"They played a little bit better..."

According to Ravens QB, "they [the Patriots] played a little bit better." But from where I was sitting, that's not the case. I'm still not sure how the Patriots, with Brady playing poorly (in his own words, he "s*cked pretty bad"), with three turnovers to one takeaway, with no TD passes, settling for three field goals, with the defense unable to stop the Ravens on 3rd down in the second and third quarters, managed to come out of that game yesterday with a win.

But they did. And in two weeks, they'll play in the Super Bowl. Again. Against the Giants. Again.

Odds and ends from yesterday's game:

• I think that there's a world of difference between a "drop" and what happened on the Lee Evans play at the end of the game, and people putting Evans on a par with Billy Cundiff - or worse - are underestimating the contribution of Sterling Moore. Yes, Evans did get both hands on the ball and yes, if he held on the Ravens would have won the game. But he never had an opportunity to put the ball away, as the ball was hit by the defender as he was trying to establish control. A little more credit to Moore and less blame to Evans is appropriate than what I've heard and read.
• There is no excuse, however, for Cundiff.
• Did Terrell Suggs play?
• I did not realize, until they talked about it during the game yesterday, that Bernard Pollard was the Houston defender who tackled Wes Welker on the play in 2009 on which Welker tore up his knee. Pollard was, of course, the safety for the Kansas City Chiefs whose low tackle tore up Tom Brady's knee. And then, in the 3rd quarter of yesterday's game, he took down Rob Gronkowski, landing on and twisting his ankle in such a fashion that Gronkowski had to leave the game. Thankfully, he returned. But I don't want to see the Patriots playing against Pollard ever again...
• That was a poor performance from the Patriots quarterback yesterday. The biggest surprise from the game may be that they're going to Indianapolis despite Brady, rather than because of him.
• It wasn't just the picks. One of the most blatant mistakes came early, as Brady missed Gronkowski for a TD in the first quarter. Instead, they ended up settling for 3, and it affected everything that followed.
• He's lucky that walked off the field after his diving sneak TD, when Ray Lewis put his helmet into Brady's spine while he was upside down. (And well after the TD had been scored...)
• The best player on the field yesterday may have been Vince Wilfork. The Ravens couldn't block him.

The Giants go on to Indianapolis on the strength of not one but two blown punt returns by the 49ers - a muff in the fourth quarter that led to a NY touchdown, and a fumble in OT that gave NY the ball in field goal position (which they'd shown no likelihood of reaching on their own.)

And the number of replays of the David Tyree helmet catch that we're all going to see over the next two weeks is appalling to contemplate...

OK, not EVERYTHING went right for the Patriots this weekend...

...because they lost Andre Carter for the season.

But other than that, they had something positive happen during every game slot. When play started on Sunday afternoon, there were four AFC teams at 10-3, and the Patriots were behind the others in playoff-seeding tie-breakers. To get a bye, assuming they won out, they needed either Houston OR both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to lose again. To get the number one seed, they needed Houston AND Baltimore and Pittsburgh to lose again. 36 hours later, they had sole possession of the best record in the AFC, just two home games against sub-.500 teams away from the number one seed, three home games away from hosting the AFC Championship game, and four home games away from the Super Bowl.

Early Sunday game:

Carolina 28, Houston 13
(Bonus: Kansas City 19, Green Bay 14, preserving New England's record for the longest regular season winning streak, and their status as the only undefeated team in the 16-game era.)

Late Sunday game:

New England 41, Denver 23

Sunday night game:

San Diego 34, Baltimore 14

Monday night game:

San Francisco 20, Pittsburgh 3

I actually have very little confidence after the home playoff losses of the last two years, and the defensive performances (which have been very offensive) this year. But after this weekend, they are very likely to enter the post-season as the number one seed in the AFC. Again.

I don't want to talk about it.

OK? I know that people are going to come in here this morning looking for commentary, but I just don't want to talk about it. I'm disgusted with what I witnessed yesterday, and I don't want to talk about it. It has rendered some activities that I enjoy absolutely toxic for the near future, and I don't want to talk about it.

I don't want to talk about Belichick's ridiculous decision to cut off his nose to spite his face by sitting Welker on the first drive. I don't want to talk about Brady's interceptionless streak, the regular season version of which will still be news when they take the field next fall despite his throwing the ball to Jet linebacker David Harris on the first drive yesterday, which completely altered the game. I don't want to talk about Alge Crumpler dropping a touchdown that completely altered the game. I don't want to talk about the defense's experiment to see if they could make Mark Sanchez look like a pro quarterback by playing "five Mississippi" pass rush. I don't want to hear, ever again, about Tom Brady's record home winning streak, as they've now lost two straight home playoff games while that meaningless streak continues. I don't want to talk about the raft which we used to play on out at the island, lovingly nicknamed "the leaky sieve," or the celebrated impersonation of said sieve performed by the offensive line. I don't want to talk about big play Deion Branch dropping a pass that would have converted a critical first down, forcing a punt. I don't want to talk about the defense, which spent the year not allowing big plays, giving up a 58 yard catch and run as soon as the offense got back into the game.

It was a revolting spectacle, and has rendered the remaining three games of the NFL season completely unwatchable, as well as the sports media in both Boston and New York, which I generally enjoy, and several football websites which I peruse. And, for all of the "big time" cachet that Belichick and Brady built up over the years, they've now lost three straight playoff games, two at home, two as enormous favorites over freakin' New York teams!


But I don't want to talk about it. Man, spring training can NOT get here soon enough...



P.S. - Yes, I had some thoughts on the other games, as well. I don't want to talk about it.

NFL Divisional weekend preview

So, gathered in one spot, are my predictions for Divisional weekend in the NFL:

AFC Game 1 (Saturday afternoon): Pittsburgh over Baltimore
NFC Game 1 (Saturday evening):   Green Bay over Atlanta
NFC Game 1 (Sunday afternoon):   Chicago over Seattle
AFC Game 1 (Sunday afternoon):   New England over NY Jets

NFL Playoff previews: AFC Divisional game 2

Sunday, January 16 - AFC Divisional Game 2

New York Jets (11-5) at New England Patriots (14-2)

By the numbers:

NY Jets @ New England

Team	W	L	PF	PA	Dif	Pyth
NY Jets	11	5	367	304	63	.610
New England	14	2	518	313	205	.767

OK, let's get this right out in the open to start with - this game scares the hell out of me. Not because I think the Patriots can't win, but because I can't see how they can lose. I've seen set-ups like this before, and there's virtually no upside to this game, emotionally, for a Patriots fan, while the potential downside is devastating. As wonderful and exhilarating as it is to win as a big underdog, losing as a big favorite is a bigger downer. So the possibilities that I see, as a Patriots fan, are devastation or relief.

Looking at the numbers here, we can see that Patriots had a much better regular season than the Jets did. It's pretty good to outscore your opposition by 63 points - it's historic to outscore them by 205. (There have been two teams with a 200+ point differential since the 2001 Rams - the 2007 Patriots [again, this game scares the hell out of me] and the 2010 Patriots.) There's a big gap in pythagorean percentage, obviously, and while the Jets allowed fewer points, there's only a marginal difference which is dwarfed by the points scored difference.

But there's more, that's even more compelling. Football teams change over the course of the year, and seldom more than this Patriots team did. When the Jets handed the Patriots one of their two losses this year, Logan Mankins was holding out and Tom Brady was forcing the ball to Randy Moss, while Danny Woodhead and Deion Branch hadn't been added or integrated yet. Gronkowski and Hernandez and McCourty had all played one NFL game. They changed the team after week four with the Moss and Branch trades, and took about a month to adjust, climaxing with a loss in Cleveland in week nine that left them at 6-2. Since then...

Last 8 games

Team	W	L	PF	PA	Dif	Pyth
NY Jets	5	3	185	174	11	0.536
New England	8	0	299	125	174	0.888

Of course, one could argue that those numbers are skewed, a little bit, because New England hammered New York in week 13, 45-3. So, just for kicks, let's pull that one out.

Last 8 games without 45-3 game

Team	W	L	PF	PA	Dif	Pyth
NY Jets	5	2	182	129	53	0.693
New England	7	0	254	122	132	0.850

The Patriots haven't simply been a better team than the Jets over the past two months, they've been a vastly superior team. For all of the talk of the Patriots' defensive weakness and the Jets' defensive strength, the Jets allowed only 9 fewer points for the season, and 49 MORE over the last half of the season. Even without the 45-3 drubbing, the Jets allowed more points per game over the second half of the season than the Patriots did.

The fact is, there's not a single thing that you can point to as a legitimate reason to believe that the Jets win this game. It inevitably comes down to "any given Sunday" and "the Patriots barely beat Green Bay [a better team than the Jets]" and "they've got a puncher's chance." All of which is true. And none of which is a good reason to expect the Jets to win.

But the last time I saw a playoff game be this much of a mismatch, the Seahawks beat the Saints. The last time before that, the Giants beat the Patriots. This game scares me, because despite the fact that there's no reason for it to happen, it could happen, and the potential for pain from the Jets talking, the NY media and the national media gloating about Belichick/Brady failing, is enormous.

Reason to pick the Jets:

I can't find one.

Reason to pick the Patriots:

They are a much better team, with a better coach, a better QB, a better defense, and playing at home.

New York wins if

They can hold the ball for 35+ minutes while scoring 28+ points.

New England wins if:

They play a decent game.

My pick:

New England

NFL Playoff previews: NFC Divisional game 2

Sunday, January 16 - NFC Divisional Game 2
Seattle Seahawks (7-9) at Chicago Bears (11-5)

By the numbers:

Seattle @ Chicago

Team	W	L	PF	PA	Dif	Pyth
Seattle	7	9	310	407	-97	.344
Chicago	11	5	334	286	48	.591

So the worst of the four bye teams, the Chicago Bears, hosts the worst of the four Wild Card teams. And if I thought that Seattle was going to get blown out at home by a Wild Card team, surely I think that they'll get blown out on the road against the NFC's second-best team, right?

It's not quite that simple. New Orleans is a good offensive team, and the Seahawks have been dreadful defensively. Chicago is not an offensive powerhouse, and any time Jay Cutler's playing, there are going to be opportunities for the opposing defense to take the ball away.

And while the Seahawks had lost in New Orleans by two touchdowns, they actually won in Chicago. Yes, it was by three, back in October, but they've done it once, and that leads to the suspicion that they could do it again. Do I think that they will?

No. I think that the Bears are a bit of a mirage, but they're a better team than the Seahawks. (To be fair to Chicago, the one half of football that I've really seen from them this year, they lost 33-0 on their way to a 36-7 drubbing by the Patriots.) Would I be shocked if the Seahawks won, the way I was last week? No, but I don't expect them to.

Reason to pick the Seahawks:

They've already won in Chicago this season, and they're coming off a huge win in their best performance of the year.

Reason to pick the Bears:

They're a better team, playing at home, with a week's rest.

Seattle wins if:

Hasselbeck plays the way he did last week and the defense comes up with three turnovers.

Chicago wins if:

Jay Cutler doesn't have a meltdown game and the defense plays sound football.

My Pick:

Chicago

NFL Playoff previews: NFC Divisional game 1

Saturday, January 15 - NFC Divisional Game 1
Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)

By the numbers:

Green Bay @ Atlanta

Team	W	L	PF	PA	Dif	Pyth
Green Bay	10	6	388	240	148	.757
Atlanta	13	3	414	288	126	.703

These two teams played one of the big games of the regular season, when the Falcons beat Green Bay in Atlanta in week 12. The Packers never led in the game, and Atlanta never had a two-score lead, with the team's alternating scores and the Falcons breaking a 17-17 tie with a 47 yard field goal with 7 seconds remaining.

But the Packers actually played better. There was one turnover in the game, an Aaron Rodgers fumble on the Falcons one yard line which was recovered in the end zone by the Falcons. If Green Bay scores there, they go up by a touchdown and the game probably plays out differently.

The Falcons did score more than the Packers did in 2010, but Green Bay's defensive advantage is larger than the Falcons' offensive advantage, as the Packers finished the season 2nd in the NFL in points allowed (behind Pittsburgh). They also finished 2nd in the NFL in point differential and Pythagorean winning percentage (behind New England).

Reason to pick the Packers:

Points allowed, point differential and pythagorean all suggest that the Packers are the better team.

Reason to pick the Falcons:

The Falcons have been excellent at home, they're coming off a bye, and Mike Smith hasn't had the kinds of late game tactical difficulties that Mike McCarthy has.

Green Bay wins if:

They can avoid the stupid mistakes, turnovers, tactical errors, clock management problems, etc., that has had them underperform over the past couple of years.

Atlanta wins if:

They can jump out in front early and control the pace of the game.

My Pick:

Green Bay

NFL Playoff previews: AFC Divisional game 1

Saturday, January 15 - AFC Divisional Game 1
Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

By the numbers:

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Team	W	L	PF	PA	Dif	Pyth
Baltimore	12	4	357	270	87	.660
Pittsburgh	12	4	375	232	143	.757

The AFC divisional weekend features two divisional matchups. So this is the third meeting of the year for the Ravens and Steelers. Conventional wisdom is that these are two physical teams, built on defense and running games. There's some truth to that, but it's also probably overstated.

They split the first two, with Baltimore winning in Pittsburgh and the Steelers returning the favor in week 13 in Baltimore. Over the past four years, the Steelers lead the series 5-3, splitting in '07, '09 and '10, while the Steelers swept in 2008. In addition, the Steelers beat the Ravens in the playoffs in 2008. All of which makes it sound like there's been a Steeler advantage, but not a big one.

Which is not quite true. Here's the interesting thing - the last time that the Ravens beat the Steelers with Roethlisberger starting was Christmas Eve in 2006. They've beaten Pittsburgh three times in the last four years, but in none of those games did Pittsburgh's starting QB play. Over the last four years, Ben Roethlisberger is 6-0 against the Ravens as a starting QB.

Does that mean that Pittsburgh wins this week? No. But that, combined with the facts that Pittsburgh was a better team both offensively and defensively, and they're playing at home, means that the Steelers are probably a better bet than one would think, given that they split this year and each finished 12-4.

Reason to pick the Ravens:

They've already won in Pittsburgh this season, the losses have all been close, and they're certain to beat Roethlisberger at some point.

Reason to pick the Steelers:

They've scored more points and allowed fewer, and the Ravens haven't beaten their QB in four years.

Baltimore wins if:

They can protect a lead against a good team, something they've had trouble doing this year.

Pittsburgh wins if:

They can play well early, allowing them to play from ahead instead of behind.

My Pick:

Pittsburgh

Thoughts on Wild Card weekend

With some important other things going on this weekend, I didn't see all of any of the games, with Baltimore-KC being both the least interesting game of the weekend and the only that I really saw in more-or-less real time. But there are a couple of odds and ends:

• Obviously, the Seahawks pulled off a huge upset. I had seen the halftime score on this one, and assumed that Seattle had jumped out to a lead and managed to keep it. I was shocked, when reviewing it on the DVR later, to discover that the Saints had actually jumped out to the lead. And scored a late touchdown. In between, Seattle beat them 41-10. Absolutely shocking. They scored 25% more points than in any of their regular season games. Even if you could envision the Saints' offense struggling without its running backs, how did they give up 41 to the moribund Seahawk offense?
  
  Part of that was a highlight run that we'll see for the rest of our lives, as Marshawn Lynch broke tackles from almost every New Orleans player on the field in the course of a 67 yard touchdown run that put the game away. For you young football players, this is why you keep your legs moving, this is why you don't arm tackle.
• I thought that the Colts mis-managed the end of the game. Badly. They were in field goal range and, instead of forcing the Jets to use one of their timeouts, they threw an incompletion that stopped the clock and preserved the Jets' first timeout, then later used on of their own preserving the Jets' second. And obviously, the kickoff return just killed them. It's a very different situation if Sanchez takes the field with one timeout needing 45 yards instead of needing only about 20 with two.
• I said last week that the Chiefs were a fraud team. This game would seem to have provided some validation for that position.
• The Packers-Eagles game should have been compelling. It finished close. But I never got into it, and have no comment other than it appeared to me that both teams were a) talented and b) sloppy.
• Three of the games went about the way that I envisioned, the obvious exception being in Seattle. I did expect the Colts to win, and when they got to the 36 with less than two minutes less, I was confident that they had. But they didn't, so I was 0-2 on Saturday and 2-0 on Sunday.

Let me just say one thing, as the week dawns, about the upcoming New England-New York re-rematch: I'm not predicting, I'm not talking trash, and anyone can win anywhere on any given Sunday, as we saw this weekend in Seattle. All that said, it's hard for me to imagine a scenario in which New England plays poorly enough on Sunday to lose to the Jets.

Postseason contenders and pretenders

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com

But those final numbers don’t tell the whole story. The Patriots have been absolutely scorching hot over the second half of the year, and especially in the past six weeks.

New England’s Defensive Passer Rating over the past six weeks is a tremendous 56.2. Tom Brady’s passer rating over that period? Try 130.4 on for size.

That adds up to a truly unbelievable Passer Rating Differential of +74.2 down the stretch! That’s the kind of territory inhabited only by the 1940s Bears in the shock & awe era of the early T-formation. (Cap tip to reader Lyford Beverage for sending us the 411 about the PRD down the stretch).

NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview

So, gathered in to one spot, are my predictions and previews for Wild Card weekend in the NFL playoffs:

NFC Game 1 (Saturday afternoon): New Orleans over Seattle
AFC Game 1 (Saturday evening):    Indianapolis over NY Jets
AFC Game 1 (Sunday afternoon):    Baltimore over Kansas City
NFC Game 1 (Sunday afternoon):    Green Bay over Philadelphia

NFL Playoff previews: NFC Wild Card game 2

Sunday, January 9 - NFC Wild Card Game 2

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

By the numbers:

Baltimore @ Kansas City

Team	W	L	PF	PA	Dif	Pyth
Green Bay	10	6	388	240	148	.757
Philadelphia	10	6	439	377	62	.589

Unlike the other three games, the road team in this game does not have a better record than the home team. Like the other three games, all of the evidence suggests that the road team is, in fact, the better team. The Eagles advantage in points scored is dwarfed by the Packers advantage in points allowed, leading to a signficantly higher Pythagorean winning percentage. The same holds true over the last half of the season, as both are going in at 5-3 with a slight Eagle advantage in points scored and a big Packer advantage in points allowed and pythagorean winning percentage. On top of all that, they've already played this season, in Philadelphia, and the Packers won.

Just glancing at the teams and records, you'd expect this to be the pick'em game of the weekend. On the contrary, virtually everyone that I've heard or seen has picked the Packers.

Reason to pick the Packers:

As noted, they're a better team. They're a much better defensive team.

Reason to pick the Eagles:

No team in football has more "explosion" potential, with Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson. We all saw them score 28 points in the last 8 minutes to beat the Giants three weeks ago.

Green Bay wins if

The Packer defense (and special teams) can prevent the kind of explosive big plays that beat the Giants.

Philadelphia wins if:

The Packer defense (and special teams) can't prevent the kind of explosive big plays that beat the Giants.

My pick:

Green Bay

Bonus question/answer:

Q:Which of the two head coaches, known for making egregious clock/game management blunders, makes the most egregious clock/game management blunder?
A: Mike McCarthy. They win anyway.