Monday Pythagorean, 6/24/2013

Another 3-4 week, but the Orioles get swept by the Jays, the Yankees split with the Rays, and the lead stays at two.

• With the Sox going 6-8 over the past couple of weeks, and Toronto winning 11 straight, the five AL East teams are now separated by five games. And it's not because everyone is clustered in the middle. The Red Sox are still tied for the best record in the league, and there are three teams in the Central and three in the West with records worse than any of the teams in the East.
• While the last couple of weeks haven't been great, they've been a) predominantly road games b) against good teams. 6-8 over that stretch isn't a problem. It only becomes a problem if they continue to play sub-.500 ball for a couple more weeks.
• The last three innings of Sunday's loss in Detroit were about as ugly as they get. Mental mistakes, physical mistakes, runs, outs and baserunners all gifted to a Tiger team that doesn't need the gifts. All made more frustrating by the fact that Doubront outpitched Verlander and they took a lead into the bottom of the 7th.
• The dumbest play in Sunday's late-inning meltdown was not Nava's drop on the transfer from glove to hand, or even the umpire's call on that play. That honor goes to Mike Napoli, who apparently doesn't understand the rules of the game. When Pedroia dropped Torii Hunter's line driver and threw to first, they had an easy double play. Except Napoli touched the bag, removing the force on Jackson before tagging Jackson. So instead of two out and none on, they had one out and one on. Jackson, of course, went on to score the tying run. On a bases-loaded hit-by-pitch.
• Crew chief Ted Barrett, quoted in the Boston Globe: "To have a catch, you have to have complete control and voluntary release. [DiMuro] had him with control, but did not have the voluntary release. When he flipped the ball out of his glove, he never got it into his hand. That's not voluntary release." So, if he had caught the ball (control) and run it back to the infield before flipping it from the glove and missed it, would it still not be an out? How long, exactly, does he need to maintain that control? And, the big question, if he intentionally flips the ball out of his glove, isn't that a "voluntary release"? It's nice to have the umpires answering question, I suppose, which they never used to do, but this strikes me as a weak response. Either he never had control, in which case the release wasn't voluntary, or he did, in which case it was - he voluntarily released it from his control (in his glove hand) and then didn't regain control with his bare hand. It sure looked like a catch to me.
• Q: Who knows what Ken Coleman told Joe Castiglione about double-headers?
  A: Anyone who has listened to a Red Sox radio broadcast within four days of a Red Sox double-header over the past 20 years.
• When he hurt his wrist five years ago, did anyone expect David "Ponce de Leon" Ortiz' age-37 season to look like this? I did not...
• Goat of the Week - A key factor in two of the three losses in Detroit were the four base-runners and three runs allowed by Andrew Bailey, who managed that feat while facing only five hitters. He took two batters on Thursday night to turn a 1-run lead into a 1-run walk-off loss, and then, pitching in the 7th on Sunday, allowed two of three hitters to reach, including the tying run.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - David Ortiz (.429/.467/.714/1.181) continues to rake.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - A decent performance on Sunday against Detroit (2 ER in 5 innings) followed perhaps his best game in the Majors (8 scoreless vs. Tampa) as Felix Doubront threw 13 innings with a 1.38 ERA on the week, winning one and picking up a no-decision despite outpitching Justin Verlander in the second.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/24/2013

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Detroit	5.25	(1)	4.1	(5)	0.612	(1)	45	29	42	32	-3
Boston	5.12	(2)	4.22	(7)	0.587	(2)	46	32	45	33	-1
Oakland	4.64	(8)	4.06	(4)	0.56	(3)	44	34	44	34	0
Texas	4.36	(9)	4.01	(3)	0.537	(4)	41	35	44	32	3
Cleveland	4.66	(6)	4.45	(8)	0.522	(5)	39	35	38	36	-1
Tampa Bay	4.72	(4)	4.54	(10)	0.518	(6)	39	37	39	37	0
Baltimore	4.91	(3)	4.72	(13)	0.517	(7)	39	37	42	34	3
Kansas City	3.96	(11)	3.85	(1)	0.513	(8)	37	36	35	38	-2
Toronto	4.72	(5)	4.64	(11)	0.508	(9)	38	36	38	36	0
NY Yankees	3.91	(12)	3.92	(2)	0.498	(10)	37	38	41	34	4
LA Angels	4.65	(7)	4.84	(14)	0.482	(11)	37	39	33	43	-4
Minnesota	4.34	(10)	4.67	(12)	0.467	(12)	34	38	34	38	0
Chicago Sox	3.73	(14)	4.21	(6)	0.445	(13)	32	41	31	42	-1
Seattle	3.69	(15)	4.45	(9)	0.415	(14)	32	45	34	43	2
Houston	3.84	(13)	5.09	(15)	0.374	(15)	29	48	29	48	0

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

Texas	94	68
Boston	93	69
Detroit	92	70
Oakland	91	71
Baltimore	90	72

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

Detroit	96	66
Boston	94	68
Oakland	91	71
Texas	90	72
Baltimore	87	75

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Toronto	6.5	(1)	3	(1)	0.805	(1)	5	1	6	0	1
Texas	5	(8)	3.86	(3)	0.617	(2)	4	3	6	1	2
Cleveland	4.5	(11)	3.5	(2)	0.613	(3)	4	2	4	2	0
Minnesota	5.83	(4)	4.83	(7)	0.585	(4)	4	2	4	2	0
Chicago Sox	5	(8)	4.86	(9)	0.513	(5)	4	3	3	4	-1
LA Angels	6	(3)	6	(13)	0.5	(6)	3	3	3	4	0
Houston	4.43	(12)	4.57	(5)	0.485	(7)	3	4	3	4	0
Tampa Bay	3.71	(14)	3.86	(3)	0.483	(8)	3	4	3	4	0
Baltimore	5.33	(5)	5.67	(11)	0.472	(9)	3	3	2	4	-1
Detroit	6.17	(2)	6.67	(15)	0.464	(10)	3	3	4	3	1
Boston	5.17	(6)	5.83	(12)	0.445	(11)	3	3	3	4	0
Oakland	4.86	(10)	5.57	(10)	0.438	(12)	3	4	2	5	-1
NY Yankees	3.83	(13)	4.67	(6)	0.411	(13)	2	4	3	3	1
Seattle	5.17	(6)	6.33	(14)	0.408	(14)	2	4	3	4	1
Kansas City	3	(15)	4.83	(7)	0.295	(15)	2	4	2	4	0