Thoughts on Wild Card weekend

With some important other things going on this weekend, I didn't see all of any of the games, with Baltimore-KC being both the least interesting game of the weekend and the only that I really saw in more-or-less real time. But there are a couple of odds and ends:

• Obviously, the Seahawks pulled off a huge upset. I had seen the halftime score on this one, and assumed that Seattle had jumped out to a lead and managed to keep it. I was shocked, when reviewing it on the DVR later, to discover that the Saints had actually jumped out to the lead. And scored a late touchdown. In between, Seattle beat them 41-10. Absolutely shocking. They scored 25% more points than in any of their regular season games. Even if you could envision the Saints' offense struggling without its running backs, how did they give up 41 to the moribund Seahawk offense?
  
  Part of that was a highlight run that we'll see for the rest of our lives, as Marshawn Lynch broke tackles from almost every New Orleans player on the field in the course of a 67 yard touchdown run that put the game away. For you young football players, this is why you keep your legs moving, this is why you don't arm tackle.
• I thought that the Colts mis-managed the end of the game. Badly. They were in field goal range and, instead of forcing the Jets to use one of their timeouts, they threw an incompletion that stopped the clock and preserved the Jets' first timeout, then later used on of their own preserving the Jets' second. And obviously, the kickoff return just killed them. It's a very different situation if Sanchez takes the field with one timeout needing 45 yards instead of needing only about 20 with two.
• I said last week that the Chiefs were a fraud team. This game would seem to have provided some validation for that position.
• The Packers-Eagles game should have been compelling. It finished close. But I never got into it, and have no comment other than it appeared to me that both teams were a) talented and b) sloppy.
• Three of the games went about the way that I envisioned, the obvious exception being in Seattle. I did expect the Colts to win, and when they got to the 36 with less than two minutes less, I was confident that they had. But they didn't, so I was 0-2 on Saturday and 2-0 on Sunday.

Let me just say one thing, as the week dawns, about the upcoming New England-New York re-rematch: I'm not predicting, I'm not talking trash, and anyone can win anywhere on any given Sunday, as we saw this weekend in Seattle. All that said, it's hard for me to imagine a scenario in which New England plays poorly enough on Sunday to lose to the Jets.

NFL Playoff previews: AFC Wild Card game 2

Sunday, January 9 - AFC Wild Card Game 2
Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

By the numbers:

Baltimore @ Kansas City

Team	W	L	PF	PA	Dif	Pyth
Baltimore	12	4	357	270	87	.660
Kansas City	10	6	366	326	40	.568

The superficial numbers would indicate that the Ravens are a better team than the Chiefs. But when you drill down in, just a little bit, you discover that they're actually a much better team. Everyone recognizes that the Seahawks are a fraud playoff team - that 7-9 record is a dead giveaway - but they also happen to be one of the only two playoff teams that the Chiefs faced during the regular season, and the only one that they beat. Their victory over the 9-7 Chargers way back in week 1 is the Chiefs only win against a team that finished over .500. They had one of the ultimate creampuff schedules, and the 10-6 record is a schedule-based illusion.

Baltimore is an overrated but clearly better defensive team. They're a better offensive team, too. They're tougher and more battle-tested. This is not a mismatch on the scale of New Orleans-Seattle, but it's not a pick 'em, either.

Reason to pick the Ravens:

They've demonstrated that they're a better team by putting together a better record against a much tougher schedule.

Reason to pick the Chiefs:

They're at home, with an efficient QB and a good running game.

Baltimore wins if:

They can force the Chiefs offense into passing situations on most drives.

Kansas City wins if:

Cassel is mistake-free and they're able to run the ball and score touchdowns.

My Pick:

Baltimore