Rove: Democrats Can't Filibuster ObamaCare Repeal - WSJ.com

Interesting read in the Wall Street Journal from Karl Rove this morning - Democrats Can't Filibuster ObamaCare Repeal

Director of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush, Mr. Hennessey now teaches at Stanford Business School and is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. Last week on his website, KeithHennessey.com, he made the case that congressional Republicans could use the reconciliation process to kill ObamaCare with 51 votes in the Senate and a majority in the House of Representatives.

The Budget Act of 1974 established the reconciliation process. The House and Senate Budget Committees can direct other committees to make changes in mandatory spending (like ObamaCare's Medicaid expansion and insurance subsidies) and the tax code (such as ObamaCare's levies on insurance policies, hospitals and drug companies) to make spending and revenue conform with the goals set by the annual budget resolution.

For example, under reconciliation the Senate Budget Committee could instruct the Senate Finance Committee to reduce mandatory spending on insurance subsidies and Medicaid expansion. These two items make up more than 90% of spending in ObamaCare. All the changes from all the committees are then bundled into one measure and voted upon. Because reconciliation is protected by the rules of the budget process, it doesn't take 60 votes to bring it up and it requires only a simple majority to pass.

I thought that passing the bill the way the Democrats did, under reconciliation, was an abuse of the process. I'd be inclined to feel the same way about attempts to repeal it that way. On the other hand, there would certainly be a poetic justice to that which is not unattractive...

Mitch McConnell's promise kept

Well, I recommended this, so obviously, I approve...

Earlier today, McConnell announced in a press avail: "We pledged to the American people that we would seek to repeal this 2,700-page bill that seeks to restructure all of American health care and put the decisions in Washington. I'm pleased to announce that all 47 of my members will be voting to repeal Obamacare." Thirteen Democrats won't join them, and maybe none will. But the process of pressuring vulnerable Democrats to go on the record in support of an unpopular, exorbitantly expensive and quite possibly unconstitutional statute has begun.

The Repeal Vote

Step one: Repeal Obamacare in the House...CHECK

I like the Wall Street Journal's take on the vote:

Democrats are deriding last night's House vote to repeal ObamaCare as "symbolic," and it was, but that is not the same as meaningless. The stunning political reality is that a new entitlement that was supposed to be a landmark of liberal governance has been repudiated by a majority of one chamber of Congress only 10 months after it passed. This sort of thing never happens.

More House Members—245 in total—voted to rescind the new entitlement than the 219 Democrats who voted to create it last March. That partisan majority narrowly prevailed over all 178 Republicans and some 38 Democrats. The three Democrats who favored repeal yesterday confirmed the bipartisan opposition to the kind of vast new social program that historically has been built on a national bipartisan consensus.

Long, long way to go, but it's a good first step...

Gibbs: Senate will save Obamacare

He might be right.

Though Republicans are rattling their sabers with threats to repeal the new healthcare and financial regulatory laws, the White House feels safe with its buffer in the Democratic Senate.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Thursday he does not think repeal legislation would make it out of both houses of Congress.

“I honestly don't think it will come to that,” Gibbs said...

I'm not sure that that's true. But even if it is, tremendous benefit accrues to the Republicans for pushing it and making the Senate vote.

• It demonstrates to the people that they are listening, and that they're doing what they were sent to do.
• It forces Ben Nelson and Sherrod Brown and Bill Nelson and Jon Tester and Kent Conrad and Jim Webb and Bob Casey and Dianne Feinstein and all of the rest of the class of 2012 Democratic incumbents to stand up, after the American people have clearly spoken, and defy the will of the people again.

That second one is the reason that I'm far less confident than Gibbs that the Senate will prevent the President from having to veto a repeal bill. Ben Nelson's may not win re-election anyway, but he's got no chance if he votes against repeal. Herb Kohl just watched Russ Feingold go down in a Republican wave over Wisconsin. Bill Nelson just saw Marco Rubio win a massive victory in Florida. Joe Manchin is already on record as opposing Obamacare. Can Jim Webb survive another pro-Obamacare vote?

The leadership obviously won't want it to get to the floor. And they may be able to prevent it, or filibuster it. If it actually comes to a vote, I'm not certain that there are 50 anti-repeal votes in that chamber. But even if there are, forcing them to declare it can only help Republicans, so they should be pushing it. Hard. Starting on day 1, and not stopping.