Monday, June 10, 2013

Monday Pythagorean - 6/10/2013

Meat Loaf famously sang that "two out of three ain't bad." For a Major League baseball team, it not only "ain't bad," it's very good...
  • Obviously, the offense was outstanding this week. "Sure," you might say, "because they had a 17-run game." Which they did. And that definitely raises the average. But if you take that one out of the mix, they still led the AL in runs scored, averaging 6 runs/game in the other five.
  • As good as it was, it could certainly have been better. They outscored their opponents by 20 runs, which is plenty to win six games, not just four. But one weak offensive performance (3-2) and one bullpen meltdown (9-5) cost them two games.
  • And it didn't help that they ... didn't get any help. The Yankees went 6-1, gaining a game and a half on the Sox.
  • They did increase their lead over Baltimore by one game, as the Orioles went 3-3. The Rays remain four back, matching Boston's 4-2 record.
  • Speaking of the Yankees, well, we've seen this before. The Red Sox have played much better than New York, with a +80 run differential (2nd best in the AL behind Detroit, with only St. Louis better in the NL) vs. New York's +16. Boston should have a 6 game lead over New York. But the Yankees have outperformed their pythagorean projection by four games, while the Red Sox have underperformed theirs by one.
  • According to Baseball Prospectus' third-order winning percentage (based on records projected by component run-scoring and opposition), the Red Sox have the second-best record in Major League baseball, behind the Tigers.
  • Stat of the week, part 1: Jose Iglesias walked five (5) times. He walked five times in his first 52 Major League games, and then five times in his next three.
  • I've been as negative as anyone about Jose Iglesias' ability and potential. And I want to emphasize that we're still talking about a miniscule sample size - anyone can hit anything for fifty at-bats. And I am still skeptical. All that said, if I'm in charge, Will Middlebrooks spends the next month in Pawtucket trying to swing at hittable pitches and let unhittable pitches go by. Because Iglesias has been extremely productive thus far, and I need to understand whether that's real (obviously, the extent of the production is not sustainable, but he could drop a lot from what he's done and still be a viable Major Leaguer) or just a small-sample fluke.
  • Stat of the week, part 2: Dustin Pedroia, who had an excellent week (.333/.429/.625/1.054), put up a .429 OBP, which is outstanding. Seven of his teammates put up better ones.
  • Three home runs is a good week. The Red Sox had three players (Ortiz, Carp and Saltalamacchia) hit three this week.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Is Mike Carp the 4th outfielder or the 5th? The 2nd 1st baseman or the 3rd? I've lost track. In any event, he was outstanding this week, hitting (.500/.526/1.125/1.651) and leading the team in both Runs Created and Runs Created per out.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Ryan Dempster started twice and won twice, but on the strength of run support rather than his own unspectacular efforts. No one else threw more than 6 2/3 innings. There were no spectacular relief performances. So I'm awarding John Lackey this week, who gave up only five hits and one run, while striking out five and walking none in his start against Texas.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/10/2013
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit5.28(1)3.92(4)0.634(1)39223526-4
Boston5.25(2)4(5)0.622(2)40243925-1
Texas4.55(7)3.89(2)0.571(3)352737252
Oakland4.65(6)4.02(6)0.566(4)372838271
Tampa Bay4.92(4)4.48(9)0.542(5)342834280
NY Yankees4(11)3.75(1)0.53(6)333037264
Baltimore4.95(3)4.75(12)0.519(7)333035282
Kansas City3.97(12)3.9(3)0.508(8)30302832-2
Cleveland4.76(5)4.68(10)0.508(9)31313032-1
LA Angels4.48(8)4.84(13)0.465(10)29342736-2
Minnesota4.27(10)4.71(11)0.455(11)273327330
Toronto4.4(9)4.94(14)0.448(12)28342735-1
Chicago Sox3.51(15)4.08(7)0.431(13)263527341
Seattle3.63(14)4.38(8)0.415(14)273727370
Houston3.84(13)5.38(15)0.351(15)224222420


Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9963
Texas9765
Oakland9567
NY Yankees9567
Detroit9369


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston10062
Detroit9963
Texas9468
Oakland9369
NY Yankees8973


Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Kansas City4(7)1.83(1)0.807(1)51510
Detroit5.33(2)2.67(4)0.78(2)51510
Boston7.83(1)4.5(11)0.734(3)42420
NY Yankees4.14(6)2.57(3)0.705(4)52611
Toronto3.8(10)2.4(2)0.699(5)32320
Oakland4.43(4)3.14(5)0.652(6)5243-1
Chicago Sox4(7)4(7)0.5(7)4334-1
Seattle3.29(13)3.57(6)0.462(8)34340
Tampa Bay3.83(9)4.33(9)0.444(9)33330
Baltimore4.17(5)5(12)0.417(10)33330
LA Angels4.5(3)5.83(14)0.383(11)24240
Houston2.71(14)4(7)0.33(12)25250
Cleveland3.5(11)5.67(13)0.293(13)2406-2
Minnesota2.5(15)4.33(9)0.268(14)24240
Texas3.5(11)6.5(15)0.244(15)15241

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