Monday, July 19, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 7/19/2010

So they came out of the All Star break with a 1-3 week that was one out away from matching the absolute worst-case scenario.

  • As it was a short week, all the numbers are even less meaningful than the normal week numbers.
  • The Red Sox pitching was 8th in the AL for the week, allowing 5.25 runs per game, but when you look at the pitching list, almost everyone has a pretty good ERA. How does that happen? This way - Tim Wakefield and Fernando Cabrera allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in 3 1/3 innings of work. The other twelve pitchers who took the mound allowed 11 runs (8 earned) in 34 2/3 innings of work.
  • Of course, the offense was more like Wakefield and Cabrera (i.e., bad) than the rest of the staff, hence the 1-3 mark. The defense didn't help, either. The Rangers gift-wrapped the winning run for Boston on Saturday night, and the Sox returned the favor by giving the Rangers a couple of them on Sunday.
  • One of the Sox strengths this season has been offense from the catcher's position. But. Since Varitek broke his foot, leaving the Red Sox with their top four catchers in the organization all on the DL, they've gotten a combined .103/.186/.103/.289 from the replacements. By way of comparison, NL pitchers are hitting .152/.187/.190/.377. Tough to score many runs when you've got that occupying one of your lineup spots.
  • There is good news on the horizon. Buchholz and Beckett will return this week. Bowden's first 'pen appearance was an unqualified success. Victor Martinez is swinging a bat, and probably less than two weeks away. Pedroia's probably only three weeks away. Barring further injury, they should have their team back together, pretty much, before the middle of August. They're still very much in the race, certainly for the Wild Card, but even for the division.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Kevin Youkilis, who hit .467/.471/.667/1.138, and knocked in the game tying and game winning runs in the 9th and 11th on Saturday, to come out of his slump. Too bad everyone else went into one...
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - John Lackey, who gave up only two runs in seven, both of which scored on weak flares, in a game in which his offense was facing Cliff Lee, leaving no room for error. They went on to win the game.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/19/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.36(1)4.08(2)0.623(1)573458331
Tampa Bay5.09(4)3.93(1)0.616(2)56355536-1
Texas5.15(3)4.24(4)0.588(3)54385339-1
Boston5.35(2)4.66(10)0.562(4)524052400
Minnesota4.7(5)4.26(6)0.544(5)50424943-1
Chicago4.54(8)4.25(5)0.53(6)484350412
Oakland4.23(11)4.1(3)0.514(7)47454646-1
Toronto4.58(6)4.48(8)0.51(8)474547450
Detroit4.54(7)4.57(9)0.498(9)454548423
Los Angeles4.54(9)4.73(11)0.481(10)464950454
Kansas City4.36(10)5.02(13)0.436(11)40513952-1
Cleveland4.14(12)4.87(12)0.426(12)39533854-1
Seattle3.38(14)4.3(7)0.391(13)365636560
Baltimore3.62(13)5.31(14)0.331(14)30612962-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York10359
Tampa Bay9864
Texas9369
Boston9270
Chicago8973

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10260
Tampa Bay9963
Texas9468
Boston9171
Chicago8874

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Toronto5.67(5)1.67(1)0.904(1)30300
Cleveland5.25(6)2(2)0.854(2)31401
Texas5.25(6)2.75(3)0.766(3)31310
Oakland6.67(1)4(5)0.718(4)21301
Los Angeles4.75(9)3.25(4)0.667(5)31310
Minnesota6(4)5(7)0.583(6)22311
Tampa Bay6.33(2)6.33(12)0.5(7)2112-1
New York6.33(2)6.33(12)0.5(7)21210
Chicago5(8)6(11)0.417(9)2213-1
Seattle3.25(11)4.75(6)0.333(10)13130
Kansas City4(10)6.67(14)0.282(11)1203-1
Boston2.75(12)5.25(8)0.234(12)13130
Detroit2(13)5.25(8)0.146(13)1304-1
Baltimore1.67(14)5.67(10)0.096(14)03030

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