Monday, July 01, 2013

Monday Pythagorean - 7/1/2013

So we pass the halfway mark in the 2013 season, and it's been a much better first half than the first half of the 2012 season...
  • With yesterday's win, the Boston Red Sox became the first AL team, and the 2nd overall behind the shocking Pittsburgh Pirates, to reach 50 wins.
  • What a difference a year makes: The 2013 Red Sox' 50th win came in their 84th game, on June 30, and raised their record to 50-34. The 2012 Red Sox won their 50th game in their 101st, on July 28th, and raised their record to 50-51.
  • A week ago, the big story in baseball was everyone's pre-season darlings, the Toronto Blue Jays, who had won 11 straight, getting to 2 games over .500 and within 5 games of the lead in the east. A 2-5 week, including losses in 3-of-4 in Boston, falling back under .500 and 8 1/2 games out, can be expected to cool that talk down considerably.
  • For the first time, we're starting to see some separation in the AL East. Yes, the Orioles are only 2 1/2 back. But the Rays (6), Yankees (6 1/2) and Blue Jays (8 1/2) are no longer breathing down the Red Sox' necks. No one is out of it yet, but everyone other than Baltimore is more than just a couple of games back.
  • To say that the Red Sox haven't had the injury problems that some other teams (New York springs to mind) have had isn't to say that they've had no injury issues at all. While they've struggled at closer with Andrew Bailey, let's not forget that the man who had that job is out for the season with Tommy John surgery. Their best starter (Clay Buchholz) has now been down for close to a month with a stiff neck. And Jon Lester finally put another good performance together this week only to leave the game with a hip problem. (His recent performances left open the quetion as to whether that was a positive or a negative.) The good news is that it's apparently not serious, and he's expected to make his next start.
  • I've spent much of the week on the road, getting score updates on my phone, and not having the chance to see much of the team, or follow the coverage carefully. And wondering, occasionally, "who is Brandon Snyder? Who is Jonathan Diaz? What are they doing getting at-bats for the Red Sox?"
  • Hopefully Stephen Drew will be back soon.
  • And hopefully Will Middlebrooks learns how to hit in the minors.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Stephen Drew (.400/.400/.933/1.333) hit really well before going down with the hamstring pull, but played in less than four full games. (He played in four games, so he played in fewer than five, but he didn't finish the fourth game, so he played in less than four full. It sounds a little awkward, but I do know the difference.) Jacoby Ellsbury (.385/.448/.462/.910) and David Ortiz (.333/.545/.467/1.012) produced a lot of offense. But the best player this week was Dustin Pedroia (.458/.481/.750/1.231) on another torrid streak.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Had he not allowed the game-tying HR in the 9th inning yesterday, this would have been Koji Uehara, who finished four games and settled the 9th inning issue, at least for the week. Ryan Dempster pitched pretty well in two starts. But the award this week goes to John Lackey for his dominant start against the Rockies, striking out a career-high 12 while allowing two runs over seven innings.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/1/2013
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Boston5.19(1)4.23(6)0.593(1)503450340
Detroit5.14(2)4.22(5)0.589(2)47334337-4
Oakland4.67(6)4.01(3)0.569(3)473648351
Texas4.33(9)3.93(2)0.545(4)453748343
Cleveland4.83(4)4.49(9)0.533(5)443844380
Baltimore4.94(3)4.6(11)0.532(6)443947363
Tampa Bay4.61(7)4.39(7)0.522(7)433943390
Kansas City4.01(11)3.9(1)0.513(8)41383841-3
LA Angels4.78(5)4.7(14)0.507(9)42403943-3
Toronto4.6(8)4.6(12)0.5(10)41404041-1
NY Yankees3.83(12)4.02(4)0.477(11)394242393
Minnesota4.33(10)4.7(13)0.463(12)364236420
Chicago Sox3.77(14)4.43(8)0.427(13)34453247-2
Seattle3.71(15)4.54(10)0.409(14)344835471
Houston3.78(13)5.15(15)0.363(15)305230520

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9666
Texas9567
Oakland9468
Baltimore9270
Detroit8775

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9666
Oakland9369
Texas9270
Detroit9171
Baltimore8973

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
LA Angels6.33(2)3(3)0.797(1)51601
Oakland5.2(5)3.2(4)0.709(2)41410
Baltimore5.29(4)3.29(5)0.705(3)52520
Boston6.17(3)4.33(7)0.656(4)42511
Texas4(9)2.83(2)0.653(5)42420
Cleveland6.38(1)4.88(9)0.62(6)53621
Tampa Bay3.17(13)2.5(1)0.606(7)42420
Kansas City4.67(6)4.5(8)0.517(8)33330
Minnesota4.17(8)5(10)0.417(9)3324-1
Toronto3.43(12)4.29(6)0.399(10)3425-1
Seattle4(9)5.8(13)0.336(11)2314-1
Detroit3.83(11)5.67(12)0.328(12)2415-1
Chicago Sox4.33(7)7.17(15)0.285(13)2415-1
NY Yankees2.83(14)5.33(11)0.239(14)15150
Houston2.8(15)6(14)0.199(15)14140

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