Monday, July 12, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 7/12/2010

Into the break on a 2-4 week that was disappointing, but would have been more disappointing if it hadn't been so obviously predictable and understandable.

  • Not everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. But enough has gone wrong to make their current position (five out in the east, three out in the Wild Card) both understandable and not that bad. This remains, when healthy, a good-to-great team, and if they get healthy fairly soon, still has an excellent shot of playing post-season baseball. And once the post-season starts, of course, anything can happen.
  • Through the All Star break, over 15% of the Red Sox at-bats have gone to their bench players who started the season with them, and over 12% more have gone to players who weren't with them when the season started. Less than 72% of the at-bats have gone to their starting offensive nine. By way of contrast, it looks to me as if the Rays have gotten about 80% of their at-bats from their starters, and the Yankees nearly 82%.
  • The Red Sox have had 17 starts go to other than their top five starters. The Yankees have had two. The Rays have had none.
  • If the Red Sox miss the post-season, the timing of their series with Tampa will have a lot to do with it. The Rays swept a four game series in April when the Red Sox were without two starting outfielders but hadn't replaced them on the roster, so they were short-handed. And they swept a three-game series in Tampa when they faced Boston's 5-6-7 starters with their 1-2-3, while the Sox were also missing their left fielder, second baseman, 1st and 2nd string catchers AND Youkilis went out in early in a game. If Boston were 2-5 in those two series instead of 0-7, they'd have a one-game lead in the Wild Card race right now instead of being three games back.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Mike Cameron, who hit .429/.471/.857/1.328 with two HR on the week, beats out David Ortiz, who had a higher OBP, but less power and no defensive value.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - The best starter was Lester, and I've no objection to giving the award pretty much every week, but his one outing was good, not great, as he allowed two runs in only six innings of work. The rest of the starters were, of course, worse. So this becomes a bullpen week, if there's a candidate, which there is. Daniel Bard gave up only one hit and no walks while striking out three in three innings of work over two games, and he's the pitcher of the week this week.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/12/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York5.33(2)4(2)0.628(1)553356321
Tampa Bay5.05(4)3.85(1)0.621(2)55335434-1
Texas5.15(3)4.31(7)0.581(3)51375038-1
Boston5.47(1)4.64(10)0.575(4)513751370
Minnesota4.64(6)4.23(5)0.542(5)48404642-2
Chicago4.52(9)4.17(4)0.536(6)474049382
Detroit4.66(5)4.53(8)0.513(7)444248384
Oakland4.15(11)4.1(3)0.505(8)45444346-2
Toronto4.54(7)4.57(9)0.497(9)444544450
Los Angeles4.53(8)4.79(11)0.474(10)434847444
Kansas City4.38(10)4.97(12)0.442(11)394939490
Cleveland4.09(12)5(13)0.409(12)36523454-2
Seattle3.39(14)4.28(6)0.394(13)355335530
Baltimore3.68(13)5.3(14)0.34(14)30582959-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York10359
Tampa Bay9963
Boston9468
Texas9270
Chicago9171

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10260
Tampa Bay10062
Boston9468
Texas9369
Chicago8973

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Chicago6.71(1)1.86(2)0.913(1)61701
New York4.71(7)1.71(1)0.864(2)61610
Detroit6.67(2)4.83(5)0.643(3)42511
Tampa Bay4.71(7)3.86(3)0.591(4)43612
Oakland4.83(6)4(4)0.586(5)4224-2
Boston5.5(5)4.83(5)0.559(6)3324-1
Baltimore5.57(4)5(8)0.549(7)43430
Toronto5.67(3)5.83(11)0.487(8)33330
Texas4.43(9)5.14(9)0.432(9)3425-1
Cleveland4.14(11)5.29(10)0.39(10)3425-1
Minnesota4.33(10)6.17(12)0.344(11)24240
Kansas City4(12)6.17(12)0.312(12)24331
Seattle2.43(13)4.86(7)0.22(13)2516-1
Los Angeles2(14)6.29(14)0.11(14)16160

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