Monday, June 17, 2013

Monday Pythagorean, 6/17/2013

Ok, so they're not going to win 'em all, and if you can limit your down weeks, and keep them to 3-4, you'll still be OK in the long run...
  • And unlike last week, they did get some help on the Yankee front, as New York went 1-5, dropping to 3 game behind the Sox. of course, their overall lead didn't grow, since losing 3-4 to the Orioles moved Baltimore into second place, only 1 1/2 games back.
  • Scanning through the radio channels late last week, I caught this gem from Tony Massarotti: "We all know that they're where they are because of the pitching." That is, they've got the best record in the AL because they're 6th in runs allowed per game, and not because they're 2nd in runs scored.
  • It was not a great week for the offense. They scored 6 runs before making an out on Monday night, and then scored 21 runs over the next 63 innings.
  • It looks like a worse week for the pitching staff. But. We need to consider that they played 8 games worth of innings in 7 games. So, while they allowed 4.85 runs/game, they allowed 4.25 runs/9 innings. While they scored 3.85 runs/game, they only scored 3.375 runs/9 innings. So it superficially appears that they were mediocre offensively and really bad with the pitching staff. In reality, they were below average on both fronts.
  • They certainly didn't play well enough to be any better than 3-4.
  • Goat of the Week - Jon Lester. Following a 14-inning win in Tampa on Monday night, with the bullpen stretched thin, they needed a good performance, and, more importantly, innings from their starter. He gave up seven runs before getting pulled without making it through the fifth. They needed a win on Sunday to break even in the series in Baltimore, and he gave up five runs in five innings. And it's not just this week - in his last six starts, he's allowed 47 hits and 29 runs in only 35 innings of work, with a 7.2 ERA.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - The continued excellence of Mike Carp (.350/.435/.700/1.135) has made the absences of Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino easy for the Sox to deal with. It's worth noting that he's now hitting .324/.379/.686/1.065 on the season, with 8 HR in just 105 at-bats. His 1 HR per every 13.125 at-bats leads the team.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - On a night when they really needed him to step up, with a decimated bullpen and an absent Clay Buchholz, Alfredo Aceves gave them six strong (1-run) innings in the rubber game of the Tampa series.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/17/2013
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit5.17(1)3.86(3)0.63(1)42253829-4
Boston5.11(2)4.08(6)0.601(2)43284229-1
Oakland4.62(6)3.92(4)0.575(3)413042291
Kansas City4.05(11)3.76(1)0.534(4)36313334-3
Texas4.29(9)4.03(5)0.529(5)363338312
Baltimore4.87(3)4.64(11)0.522(6)373340303
Tampa Bay4.83(4)4.61(10)0.521(7)363336330
Cleveland4.68(5)4.53(9)0.515(8)35333434-1
NY Yankees3.91(12)3.86(2)0.507(9)353438313
LA Angels4.53(8)4.74(13)0.48(10)33363039-3
Toronto4.56(7)4.78(14)0.478(11)33353236-1
Minnesota4.2(10)4.66(12)0.453(12)303630360
Chicago Sox3.59(14)4.14(7)0.436(13)29372838-1
Seattle3.57(15)4.29(8)0.416(14)294131392
Houston3.79(13)5.14(15)0.363(15)254526441


Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9666
Oakland9666
Baltimore9369
Detroit9270
Texas8973


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit9864
Boston9765
Oakland9468
Baltimore8874
Texas8775



Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Toronto6.17(1)3.17(5)0.772(1)51510
Kansas City4.71(3)2.57(1)0.752(2)52520
Oakland4.33(5)2.83(3)0.685(3)42420
LA Angels5(2)3.67(8)0.638(4)4233-1
Cleveland3.83(9)3(4)0.61(5)42420
Houston3.17(12)2.67(2)0.578(6)33421
Detroit3.8(10)3.2(6)0.578(6)32330
Baltimore4.14(6)3.71(9)0.55(8)43521
Chicago Sox4.6(4)4.8(11)0.481(9)2314-1
Seattle2.83(14)3.33(7)0.426(10)33421
Minnesota3.4(11)4(10)0.426(10)23331
Boston3.86(8)4.86(12)0.396(12)34340
Tampa Bay4(7)5.71(15)0.342(13)25250
NY Yankees3(13)5(13)0.282(14)2415-1
Texas2(15)5.29(14)0.144(15)16160

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