So they came out of the All Star break with a 1-3 week that was one out away from matching the absolute worst-case scenario.
- As it was a short week, all the numbers are even less meaningful than the normal week numbers.
- The Red Sox pitching was 8th in the AL for the week, allowing 5.25 runs per game, but when you look at the pitching list, almost everyone has a pretty good ERA. How does that happen? This way - Tim Wakefield and Fernando Cabrera allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in 3 1/3 innings of work. The other twelve pitchers who took the mound allowed 11 runs (8 earned) in 34 2/3 innings of work.
- Of course, the offense was more like Wakefield and Cabrera (i.e., bad) than the rest of the staff, hence the 1-3 mark. The defense didn't help, either. The Rangers gift-wrapped the winning run for Boston on Saturday night, and the Sox returned the favor by giving the Rangers a couple of them on Sunday.
- One of the Sox strengths this season has been offense from the catcher's position. But. Since Varitek broke his foot, leaving the Red Sox with their top four catchers in the organization all on the DL, they've gotten a combined .103/.186/.103/.289 from the replacements. By way of comparison, NL pitchers are hitting .152/.187/.190/.377. Tough to score many runs when you've got that occupying one of your lineup spots.
- There is good news on the horizon. Buchholz and Beckett will return this week. Bowden's first 'pen appearance was an unqualified success. Victor Martinez is swinging a bat, and probably less than two weeks away. Pedroia's probably only three weeks away. Barring further injury, they should have their team back together, pretty much, before the middle of August. They're still very much in the race, certainly for the Wild Card, but even for the division.
- Red Sox Player of the Week - Kevin Youkilis, who hit .467/.471/.667/1.138, and knocked in the game tying and game winning runs in the 9th and 11th on Saturday, to come out of his slump. Too bad everyone else went into one...
- Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - John Lackey, who gave up only two runs in seven, both of which scored on weak flares, in a game in which his offense was facing Cliff Lee, leaving no room for error. They went on to win the game.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/19/2010
| | | | | | | | Projected | Actual | |
|
|---|
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck |
|
|---|
| New York | 5.36 | (1) | 4.08 | (2) | 0.623 | (1) | 57 | 34 | 58 | 33 | 1 |
|
| Tampa Bay | 5.09 | (4) | 3.93 | (1) | 0.616 | (2) | 56 | 35 | 55 | 36 | -1 |
|
| Texas | 5.15 | (3) | 4.24 | (4) | 0.588 | (3) | 54 | 38 | 53 | 39 | -1 |
|
| Boston | 5.35 | (2) | 4.66 | (10) | 0.562 | (4) | 52 | 40 | 52 | 40 | 0 |
|
| Minnesota | 4.7 | (5) | 4.26 | (6) | 0.544 | (5) | 50 | 42 | 49 | 43 | -1 |
|
| Chicago | 4.54 | (8) | 4.25 | (5) | 0.53 | (6) | 48 | 43 | 50 | 41 | 2 |
|
| Oakland | 4.23 | (11) | 4.1 | (3) | 0.514 | (7) | 47 | 45 | 46 | 46 | -1 |
|
| Toronto | 4.58 | (6) | 4.48 | (8) | 0.51 | (8) | 47 | 45 | 47 | 45 | 0 |
|
| Detroit | 4.54 | (7) | 4.57 | (9) | 0.498 | (9) | 45 | 45 | 48 | 42 | 3 |
|
| Los Angeles | 4.54 | (9) | 4.73 | (11) | 0.481 | (10) | 46 | 49 | 50 | 45 | 4 |
|
| Kansas City | 4.36 | (10) | 5.02 | (13) | 0.436 | (11) | 40 | 51 | 39 | 52 | -1 |
|
| Cleveland | 4.14 | (12) | 4.87 | (12) | 0.426 | (12) | 39 | 53 | 38 | 54 | -1 |
|
| Seattle | 3.38 | (14) | 4.3 | (7) | 0.391 | (13) | 36 | 56 | 36 | 56 | 0 |
|
| Baltimore | 3.62 | (13) | 5.31 | (14) | 0.331 | (14) | 30 | 61 | 29 | 62 | -1 |
|
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
| New York | 103 | 59 |
|
| Tampa Bay | 98 | 64 |
|
| Texas | 93 | 69 |
|
| Boston | 92 | 70 |
|
| Chicago | 89 | 73 |
|
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
| New York | 102 | 60 |
|
| Tampa Bay | 99 | 63 |
|
| Texas | 94 | 68 |
|
| Boston | 91 | 71 |
|
| Chicago | 88 | 74 |
|
Standings for the week
| | | | | | | | Projected | Actual | |
|
|---|
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck |
|
|---|
| Toronto | 5.67 | (5) | 1.67 | (1) | 0.904 | (1) | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
|
| Cleveland | 5.25 | (6) | 2 | (2) | 0.854 | (2) | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
|
| Texas | 5.25 | (6) | 2.75 | (3) | 0.766 | (3) | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
|
| Oakland | 6.67 | (1) | 4 | (5) | 0.718 | (4) | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
|
| Los Angeles | 4.75 | (9) | 3.25 | (4) | 0.667 | (5) | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
|
| Minnesota | 6 | (4) | 5 | (7) | 0.583 | (6) | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
|
| Tampa Bay | 6.33 | (2) | 6.33 | (12) | 0.5 | (7) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
|
| New York | 6.33 | (2) | 6.33 | (12) | 0.5 | (7) | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
|
| Chicago | 5 | (8) | 6 | (11) | 0.417 | (9) | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 |
|
| Seattle | 3.25 | (11) | 4.75 | (6) | 0.333 | (10) | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
|
| Kansas City | 4 | (10) | 6.67 | (14) | 0.282 | (11) | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 |
|
| Boston | 2.75 | (12) | 5.25 | (8) | 0.234 | (12) | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
|
| Detroit | 2 | (13) | 5.25 | (8) | 0.146 | (13) | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 |
|
| Baltimore | 1.67 | (14) | 5.67 | (10) | 0.096 | (14) | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
|
Labels: MLB, pythagorean, Red Sox
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