Monday, July 15, 2013

Monday Pythagorean report, 7/15/2013

The All Star break arrives, and the most wins in baseball belong to your Boston Red Sox. As everyone no doubt expected before the season began...
  • Not much help forthcoming from the opponents of the Tampa Rays, who have won 9-of-10 and 14-of-16 to move to within 2 1/2 games of the Red Sox. (Not that much was expected, given that they were hosting the Twins and Astros.) Since 6/28, the Red Sox have gone 9-6, .600 ball, and lost 4 1/2 games in the standings to the Rays. But they've extended their lead over the Orioles and Yankees.
  • People are wont to speak of the All Star break as the halfway point, or "unofficial halfway" point of the season. Actually, the Red Sox have played nearly 60 % of their games. 97 down, 65 to go.
  • Of the AL East teams, the Red Sox have both the best home winning percentage (.659) and the best road winning percentage (.540).
  • The Red Sox also have the highest percentage of home games remaining (34-of-65, 52.3%). [The Blue Jays have 35 home games remaining, but also 33 road games remaining, as the Jays have played three fewer games than the Red Sox thus far.]
  • The Red Sox have the best record in the AL. They're one game behind the Cardinals, tied with the Pirates, for the best record in baseball.
  • Boston leads all of Major League baseball in runs scored, with 498, 21 runs better than 2nd place Detroit. Their run differential (91) is the second-best in baseball behind St. Louis (125).
  • Great first Major League start for Brandon Workman, who took a no-hitter into the seventh, and then lost it on an infield single. The 2nd-hit, unfortunately, left the park on yet another day when the offense was struggling, and they ended up losing, but Workman was excellent.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - I apologize if this is getting repetitive, but David Ortiz (.360/.433/.720/1.153) just continues to roll on. At age 38, he's as good now as he's ever been, and has been consistently excellent this year.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Workman's start yesterday was, despite the disappointing ending, excellent. John Lackey continues to dominate. But the most award-worthy performance of the week came from journeyman knuckle-baller Steven Wright, whose 5 2/3 scoreless innings allowed them to win a game in which they trailed big early, and do it without using anyone else out of the bullpen.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/15/2013
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit5.24(1)4.26(7)0.593(1)56385242-4
Boston5.19(2)4.24(6)0.591(2)574058391
Oakland4.52(8)3.86(1)0.571(3)544156392
Tampa Bay4.68(6)4.05(3)0.565(4)544255411
Baltimore4.81(3)4.53(10)0.528(5)514553432
Texas4.33(9)4.08(4)0.526(6)504554414
Cleveland4.78(4)4.52(9)0.526(7)504551441
NY Yankees3.93(13)3.95(2)0.498(8)474851444
LA Angels4.73(5)4.77(14)0.496(9)46474449-2
Kansas City4.01(11)4.1(5)0.49(10)45474349-2
Toronto4.55(7)4.68(12)0.487(11)46484549-1
Minnesota4.21(10)4.74(13)0.446(12)41513953-2
Seattle4.01(12)4.6(11)0.437(13)425343521
Chicago Sox3.75(14)4.4(8)0.427(14)39533755-2
Houston3.73(15)5.26(15)0.349(15)336133610


Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9765
Oakland9567
Tampa Bay9369
Texas9270
Detroit9072


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9666
Oakland9468
Detroit9270
Tampa Bay9270
Texas8973



Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Tampa Bay4.14(7)2.29(2)0.748(1)52611
Cleveland3.86(8)2.57(3)0.677(2)52520
Seattle6.86(1)5.71(15)0.583(3)43430
Baltimore5.14(3)4.86(12)0.526(4)43430
Boston5.71(2)5.43(14)0.523(5)43430
Chicago Sox4.71(4)4.71(8)0.5(6)4334-1
Detroit4.57(5)4.71(8)0.486(7)34431
Minnesota3.57(11)3.71(4)0.482(8)3425-1
NY Yankees3.57(11)3.86(5)0.465(9)34340
Oakland2(15)2.17(1)0.463(10)33421
Texas3.86(8)4.43(6)0.437(11)34340
Toronto3.83(10)4.83(11)0.396(12)24240
LA Angels4.2(6)5.4(13)0.387(13)2314-1
Kansas City2.86(13)4.57(7)0.297(14)25250
Houston2.8(14)4.8(10)0.272(15)14140

Labels: ,

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link