Winning more than you lose makes a good week. 5-2 is always a good week. And yet, when the week starts at 5-0, it feels like a sqandered opportunity...
- After three weeks, the Red Sox are tied with the Rangers for the best record in the AL. Their run differential (+31) is the best in the AL, and trails only Atlanta (+33) and Cincinnati (+32) in MLB. They've done that while playing their first four series against AL East opponents.
- Through 18 games, they are four games ahead of the 8-10 2012 Red Sox. They are five games ahead of the 7-11 2011 Red Sox.
- The streak ended at 16. In game 17, a Red Sox starter gave up more than three runs for the first time this year, as Ryan Dempster allowed four in a loss to the Royals.
- I've got to admit that I had never heard of Lorenzo Cain before Saturday's game. I've heard of him now. What a weekend he had, reaching base 8 times in 13 plate appearances, driving in four, homering, scoring all three of KC's runs on Saturday. I don't know whether he's a prospect or a journeyman or something in between, but that was quite a performance in this series.
- The return of David Ortiz is good to see, and he came back swinging, with five hits in his first 8 at-bats, hitting .625/.625/.750/1.375 for the weekend.
- Daniel Nava is now hitting .326/.441/.609/1.049 for the season. Until he shows some signs - serious evidence - of this being a fluke, he's got to be in the lineup every day.
- William Middlebrooks(.176/.208/.382/.591) has been very bad so far this year. And actually worse than the numbers suggest. Outside of one game, he's provided significant negative value offensively, hitting .127/.164/.190/.355. He's got 22 strikeouts, which doesn't concern me too much, and 3 walks, which does. He's now hitting .266/.302/.484/.785 in 92 Major League games, with 16 walks and 92 strikeouts. That isn't going to get it done for a third baseman today.
- Despite the end of the streak, the starting pitching continues to be excellent. Last night, Allen Webster made his Red Sox debut with a very good 6 IP, 2 ER performance.
- If Webster or de la Rosa actually turns out to be a good player (or if both are), that elevates the trade with the Dodgers from good to great.
- Red Sox Player of the Week - This would have been a no-brainer had the fly ball he hit in the bottom of the ninth of the second game on Sunday carried 10 feet further to reach the center-field wall, but even without that, Mike Napoli (.345/.406/.690/1.096) had a very good week. And no one on the Red Sox had a better...
- Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Tough call this week. The started who got two starts, Dempster, pitched well twice, but they only won one of them, and he didn't get the win. And he was the first starter on the season to give up four runs. There wasn't a dominating bullpen performance - Uehara was a candidate until the 8th inning in game two of the double-header. So I'm going with Clay Buchholz, again, for his 8-inning, two run performance on Saturday.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/22/2013
| | | | | | | Projected | Actual | | |
|---|
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck | |
|---|
| Boston | 4.72 | (4) | 3 | (2) | 0.696 | (1) | 13 | 5 | 12 | 6 | -1 | |
| Texas | 4.33 | (8) | 2.78 | (1) | 0.693 | (2) | 12 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 0 | |
| Oakland | 5.26 | (1) | 4.21 | (7) | 0.601 | (3) | 11 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 1 | |
| NY Yankees | 5.18 | (2) | 4.29 | (8) | 0.585 | (4) | 10 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 0 | |
| Kansas City | 4 | (11) | 3.35 | (3) | 0.58 | (5) | 10 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 0 | |
| Baltimore | 5 | (3) | 4.44 | (9) | 0.554 | (6) | 10 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 0 | |
| Detroit | 4.44 | (6) | 4.11 | (5) | 0.536 | (7) | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | -1 | |
| Cleveland | 4.71 | (5) | 5.12 | (13) | 0.462 | (8) | 8 | 9 | 7 | 10 | -1 | |
| Chicago Sox | 3.39 | (14) | 3.72 | (4) | 0.457 | (9) | 8 | 10 | 7 | 11 | -1 | |
| Tampa Bay | 3.78 | (13) | 4.17 | (6) | 0.455 | (10) | 8 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 0 | |
| Minnesota | 4.2 | (9) | 4.67 | (10) | 0.452 | (11) | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 1 | |
| LA Angels | 4.35 | (7) | 4.88 | (12) | 0.448 | (12) | 8 | 9 | 7 | 10 | -1 | |
| Toronto | 3.79 | (12) | 5.26 | (14) | 0.354 | (13) | 7 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 1 | |
| Houston | 4.11 | (10) | 6 | (15) | 0.334 | (14) | 6 | 12 | 5 | 13 | -1 | |
| Seattle | 3.05 | (15) | 4.8 | (11) | 0.304 | (15) | 6 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 1 | |
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| Boston | 108 | 54 | |
| Texas | 108 | 54 | |
| Oakland | 102 | 60 | |
| NY Yankees | 95 | 67 | |
| Kansas City | 95 | 67 | |
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| Boston | 112 | 50 | |
| Texas | 112 | 50 | |
| Oakland | 98 | 64 | |
| NY Yankees | 95 | 67 | |
| Kansas City | 94 | 68 | |
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | Projected | Actual | | |
|---|
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck | |
|---|
| Texas | 5.8 | (2) | 2.2 | (1) | 0.855 | (1) | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Minnesota | 5.75 | (3) | 3 | (3) | 0.767 | (2) | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| LA Angels | 6 | (1) | 4 | (7) | 0.677 | (3) | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | (6) | 3.43 | (6) | 0.666 | (4) | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | |
| Boston | 4.57 | (8) | 3.14 | (4) | 0.665 | (5) | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baltimore | 5.67 | (4) | 4.83 | (12) | 0.572 | (6) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Chicago Sox | 3.17 | (13) | 2.83 | (2) | 0.551 | (7) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | |
| NY Yankees | 4.67 | (7) | 4.33 | (8) | 0.534 | (8) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cleveland | 5.67 | (4) | 5.33 | (14) | 0.528 | (9) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | |
| Kansas City | 3.2 | (12) | 3.2 | (5) | 0.5 | (10) | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Oakland | 4.33 | (9) | 4.5 | (9) | 0.483 | (11) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Toronto | 3.57 | (11) | 4.71 | (11) | 0.376 | (12) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Houston | 3.83 | (10) | 8 | (15) | 0.206 | (13) | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Detroit | 2 | (14) | 4.5 | (9) | 0.185 | (14) | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Seattle | 1.33 | (15) | 5.17 | (13) | 0.077 | (15) | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
Labels: pythagorean, Red Sox
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