Monday, July 14, 2014

Monday pythagorean - 7/14/2014

So, they've reached the All Star break, and look to be attempting to maintain the tease as long as possible...
  • The youth movement went into high gear this week, with the designation of AJ Pierzynski for assignment and the call-up of Christian Vazquez. The Red Sox took the field on Wednesday night with five rookies in the starting lineup (and in order in the batting order, from 6-1). And what didn't get noted, because he's not actually still a rookie, despite his limited time in the Majors, is that Rubby de la Rosa was on the mound that night. We knew, coming into 2014, that Bogaerts and Bradley would play. To see Holt, Betts and Vazquez also on the field, and de la Rosa on the mound, was not something I would have predicted before the season started.


  • I don't know whether Christian Vazquez is really ready to be in the Majors yet or not, but his first few games have been prodigious (.455/.417/.727/1.144, 2.71 runs created, 8.46 RC/25 outs).


  • I don't know whether Christian Vazquez is really ready to be in the Majors yet or not. I also do not care. The Red Sox, organizationally, approach at-bats as something of value, outs as something not to be squandered. They go to the plate looking for something to work on, and will take a walk if that's what they're given. AJ Pierzynski approached the plate as if he were late for his bus, and didn't really have time for this silly "try to hit the round ball with the round bat" ritual.


  • I've seen less productive players in a Red Sox uniform. I do not immediately remember one whose mere presence in a Red Sox uniform so grated on my nerves as Pierzynski.


  • I thought that Pierzynski was a downgrade from Saltalamacchia. I did not think he'd be a big downgrade. I was wrong.


  • Over the last month, since 6/12, Jackie Bradley is hitting .286/.348/.357/.705. That's obviously not great, but given his defense, if he could maintain that kind of offensive production, he's a legitimate Major League player. And you have to love the gap between his batting average and his OBP, because that means that he's a disciplined hitter, and he sees pitches and takes walks.


  • Thomas Wolfe - "You Can't Go Home Again." Brock Holt - ".667/.688/1.067/1.754 in Houston, so, yes, you can."


  • Ok, Holt is not exactly from Houston, but close enough that the whole weekend had a return-of-the-prodigal-son feel to it. His mother's reaction after his lead-off home-run on Sunday was special.


  • And who knew that Brock Holt could hit a baseball that far?


  • Too bad there aren't more games with the Astros on the schedule...


  • Some guys have all the luck. (Wasn't that a Rod Stewart song?) Which is true for both good luck and bad luck. The Red Sox scored 8 runs for John Lackey and 11 runs for Clay Buchholz in Houston. In between, they scored two for Jake Peavy, as he pitched very well in accumulating yet another loss to go with his one (1) win on the season.


  • Ok, pedantry alert: The Major League baseball season is 162 games long. To refer to the "first half" and "second half," as Dave O'Brien did ad nauseum yesterday is convenient and understandable. It's also innumerate and exceptionally irritating. The first half of the season ended after game 81, two weeks ago in New York.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Brock Holt (.394/.412/.667/1.078, 7.75 runs created, 9.23 RC/25 outs) continues to amaze.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Jon Lester was excellent, again, allowing only 1 run in seven innings of work, and he was, again, the starter with the lowest ERA for the week. But. The performance of the week was Clay Buchholz' three-hit, no walk shutout against Houston on Sunday, and that brought his ERA for the week in two starts down to 2.25, and doing that over 16 innings was sufficient for the award.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/14/2014
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit4.91(2)3.38(1)0.664(1)63325936-4
Oakland5.09(1)4.14(5)0.593(2)563857371
Toronto3.98(12)3.38(1)0.574(3)55405144-4
Minnesota4.8(3)4.25(7)0.555(4)514053382
Kansas City4.31(6)4.03(3)0.53(5)504452422
Baltimore4.49(4)4.29(9)0.521(6)50464947-1
Tampa Bay4.07(10)4.03(3)0.505(7)474748461
Seattle4.44(5)4.52(13)0.491(8)464847471
Boston4.28(8)4.45(11)0.482(9)45494450-1
Texas4.28(7)4.52(12)0.475(10)46504551-1
Cleveland3.89(13)4.15(6)0.47(11)46514453-2
Houston3.99(11)4.38(10)0.457(12)435147474
Chicago Sox3.86(14)4.26(8)0.455(13)435243520
LA Angels3.83(15)4.75(14)0.403(14)395740561
NY Yankees4.12(9)5.25(15)0.39(15)375838571
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit10161
Oakland9864
Minnesota9468
Kansas City9072
Toronto8775
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit10458
Oakland9765
Minnesota9270
Toronto8973
Kansas City8874
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit7.17(1)2.83(3)0.845(1)51510
Minnesota5.43(4)2.71(2)0.78(2)52520
LA Angels6.57(2)4(9)0.713(3)52611
Oakland3.86(11)2.43(1)0.7(4)5243-1
Boston4.71(5)3.57(7)0.624(5)43430
Chicago Sox4.43(7)3.43(6)0.615(6)4334-1
Cleveland4.71(5)4(9)0.575(7)43430
Baltimore3.33(13)2.83(3)0.574(8)33421
Tampa Bay4.33(8)4.17(11)0.518(9)33330
Houston5.67(3)5.83(14)0.487(10)33421
NY Yankees3.14(14)3.86(8)0.407(11)34340
Toronto4(10)5.17(13)0.385(12)24240
Kansas City3.57(12)4.71(12)0.376(13)34340
Seattle2.14(15)3.14(5)0.332(14)25341
Texas4.14(9)8.71(15)0.204(15)1607-1

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