Monday, May 13, 2013

Monday Pythagorean, 5/13/2013

Let's look on the bright side - they put together two scintillating wins this week, and one more late-inning comeback!
  • Ok, yeah, that's weak. It was a disaster, and there's no shine to be put on this particular sneaker.
  • The pitching was bad, with games of 12 and 15 runs allowed, and ninth-inning runs allowed that turned wins into ties and ties into losses.
  • The offense was weak, with games of one, three, two and four runs scored.
  • The defense was porous, with eight errors on the week, including seven total, and at least one in each game, in the four games against the Twins.
  • Their timing was bad. They scored eight runs, their biggest output of the week, in one of the two games that they allowed double digits, and lost, when eight runs would have won five of the games they played. They scored five runs in Lester's shutout, sandwiched between 5-3 and 3-2 losses.
  • Having lost, now, 5-of-7 and 8-of-10, they've dropped back in to a second-place tie with Baltimore behind the Yankees.
  • They started the season with two closers. They put them both on the the DL this week, one of them (Hanrahan) for the year.
  • The Ortiz hitting streak came to an end at 27 games.
  • The Buchholz winning streak came to an end at six. The winning streak in Buchholz' starts ended at seven.
  • Have I mentioned that the pitching was bad? Out of 15 teams in the AL, the Red Sox 6.571 runs allowed per game this week was ... 15th.
  • The second Allen Webster start (8 runs, 8 2/3) was not good. Of course, given what Doubront did when Webster got knocked out of the game (5 1/3, six runs, plus one inherited), it probably didn't matter which of them got that start.
  • Superficially, with six hits, five of which were doubles, and a .261 batting average, it looked like an OK week for Middlebrooks. Uh, no. He had no walks, so his OBP on the week was also .261/.261/.478/.739. That's not productive. It's just not. And it was one of his better weeks on the year thus far.
  • Dustin Pedroia (.483/.531/.655/1.186), Shane Victorino (.393/.433/.643/1.076) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.444/.474/.833/1.307) had great weeks. Stephen Drew (.346/.393/.500/.893) had a very good one. But there wasn't much beyond that, which is why the team's production was poor.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury is hitting .257/.311/.365/.676 for the year. If he wants that big free agent contract, he's going to have to pick it up significantly.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - The best per-plate-appearance production came from Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.444/.474/.833/1.307), but he only had 19 of them. The most production came from, and the award goes to, Dustin Pedroia (.483/.531/.655/1.186).
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - One of the few bright spots this week was provided by the performance of Jon Lester, who retired 27 of the 28 Blue Jays he faced in Friday night's game, just one hit away from a perfect game.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/13/2013
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit5.37(1)3.86(4)0.647(1)23122015-3
Texas4.59(7)3.51(1)0.62(2)231424131
Baltimore5(3)4.18(7)0.581(3)221623151
Cleveland5.09(2)4.26(9)0.581(4)201520150
NY Yankees4.36(9)3.83(3)0.559(5)201623133
Boston4.76(5)4.24(8)0.553(6)211722161
Kansas City4.24(10)3.94(5)0.533(7)181618160
Tampa Bay4.73(6)4.43(10)0.53(8)20171918-1
Minnesota4.59(8)4.56(11)0.503(9)171717170
Oakland4.79(4)4.77(12)0.502(10)20191920-1
Chicago Sox3.43(15)3.77(2)0.457(11)16191520-1
Seattle3.55(14)4.08(6)0.437(12)172118201
LA Angels4.11(11)5.03(13)0.409(13)15221423-1
Toronto3.95(13)5.15(14)0.381(14)152415240
Houston4.05(12)6.18(15)0.316(15)12261028-2



Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Texas10557
NY Yankees10458
Baltimore9864
Boston9468
Detroit9369


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit10260
Texas10260
Baltimore9567
Cleveland9468
NY Yankees9369



Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
NY Yankees4(10)2.5(1)0.703(1)42511
Seattle3.6(12)2.6(3)0.645(2)32320
Cleveland5.14(7)3.86(4)0.629(3)43612
Tampa Bay6.29(2)4.86(9)0.616(4)43521
Chicago Sox3(14)2.5(1)0.583(5)33330
Baltimore5.17(5)4.33(6)0.58(6)33421
Minnesota6.43(1)5.43(13)0.577(7)43430
Detroit4.8(8)4.6(8)0.519(8)3214-2
Texas5.5(3)5.33(12)0.514(9)33421
Toronto5.29(4)5.29(11)0.5(10)43430
LA Angels3.83(11)4.17(5)0.462(11)33330
Houston5.17(5)6.17(14)0.42(12)3324-1
Kansas City3.29(13)4.43(7)0.367(13)3416-2
Boston4.14(9)6.57(15)0.301(14)25250
Oakland2.29(15)5.14(10)0.185(15)16160

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