Monday, May 27, 2013

Monday Pythagorean - 5/27/2013

Let's start with this - not all 4-3 weeks are created equal. On the scale of 1-10, this was an eleven...
  • After starting the week 0-2, they finish winning four-of-five.
  • After trailing from the top of the 1st on Saturday, they scored three in the bottom of the 8th and held on for the win.
  • After trailing from the top of the 1st on Sunday, they scored four in the bottom of the 9th for the walk-off win.
  • They finish the week having moved back into a tie for first in the AL East.
  • Did it seem as if they spent a lot of time trailing for a team that went 4-3? Yup. Of the 63 innings they played, they trailed at the end of 35 of them, were tied after 8 more, and led after only 20 of them. Of course, four of those were ninths, which is the important thing.
  • They were outscored in the first three innings 16-12. They were outscored in the 4th-6th innings, 13-3. But they outscored the opposition 20-4 in the last three innings, including 8-2 in the 8th and 6-1 in the 9th.
  • All that said, it was essentially a .500 week. They were mediocre offensively, mediocre on the pitching side (7th in the AL in both runs scored and allowed) and played pretty much .500 ball. They could easily have gone 3-4 or even 2-5 instead.
  • There were no great week's on the offensive side. There wasn't a single Sox player with at least 10 at-bats who had even a .900 OPS on the week, or 5 Runs Created/25 outs,which is unusual. On the flip side, Middlebrooks (in only 12 at-bats) was the only one with a negative RC, which is also unusual. What offense there was tended to be "bunched" and timely.
  • Two sentences I never, ever expected to be typing: "Replacing Middlebrooks with a combination of Ciriaco and Iglesias provided a big offensive upgrade," and "One of the keys to Sunday's ninth inning comeback was the disciplined at-bat from Iglesias, who walked to keep the inning alive."
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - The best per-plate-appearance performances were in short stints by Jose Iglesias (.500/.545/.625/1.170) and Pedro Ciriaco (.500/.500/.667/1.167). Since neither played much, and given how mediocre the overall list of performances is, the player of the week ends up being Daniel Nava (.304/.467/.348/.814).
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - There were people who never wanted to see him in a Red Sox uniform again, but John Lackey has, coming off his elbow surgery, been good-to-very-good. And this week, he was excellent, giving up two hits and one unearned run in seven innings of a stellar win against the Indians, walking three and striking out eight.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/27/2013
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit5.51(1)4.11(5)0.631(1)30182820-2
Texas4.68(8)3.6(1)0.618(2)311932181
Boston4.94(4)4.16(6)0.578(3)292231202
NY Yankees4.31(10)3.82(2)0.555(4)272230193
Cleveland5.06(2)4.51(8)0.553(5)272227220
Oakland4.73(6)4.33(7)0.54(6)282328230
Baltimore5.06(3)4.7(11)0.534(7)272327230
Tampa Bay4.84(5)4.63(10)0.52(8)252425240
Kansas City4.09(12)4.06(4)0.502(9)24232126-3
LA Angels4.69(7)4.82(12)0.488(10)24262327-1
Chicago Sox3.69(14)3.92(3)0.472(11)232524241
Minnesota4.3(11)5(13)0.432(12)20271928-1
Toronto4.4(9)5.22(14)0.422(13)212921290
Seattle3.67(15)4.61(9)0.397(14)203021291
Houston3.94(13)5.94(15)0.321(15)16341436-2



Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Texas10458
NY Yankees9963
Boston9864
Detroit9567
Cleveland8973



Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Texas10161
Detroit10062
Boston9567
NY Yankees9369
Cleveland8973




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
LA Angels8.2(1)1.8(1)0.941(1)50601
Detroit7.4(2)3.6(4)0.789(2)41511
Oakland5.67(6)2.83(2)0.78(3)51510
Chicago Sox3.67(12)3(3)0.591(4)42511
Toronto6.14(3)5.57(10)0.545(5)43430
Boston5(7)4.71(7)0.527(6)43430
Baltimore5.71(4)5.71(11)0.5(7)43430
Texas3.67(12)3.67(5)0.5(7)33330
NY Yankees4.5(8)4.67(6)0.483(9)33330
Tampa Bay4.5(8)5(9)0.452(10)3324-1
Cleveland5.71(4)6.86(14)0.417(11)3425-1
Houston4(10)6(12)0.323(12)24240
Kansas City3(14)4.86(8)0.293(13)2516-1
Minnesota3(14)6.5(13)0.195(14)15160
Seattle4(10)9.2(15)0.179(15)14150

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