackey. Maybe Drew has some value. But this is not a team with a lot of veteran's playing out the last years of their contracts. They're already well into the generational transition, and have already dumped the veteran most-likely-to-be-dumped.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - He's no Yaz, but David Ortiz (.286/.310/.893/1.203, 7.57 runs created, 9.47 RC/25 outs) had a very good week.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - He was 1-1, as the team got shut out in his second start, but John Lackey went seven strong innings twice, allowing 4 runs (3 earned) over 14 innings.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/28/2014
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Oakland5.04(1)3.4(2)0.672(1)70346539-5
LA Angels4.88(2)4.01(5)0.589(2)614363412
Seattle3.84(14)3.35(1)0.562(3)59465451-5
Detroit4.67(3)4.25(9)0.543(4)554757452
Baltimore4.24(7)3.96(3)0.531(5)554958463
Toronto4.55(4)4.33(10)0.522(6)555156501
Cleveland4.48(5)4.42(11)0.506(7)53525253-1
Kansas City4(9)4.01(5)0.499(8)525253511
Tampa Bay3.94(12)3.98(4)0.496(9)52535154-1
Chicago Sox4.28(6)4.44(12)0.483(10)515551550
NY Yankees3.97(11)4.24(8)0.47(11)495554505
Boston3.89(13)4.22(7)0.462(12)49564857-1
Minnesota4.12(8)4.52(13)0.457(13)48564757-1
Houston3.81(15)4.83(14)0.393(14)416442631
Texas3.99(10)5.12(15)0.388(15)416441640
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Oakland10161
LA Angels9864
Detroit9171
Baltimore9072
Toronto8676
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Oakland10458
LA Angels9765
Detroit9072
Baltimore8973
Seattle8676
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Tampa Bay4.2(4)1.8(1)0.825(1)41410
Oakland6.5(1)3.17(6)0.789(2)5142-1
Baltimore3.14(10)2(2)0.696(3)52520
Chicago Sox4.14(5)3(5)0.644(4)5243-1
Cleveland4.57(3)3.86(11)0.577(5)4325-2
Kansas City4(6)3.57(8)0.552(6)43521
Detroit3.86(8)3.57(8)0.535(7)4334-1
Toronto5.29(2)5(13)0.525(8)43521
LA Angels2.71(12)2.57(3)0.525(9)43430
NY Yankees3.43(9)3.29(7)0.519(10)43430
Boston4(6)4.71(12)0.425(11)3425-1
Seattle2.14(15)2.86(4)0.371(12)3425-1
Texas2.29(14)3.57(8)0.306(13)25250
Minnesota2.86(11)5.14(14)0.254(14)25341
Houston2.67(13)6.17(15)0.177(15)15150

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