Monday, April 22, 2013

Monday Pythagorean - 4/22/2013

Winning more than you lose makes a good week. 5-2 is always a good week. And yet, when the week starts at 5-0, it feels like a sqandered opportunity...
  • After three weeks, the Red Sox are tied with the Rangers for the best record in the AL. Their run differential (+31) is the best in the AL, and trails only Atlanta (+33) and Cincinnati (+32) in MLB. They've done that while playing their first four series against AL East opponents.
  • Through 18 games, they are four games ahead of the 8-10 2012 Red Sox. They are five games ahead of the 7-11 2011 Red Sox.
  • The streak ended at 16. In game 17, a Red Sox starter gave up more than three runs for the first time this year, as Ryan Dempster allowed four in a loss to the Royals.
  • I've got to admit that I had never heard of Lorenzo Cain before Saturday's game. I've heard of him now. What a weekend he had, reaching base 8 times in 13 plate appearances, driving in four, homering, scoring all three of KC's runs on Saturday. I don't know whether he's a prospect or a journeyman or something in between, but that was quite a performance in this series.
  • The return of David Ortiz is good to see, and he came back swinging, with five hits in his first 8 at-bats, hitting .625/.625/.750/1.375 for the weekend.
  • Daniel Nava is now hitting .326/.441/.609/1.049 for the season. Until he shows some signs - serious evidence - of this being a fluke, he's got to be in the lineup every day.
  • William Middlebrooks(.176/.208/.382/.591) has been very bad so far this year. And actually worse than the numbers suggest. Outside of one game, he's provided significant negative value offensively, hitting .127/.164/.190/.355. He's got 22 strikeouts, which doesn't concern me too much, and 3 walks, which does. He's now hitting .266/.302/.484/.785 in 92 Major League games, with 16 walks and 92 strikeouts. That isn't going to get it done for a third baseman today.
  • Despite the end of the streak, the starting pitching continues to be excellent. Last night, Allen Webster made his Red Sox debut with a very good 6 IP, 2 ER performance.
  • If Webster or de la Rosa actually turns out to be a good player (or if both are), that elevates the trade with the Dodgers from good to great.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - This would have been a no-brainer had the fly ball he hit in the bottom of the ninth of the second game on Sunday carried 10 feet further to reach the center-field wall, but even without that, Mike Napoli (.345/.406/.690/1.096) had a very good week. And no one on the Red Sox had a better...
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Tough call this week. The started who got two starts, Dempster, pitched well twice, but they only won one of them, and he didn't get the win. And he was the first starter on the season to give up four runs. There wasn't a dominating bullpen performance - Uehara was a candidate until the 8th inning in game two of the double-header. So I'm going with Clay Buchholz, again, for his 8-inning, two run performance on Saturday.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/22/2013
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Boston4.72(4)3(2)0.696(1)135126-1
Texas4.33(8)2.78(1)0.693(2)1261260
Oakland5.26(1)4.21(7)0.601(3)1181271
NY Yankees5.18(2)4.29(8)0.585(4)1071070
Kansas City4(11)3.35(3)0.58(5)1071070
Baltimore5(3)4.44(9)0.554(6)1081080
Detroit4.44(6)4.11(5)0.536(7)10899-1
Cleveland4.71(5)5.12(13)0.462(8)89710-1
Chicago Sox3.39(14)3.72(4)0.457(9)810711-1
Tampa Bay3.78(13)4.17(6)0.455(10)8108100
Minnesota4.2(9)4.67(10)0.452(11)78871
LA Angels4.35(7)4.88(12)0.448(12)89710-1
Toronto3.79(12)5.26(14)0.354(13)7128111
Houston4.11(10)6(15)0.334(14)612513-1
Seattle3.05(15)4.8(11)0.304(15)6147131


Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston10854
Texas10854
Oakland10260
NY Yankees9567
Kansas City9567


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston11250
Texas11250
Oakland9864
NY Yankees9567
Kansas City9468


Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas5.8(2)2.2(1)0.855(1)41410
Minnesota5.75(3)3(3)0.767(2)31401
LA Angels6(1)4(7)0.677(3)32320
Tampa Bay5(6)3.43(6)0.666(4)5243-1
Boston4.57(8)3.14(4)0.665(5)52520
Baltimore5.67(4)4.83(12)0.572(6)33421
Chicago Sox3.17(13)2.83(2)0.551(7)3324-1
NY Yankees4.67(7)4.33(8)0.534(8)33421
Cleveland5.67(4)5.33(14)0.528(9)3324-1
Kansas City3.2(12)3.2(5)0.5(10)32320
Oakland4.33(9)4.5(9)0.483(11)33330
Toronto3.57(11)4.71(11)0.376(12)34340
Houston3.83(10)8(15)0.206(13)15150
Detroit2(14)4.5(9)0.185(14)15241
Seattle1.33(15)5.17(13)0.077(15)06151

Labels: ,

|

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Comment?

<< Home

Links to this post

Links to this post:

Create a Link