Monday, July 08, 2013

Monday Pythagorean, 7/8/2013

Some 4-2 weeks are more disappointing than others, and this one was about as disappointing as a 4-2 week could be...
  • Objectively speaking, of course, this was yet another successful week. Winning 4-of-6, increasing the division lead from 2 1/2 to 4 1/2 games, those are good things. But they were 3 outs away from a 5-0 start to the week with a four-run lead, and didn't hold on. And followed that up by getting shut out on Sunday, having now failed to score in 12 consecutive innings. So, relative to where they were after 8 innings on Saturday, yeah, the week's a disappointment.
  • In addition, both Tampa and New York picked went 6-1 on the week to pick up a game and a half.
  • (If Brandon Snyder doesn't throw the ball over Dustin Pedroia's head on Saturday night [Sunday morning], the tenor of this report is obviously slightly different.)
  • Lest we get overrun with negativity, this would be a good time to note that Boston has the third-best record in all of baseball (Pittsburgh and St. Louis are each half a game ahead of them), the 3rd best run differential in baseball at 89 (St. Louis [122] and Detroit [90]) and the best record in the American League. They are also tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the biggest divisional lead (4 1/2 games) in baseball.
  • Seven games remain before the All Star break, and the Sox will play them all away, on the west coast, with four games at a weak Seattle, and finishing with three at a pretty good Oakland team. Meanwhile, the Orioles host the Rangers and Blue Jays, the Yankees host the Royals and Twins, and the Rays host the Twins and Astros. So their division competition is all at home all week. If they can take this 4 1/2 game lead, or even 3 1/2 of it, into the break, they will be in very good shape.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - On a runs created per out basis, Jonny Gomes (.429/.467/.786/1.252) was the best hitter on the Red Sox this week, but he only had 14 at-bats. Of course, one of those was a walk-off HR. Daniel Nava (.421/.421/.579/1.000) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.357/.500/.571/1.071) were also productive in less than ull-time appearances. The most raw production on the team came from Jacoby Ellsbury (.360/.407/.520/.927), who started each of the six games, as opposed to the aforementioned three players who started three or four games each. So it's a tough call, but based on the production per at-bat, and the dramatic walk-off HR, I'm going with Jonny Gomes as the player of the week.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Jon Lester had an excellent, and encouraging outing this week, allowing one run in seven innings. But John Lackey had two excellent outings, continuing to demonstrate that he's all the way back (and then some) from his Tommy John surgery. In two starts, Lackey went 15 innings and allowed just 13 baserunners (11 hits, two BB) and 3 runs, while striking out 15.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/8/2013
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit5.3(1)4.23(7)0.602(1)52354839-4
Boston5.15(2)4.15(5)0.598(2)543654360
Oakland4.69(7)3.98(2)0.574(3)513852371
Tampa Bay4.72(6)4.19(6)0.554(4)494049400
Texas4.36(9)4.06(3)0.533(5)474151374
Baltimore4.79(4)4.51(9)0.528(6)474249402
Cleveland4.85(3)4.67(11)0.517(7)464246420
Kansas City4.11(11)4.06(4)0.505(8)43424144-2
LA Angels4.76(5)4.73(13)0.502(9)44444345-1
NY Yankees3.95(12)3.95(1)0.5(10)444448404
Toronto4.6(8)4.67(11)0.493(11)434543450
Minnesota4.27(10)4.83(14)0.443(12)38473748-1
Chicago Sox3.67(15)4.38(8)0.42(13)36493451-2
Seattle3.78(14)4.51(10)0.42(14)375139492
Houston3.79(13)5.28(15)0.352(15)315832571


Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9765
Oakland9567
Texas9468
Detroit8973
Tampa Bay8973


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9765
Oakland9468
Detroit9369
Texas9072
Tampa Bay8973


Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Tampa Bay6(2)1.86(1)0.895(1)61610
NY Yankees5.43(3)3.14(3)0.731(2)52611
Detroit7(1)4.29(8)0.711(3)52520
Boston4.5(10)3(2)0.677(4)42420
Oakland4.83(6)3.5(5)0.644(5)42420
Seattle4.67(8)4.17(7)0.552(6)33421
LA Angels4.5(10)5.17(9)0.437(7)33421
Kansas City5.33(4)6.17(12)0.434(8)33330
Toronto4.57(9)5.43(10)0.422(9)34340
Baltimore2.67(14)3.17(4)0.422(10)3324-1
Texas4.83(6)5.83(11)0.415(11)24331
Cleveland5.17(5)7.17(15)0.355(12)24240
Chicago Sox2.33(15)3.67(6)0.304(13)24240
Minnesota3.57(13)6.29(13)0.262(14)2516-1
Houston3.86(12)6.86(14)0.259(15)25250

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