Monday, September 01, 2014

Monday pythagorean - 9/1/2014

As we've noted many times, winning two of three, four of six - that's good baseball. There's been far too little of that kind of performance for it to matter now, but for those of us still watching, it was a good week...
  • I don't know when Boston last won back-to-back extra inning road games (apparently, it was in May of 1986 in Oakland), but they did it on Monday and Tuesday in Toronto.


  • I also don't remember the last time I saw a team score three runs in extra innings and lose by four, but Boston scored seven in the 11th on Tuesday night, so when Toronto scored three in the bottom of the 11th, they were still four short.


  • Mike Napoli hit one of the longest home runs I've ever seen in that seven-run 11th inning. Into the 5th deck, it was nearly long enough to be two home runs.


  • Rusney Castillo made his US Professional debut, going 1-2 with a caught stealing down in a Gulf Coast League game. I expect that we'll see him in Boston for a week or so before the season ends, but he hasn't played in 13 months, so I don't expect to see much. Obviously, we've got 72 million convincing reasons to believe that the organization is high on him.


  • Xander Bogaerts finished his concussion DL stint and it looked on Sunday as if the reset might have done him good...


  • So the SS returned from his concussion DL stint on Saturday, and the 2nd baseman left the game with a head injury that same night. There's no particular reason that I'm aware of to suspect that Forsythe intentionally threw his elbow at Pedroia's head, but it sure looked bad to me. His left hand was already on the base, and there was no obvious reason for his right arm to come up - it looked like he intentionally threw his elbow at Pedroia's head.


  • One of the results of the poor season (and also one of the causes) is the number of at-bats which have gone to rookies. There have been 90+ plate appearances for four of them. The one that we did not expect to see in Boston this year has actually performed the best.
    Mookie Betts (.259/.344/.424/.767, 13.10 runs created, 4.96 RC/25 outs)
    Xander Bogaerts (.224/.293/.335/.628, 41.85 runs created, 2.91 RC/25 outs)
    Jackie Bradley, Jr. (.216/.288/.290/.578, 28.60 runs created, 2.51 RC/25 outs)
    Christian Vazquez (.218/.282/.264/.546, 8.30 runs created, 2.21 RC/25 outs)


  • This is scary. Here are Xander Bogaerts' first 221 AB and last 221 AB of the season:
    Xander Bogaerts (.299/.387/.452/.840, 38.59 runs created, 6.03 RC/25 outs)
    Xander Bogaerts (.149/.193/.217/.410, 3.83 runs created, .48 RC/25 outs)
    Did I say scary? I mean horrifying...


  • No, that does not coincide with switching him from SS to 3B. It's close, but the first week that he played 3rd was the best week of his season.


  • They weren't actually traded for each other, but Joe Kelly is clearly filling the Jake Peavy role on this team, veteran pitcher pitching fairly well and not getting any wins because the team doesn't score when he pitches. He's now made five starts, four of them excellent, in a Red Sox uniform without a win.


  • Will the real Clay Buchholz please stand up? If this one's going to hang around for a while, that's a good thing. If we get the one that we had earlier in the year back, it's not...


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - No one did this week what Ortiz did last week, but Dustin Pedroia (.263/.333/.579/.912, 3.88 runs created, 6.93 RC/25 outs) had a pretty good week before getting knocked out Saturday night, and Mookie Betts (.273/.360/.591/.951, 4.87 runs created, 7.61 RC/25 outs) is the Player of the Week as he continues to demonstrate more power than you'd expect to go along with his obvious speed and good plate discipline.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - As easy and clear-cut a decision as there's been all week, as Clay Buchholz threw 8+ scoreless innings in two of Boston's four wins on the week. He took the mound in the 9th inning with a 3-0 lead twice. On Monday, he left after 8 1/3 with the 3-0 lead intact, but left three base runners and Uehara allowed them all to score. On Sunday, he completed the shutout. Just dominant...
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/1/2014
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Oakland4.69(1)3.58(2)0.621(1)84527858-6
LA Angels4.69(1)3.82(5)0.592(2)815583532
Seattle3.98(11)3.27(1)0.589(3)80557362-7
Baltimore4.35(6)3.77(3)0.565(4)765979563
Detroit4.65(3)4.41(10)0.524(5)716574623
Cleveland4.3(7)4.12(7)0.519(6)706470640
Kansas City4.09(9)3.93(6)0.519(7)706574614
Tampa Bay3.9(14)3.79(4)0.513(8)70676671-4
Toronto4.4(4)4.41(10)0.498(9)686869671
NY Yankees3.96(12)4.16(8)0.477(10)647170656
Minnesota4.37(5)4.73(13)0.464(11)63735977-4
Chicago Sox4.2(8)4.77(14)0.443(12)617662751
Boston3.85(15)4.38(9)0.441(13)607660760
Houston3.96(13)4.64(12)0.428(14)597959790
Texas3.99(10)4.96(15)0.402(15)55815383-2
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
LA Angels9963
Baltimore9567
Oakland9369
Kansas City8973
Seattle8874
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
LA Angels9864
Oakland9468
Baltimore9468
Seattle8973
Detroit8874
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
LA Angels4.71(2)2(1)0.828(1)61610
Baltimore6.14(1)3(3)0.788(2)61610
Cleveland4.4(6)2.8(2)0.696(3)32411
NY Yankees4.14(7)3.14(4)0.624(4)4334-1
Texas4.43(5)3.43(5)0.615(5)4334-1
Detroit4.57(4)4.14(7)0.545(6)43430
Boston4.67(3)4.33(9)0.534(7)33421
Toronto4(8)4.33(9)0.463(8)33330
Chicago Sox4(8)4.71(13)0.425(9)34340
Houston3.57(11)4.57(11)0.389(10)34431
Tampa Bay3(12)4.29(8)0.342(11)25250
Oakland2.71(15)4(6)0.33(12)25250
Minnesota4(8)6.17(15)0.312(13)2415-1
Seattle3(12)4.67(12)0.308(14)24240
Kansas City2.83(14)5(14)0.261(15)24240

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