Monday, September 22, 2014

Monday pythagorean - 9/22/2014

Uncle Pythagoras looked at the 4.67 runs allowed per game, and the 2.167 runs scored per game, and said, "How the heck did this team win two games?"
  • As disappointing as this season has been in nearly every respect, it's still primarily sadness I feel as it winds down. I love the basebally season, having a game every night, and I'm always sad to see it go, no matter how it went.


  • The great thing about baseball is how, after watching for so long, you still see things you've never seen before. They aren't all good, of course, like Jemile Weeks, as the tying run at third base with no outs in the top of the 9th, gets hit - in fair territory - by a batted ball. It wasn't quite Steve-Lyons-thrown-out-trying-to-steal-third-with-Boggs-at-the-plate stupid, but on the other hand, all he had to do was stay in foul territory.


  • Daniel Nava (.368/.400/.421/.821, 3.18 runs created, 6.63 RC/25 outs) and David Ortiz (.308/.308/1.000/1.308, 3.93 runs created, 10.91 RC/25 outs) were productive (.344/.364/.656/1.020, 7.16 runs created, 8.52 RC/25 outs). The rest of team - not so much (.209/.263/.291/.554, 11.07 runs created, 1.91 RC/25 outs).


  • Another two Red Sox players picked up their first Major League hits this week, as Rusney Castillo and Bryce Brentz both debuted and both picked up hits.


  • Castillo has demonstrated, in his first week in the Majors, some defensive skills, including an outstanding throwing arm. And he's made contact at that plate, but he has not yet hit anything with any real authority. There are hints of the kinds of potential that would justify the contract to which they signed him, but also hints of the kinds of flaws that would make it a bad deal. The thing is, there's no reason to expect him, given what he's done and been through, for him to be ready yet. So I'd say that, on the whole, the Major League debut has been a positive.


  • David Ortiz became the first man ever to reach 8 30 HR, 100 RBI seasons in a Red Sox uniform. Since I don't care about RBI at all, this means not much to me. But there's no question that he's been a great player in Boston, and he's been fun to watch.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - With three HR on the week, David Ortiz (.308/.308/1.000/1.308, 3.93 runs created, 10.91 RC/25 outs) was productive when no one else - well, almost no one else - was.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Allen Webster had a good start. Joe Kelly had a good start. There were a bunch of decent relief performances. But nothing special, and no award.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/21/2014
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Oakland4.53(3)3.56(2)0.608(1)94618570-9
LA Angels4.85(1)3.9(6)0.599(2)936396603
Baltimore4.39(5)3.65(3)0.585(3)916493622
Seattle3.94(12)3.35(1)0.574(4)89668372-6
Detroit4.73(2)4.35(10)0.538(5)837286693
Cleveland4.19(7)4.08(8)0.512(6)797681742
Kansas City4(9)3.9(5)0.512(7)797584705
Toronto4.42(4)4.31(9)0.511(8)79767877-1
Tampa Bay3.83(14)3.8(4)0.504(9)79777581-4
NY Yankees3.85(13)4.05(7)0.477(10)748180756
Minnesota4.39(6)4.86(14)0.453(11)70856689-4
Houston3.96(11)4.49(12)0.442(12)698769870
Chicago Sox4.14(8)4.7(13)0.441(13)688771843
Boston3.8(15)4.42(11)0.432(14)678968881
Texas3.98(10)4.86(14)0.41(15)64916293-2
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
LA Angels10062
Baltimore9765
Detroit9072
Oakland8973
Kansas City8874
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
LA Angels10062
Baltimore9765
Detroit9072
Oakland8973
Kansas City8874
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas6.33(1)3(3)0.797(1)51510
Baltimore5.17(2)2.5(2)0.791(2)5142-1
Cleveland3.86(9)2.29(1)0.723(3)52520
Houston4.14(7)3.29(6)0.604(4)4334-1
Detroit5(3)4.33(7)0.565(5)33330
Tampa Bay3.33(11)3.17(5)0.523(6)33330
Chicago Sox4.5(5)4.33(7)0.517(7)33330
NY Yankees2.86(12)3.14(4)0.457(8)34431
Kansas City3.83(10)4.5(9)0.427(9)33330
Minnesota4.67(4)5.5(14)0.425(10)33330
Seattle4.43(6)5.57(15)0.396(11)34340
LA Angels4(8)5.14(13)0.387(12)34340
Oakland2.83(13)4.83(11)0.273(13)24240
Toronto2.57(14)5(12)0.228(14)2516-1
Boston2.17(15)4.67(10)0.197(15)15241

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