Monday, September 13, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 9/13/2010

4-2, 3-3, 2-4, 3-3 - the beat goes on as the season winds down...


  • As an old football coach used to say, "you are what your record says you are." This is what the Red Sox are right now - a .500 team without enough offense.
  • Clay Buchholz wasn't really a Cy Young candidate, because he's so short on innings pitched compared to some other top starters, including Felix Hernandez, who has been better at basically everything you want a pitcher to do. But he was in the conversation. That conversation ended in an 11-batter span on Friday night.
  • All feats are colored by context. In a different context, there might be praise and accolades for the Boston bullpen which threw seven scoreless, 3-hit innings on Friday night. As they were down 5-0 when they started, and the offense never came close to plating a run, it was just another blah mop-up job.
  • In a different context, we might look at taking 2-of-3 from the Rays as a pivotal series win. As it is, not so much...
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Adrian Beltre, who hit .381/.500/.762/1.262 on the week. Honorable mention to Josh Reddick, who hit .500/.500/.700/1.200 and created more runs per out, albeit in half the at-bats. (Runs Created takes note of the fact that 4 of Beltre's 5 walks were intentional.)
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - In the absence of any great starts or dominant relief appearances, this goes to Scott Atchison, who threw 5 2/3 innings of scoreless relief in 3 outings, allowing 1 hit and striking out 4.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/13/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.34(1)4.12(4)0.616(1)88558756-1
Tampa Bay5.1(2)4.06(3)0.603(2)865686560
Minnesota4.84(5)3.97(2)0.589(3)845985581
Texas4.85(4)4.27(7)0.558(4)806380630
Chicago4.73(6)4.24(5)0.55(5)796479640
Boston5.02(3)4.59(11)0.541(6)776679642
Oakland4.06(11)3.85(1)0.524(7)74687171-3
Toronto4.66(7)4.52(10)0.514(8)737073700
Detroit4.55(8)4.52(9)0.503(9)727272720
Los Angeles4.29(9)4.5(8)0.477(10)687570732
Cleveland3.92(12)4.71(12)0.417(11)60835885-2
Kansas City4.11(10)5.32(14)0.384(12)558758843
Seattle3.21(14)4.25(6)0.374(13)548955881
Baltimore3.77(13)5.02(13)0.372(14)539055882

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9963
Tampa Bay9864
Minnesota9666
Texas9171
Chicago8973

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9963
Tampa Bay9864
Minnesota9666
Texas9171
Chicago8973

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Minnesota4.33(8)2.33(1)0.756(1)51510
Oakland4.5(6)3.33(5)0.634(3)42420
Baltimore4.17(9)3.33(5)0.601(4)42420
Texas5.14(3)4.29(7)0.583(5)43521
Tampa Bay8.33(1)7(14)0.579(6)33330
Cleveland2.67(14)2.33(1)0.561(7)33330
Los Angeles3.5(11)3.17(3)0.546(8)33421
Boston6(2)6(11)0.5(9)33330
Kansas City4.5(6)6.17(12)0.36(10)2415-1
Toronto4.57(5)6.43(13)0.349(11)25341
New York3.33(12)4.83(8)0.336(12)2415-1
Chicago4(10)5.86(10)0.332(13)25341
Seattle3.17(13)4.83(8)0.316(14)2415-1

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