Monday, September 27, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 9/27/2010

Another 3-3 week as they sprint to the finish line...

  • So, if the Red Sox win their last six, and the Yankees lose their last seven, they'll have a one-game playoff for the Wild Card, right? Anyone know what the sports books in Las Vegas are offering as odds on that?
  • I don't want anyone to misinterpret the following comment, which is just an observation of a noteworthy confluence of events. I do NOT think that there should be more Wild Card teams, nor that the playoff teams should be selected differently. I don't have a problem with the division set up, nor do I think a third place team should be in the post-season, nor do I think that the Boston Red Sox have any right to a playoff spot this year. Not complaining, not whining - they weren't good enough, tough season, that's life. OK? No complaints. But I will note this interesting juxtaposition for all of the Theo-bashers crying that the Sox front office didn't put together a good team - the Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers each won on Saturday. They each finished the day with an 86-68 record. The Red Sox were playing out the string, having not yet been mathematically eliminated, but practically and essentially eliminated two weeks earlier. The Rangers clinched a division title and poured champagne.
  • The season would have been different without the injuries, but that hasn't been the sole source of problems. There are a lot of lost wins on the balance sheets of Messrs. Beckett, Lackey and, most notably, Papelbon.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Victor Martinez, who led the team with a .455/.571/.636/1.207 line, beats out honorable mention Ryan Kalish, who hit .400/.500/.600/1.100 and stole a couple of bases.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Nothing spectacular, but Jon Lester was outstanding, allowing no runs and just two hits in seven innings of work in New York.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/27/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.31(1)4.21(4)0.604(1)94629363-1
Tampa Bay5.08(2)4.07(3)0.6(2)936293620
Minnesota4.88(5)4.03(2)0.587(3)916492631
Texas4.9(4)4.24(5)0.566(4)88678768-1
Boston5.06(3)4.57(10)0.546(5)857086691
Chicago4.63(7)4.36(7)0.528(6)827383721
Oakland4.06(11)3.92(1)0.516(7)80757778-3
Detroit4.73(6)4.6(11)0.513(8)797680751
Toronto4.61(8)4.53(9)0.508(9)797680751
Los Angeles4.22(9)4.38(8)0.483(10)758075800
Cleveland3.96(12)4.69(12)0.424(11)66906591-1
Kansas City4.14(10)5.31(14)0.388(12)609563923
Baltimore3.81(13)4.95(13)0.382(13)599661942
Seattle3.17(14)4.26(6)0.368(14)579859962

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9765
Tampa Bay9765
Minnesota9666
Texas9171
Boston9072

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9765
Tampa Bay9765
Minnesota9666
Texas9171
Boston9072

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Detroit7.17(1)4.67(9)0.687(1)42511
Tampa Bay6(2)4.43(7)0.635(2)43430
Toronto4.17(8)3.17(2)0.623(3)42511
Texas5.14(4)4.29(6)0.583(4)43430
Boston4.83(6)4.83(10)0.5(5)33330
Baltimore4(10)4.17(4)0.481(6)3324-1
Chicago3(13)3.17(2)0.475(7)33421
Minnesota5.33(3)5.67(13)0.472(8)33330
Cleveland4.14(9)4.43(7)0.47(9)34340
Oakland4.71(7)5.14(11)0.46(10)34340
Los Angeles2.67(14)3(1)0.446(11)3324-1
New York5.14(4)6.57(14)0.39(12)34340
Seattle3.17(12)4.17(4)0.377(13)24240
Kansas City3.86(11)5.43(12)0.349(14)25250

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