Monday, July 07, 2014

Monday pythagorean - 7/7/2014

Last week, I was a little bit disappointed that they were treading water. Obviously, they responded by deciding not to tread water any more...
  • The weakness of the AL East has them only 9 game out, on the fringes of contention. But this has been a bad team. Particularly offensively.


  • They lost with good pitching. They allowed 2 runs three times this week, and managed to win only one of the three games, on a walk-off Saturday afternoon.


  • They lost with decent offense. They scored at least six runs twice, and lost both.


  • Over their last 30 games, the Red Sox have scored far and away the fewest runs in the AL. They've scored 98 runs in 30 games, 3.267 runs/game. In all of baseball, only the San Diego Padres have scored fewer.


  • Yes, Xander Bogaerts is in a slump that is reaching epic proportions. No, anti-Drew talk radio know-nothings, it did not begin with the Drew signing. Here's what Bogaerts did in his first five games as a 3rd baseman this year: Xander Bogaerts (.318/.375/.682/1.057, 5.52 runs created, 9.20 RC/25 outs). One of his best five-game stretches of the season.


  • If this continues for another week, we will need to consider whether they promoted Mookie Betts (.188/.188/.375/.563) to soon, and whether keeping him in the Majors is likely to do permanent psychological damage.


  • Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.455/.500/.636/1.136), on the other hand, may have just had the best week, albeit in only three games, of his Major League career.


  • The Red Sox pitching has been pretty good, particularly the bullpen. But. The offensive ineptitude has meant that they've been pitching without a safety net, with no margin for error. And so we have Andrew Miller, during the 10-game losing streak, repeatedly being tagged with walk-off losses. And then this weekend, back-to-back Burke Badenhop performances that cost them the game. And Badenhop has been outstanding. But he failed on Saturday night, costing them that game, and he failed again on Sunday, costing them that one.


  • There's been some criticism of Jake Peavy, still winless since April. And there's some recognition of a lack of run support, but people still look at the win-loss as if it's meaningful. So let's consider a couple of things. Jon Lester has 11 Quality Starts this season, starts in which he's gone at least six innings and allowed no more than three runs. He is 9-0 with 2 No Decisions in those 11 starts. John Lackey is 8-1 in his 12. Jake Peavy is 1-2 in his nine quality starts. Peavy has four starts in which he's gone at least six and allowed only one, and another with six innings and two runs allowed, one earned. He's got only one win.


  • Yes, all QS are not created equally, but six innings and three runs should lead to a lot of wins on a good team. This one isn't.


  • Ok, pedantry alert: On the post-game show after Saturday afternoon's Red Sox win, we were told repeatedly (at least twice) that Jon Lester "did not factor in the decision." What a dreadful use of the language. Lester was the single biggest factor in Boston's win. Yes, he was not "awarded a win," he was "awarded a no-decision," which is not at all the same thing as not factoring in the decision.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Ironically, the one Red Sox offensive player who had a great week, David Ortiz (.412/.500/.647/1.147), was 0-5, as he missed the one win.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Again, Jon Lester was outstanding in Boston's one win (which he didn't get, despite going 8 innings and striking out 7 while allowing only 5 hits and no walks and no earned runs).
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/7/2014
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit4.99(1)3.45(2)0.662(1)58305533-3
Toronto4.13(9)3.4(1)0.588(2)52364840-4
Oakland4.97(2)4.15(5)0.581(3)513651360
Baltimore4.52(4)4.23(7)0.53(4)48424743-1
Minnesota4.64(3)4.35(9)0.529(5)454048373
Kansas City4.38(6)4.11(4)0.528(6)464248402
Tampa Bay4.11(10)3.98(3)0.516(7)454245420
Seattle4.41(5)4.56(11)0.485(8)424543441
Cleveland3.86(13)4.15(6)0.466(9)42494150-1
Texas4.27(7)4.61(13)0.465(10)414842471
Houston4.06(12)4.43(10)0.46(11)404744434
Boston4.18(8)4.59(12)0.458(12)40473948-1
Chicago Sox3.8(14)4.32(8)0.441(13)394939490
NY Yankees4.11(11)4.98(15)0.414(14)365238502
LA Angels3.71(15)4.68(14)0.396(15)365436540
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit10161
Oakland9567
Minnesota9171
Toronto8874
Kansas City8874
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit10458
Oakland9567
Toronto9171
Minnesota8973
Kansas City8775
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Baltimore6(2)3.29(5)0.751(1)52611
Seattle5.33(3)3(1)0.741(2)42420
LA Angels6.57(1)3.71(8)0.74(3)52611
Tampa Bay4.71(4)3.29(5)0.659(4)52611
Cleveland4.5(6)3.17(3)0.655(5)42420
Detroit4.71(4)4(10)0.575(6)43430
Chicago Sox3.67(11)3.5(7)0.521(7)33330
Oakland3(14)3(1)0.5(8)43430
Kansas City3.83(9)3.83(9)0.5(8)33330
NY Yankees4.29(7)4.29(11)0.5(8)4334-1
Minnesota4.14(8)5(12)0.415(11)3425-1
Toronto2.5(15)3.17(3)0.394(12)24240
Boston3.83(9)6(13)0.306(13)2415-1
Texas3.43(12)6.14(14)0.256(14)2516-1
Houston3.14(13)8.14(15)0.149(15)1607-1

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