Monday, September 20, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 9/20/2010

For one brief moment, there were delusions of Boston still being in it. Then Lackey took the hill...

  • When the game against Toronto started on Friday night, the Red Sox, despite all that has happened, still "had their destiny in their own hands." Entirely. They were six behind the Yankees, with six games remaining head-to-head. It wasn't a realistic hope, but it was a hope. That didn't last long.
  • Microcosm of a season: Ryan Kalish, in Boston early despite not being quite ready, because of injuries to starters, singles on a nine-pitch at-bat with one out in the bottom of the ninth and the Red Sox trailing by one. He then gets picked off. Three pitches later, Victor Martinez hits a ball off the wall which is misplayed by the center and left fielders and bounces all the way to right center. Victor, running like Big Papi with Mo Vaughn on his shoulders, reaches third. Adrian Beltre grounds out to short. Beckett loses again, as they give up another unearned run. The winning run scored from second. On a bunt. This was the epitome of the 2010 Boston Red Sox.
  • One word description of the 2010 season: frustration.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Again, it's just about the only starter remaining, Adrian Beltre, who hit .421/.500/.789/1.289 for the week.
  • Red Sox Un-Lackey Pitcher of the Week - Not John Lackey. No, this one goes to Jon Lester, again. Lester, who started twice this week, allowed only one run in 15 innings of work.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/20/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.32(1)4.1(4)0.617(1)92579059-2
Tampa Bay5.04(3)4.05(3)0.598(2)895989590
Minnesota4.87(5)3.96(2)0.593(3)886189601
Texas4.89(4)4.24(5)0.565(4)84648365-1
Boston5.07(2)4.56(9)0.548(5)826783661
Chicago4.7(6)4.41(7)0.529(6)797079700
Oakland4.03(11)3.86(1)0.52(7)77717474-3
Toronto4.62(8)4.58(10)0.504(8)757475740
Detroit4.63(7)4.6(11)0.503(9)757475740
Los Angeles4.28(9)4.44(8)0.484(10)727773761
Cleveland3.95(12)4.7(12)0.422(11)63866287-1
Kansas City4.16(10)5.3(14)0.39(12)589061873
Baltimore3.81(13)4.99(13)0.379(13)569359903
Seattle3.17(14)4.26(6)0.368(14)559457922

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9864
Tampa Bay9765
Minnesota9765
Texas9171
Boston9072

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9864
Tampa Bay9765
Minnesota9765
Texas9171
Boston9072

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas6(3)3.2(2)0.76(1)4132-1
Boston6.17(2)3.83(5)0.705(2)42420
Minnesota5.5(4)3.67(3)0.677(3)42420
Los Angeles4.17(9)2.83(1)0.669(4)4233-1
New York4.83(6)3.67(3)0.624(5)4233-1
Baltimore4.67(7)4.17(7)0.552(6)33421
Cleveland4.67(7)4.33(9)0.534(7)33421
Kansas City5.33(5)5(11)0.529(8)33330
Detroit7(1)6.8(13)0.513(9)32320
Tampa Bay3.67(11)4(6)0.46(10)33330
Oakland3.33(13)4.17(7)0.399(11)24331
Toronto3.67(11)6(12)0.289(12)24240
Seattle2.17(14)4.5(10)0.208(13)15241
Chicago3.83(10)8.33(14)0.194(14)1506-1

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