Monday, July 05, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 7/5/2010

A 3-2 week with a couple of missed opportunities, and the continued swelling of the disabled list...

  • The injury stacks have officially become ridiculous. When the season starts, a team needs to have extra players at every position, because injuries happen. You need to be prepared for them. But when three of your top four outfielders are simultanously on the DL, that's tough to prepare for. And that's nothing compared to what's happened at catcher. They had two Major League backup catchers on their AAA roster in Pawtucket, and they both got hurt. And then their starting catcher went down. And then Varitek went down, too, leaving them with the top four catchers in the organization injured. There's no amount of rational preparation that gets a team ready to handle that.
  • I don't get the Eric Patterson move. I didn't get it when they made it a week ago, now having watched him start four games this week, I really don't get it. We're talking about a 27 year-old with a career .223/.302/.336/.638 line (OPS+ of 71) who started three games in left field this week. If there's anything about Eric Patterson that cries out "Major Leaguer" or even "adequate injury back-up" it utterly escapes me.
  • I didn't get the Kevin Cash move when they made it on Thursday. Friday's addition of Varitek to the DL explained it.
  • I have a very bad feeling about this week. Frankly, taking 2 out of 3 in Tampa would exceed my expectations, and taking 1 out of 3 would be almost a relief. I very much fear a sweep. I'm not predicting it, but I don't much care for any of the pitching match-ups. How bad are they? The best one may be tonight, Matsuzaka vs. Garza.
  • How much can you expect from a lineup with Eric Patterson, Kevin Cash, Darnell McDonald and Bill Hall sprinkled throughout?
  • Red Sox Player of the Week: - J.D. Drew was hot, hitting .417/.533/1.000/1.533, but only played in four of the five games (15 PA). Going to go with David Ortiz, who hit .333/.455/.722/1.177 in 22 PA.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week: - And the winner is, again, Jon Lester, who has been dominant since the third week of the season, much as he was for most of 2009. Since April 18, he's started 14 games with an ERA of 1.84 in 98 innings of work. He's allowed either zero (4) or one (5) runs in nine of those 14 starts, and allowed more than two runs only twice. This week, it was one start, one run in seven innings, with seven more strikeouts.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 7/5/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Tampa Bay5.07(4)3.85(1)0.623(1)51304833-3
New York5.38(2)4.2(4)0.612(2)503150310
Texas5.21(3)4.23(5)0.594(3)483348330
Boston5.46(1)4.62(10)0.576(4)473549332
Minnesota4.66(6)4.09(2)0.56(5)46364438-2
Los Angeles4.74(5)4.67(11)0.507(6)434146383
Detroit4.51(7)4.51(9)0.5(7)404043373
Oakland4.1(11)4.11(3)0.499(8)414241420
Toronto4.46(8)4.48(8)0.498(9)414241420
Chicago4.33(10)4.38(7)0.495(10)404042382
Kansas City4.4(9)4.88(12)0.453(11)37453646-1
Cleveland4.09(12)4.98(13)0.411(12)33483249-1
Seattle3.47(14)4.23(5)0.41(13)334834471
Baltimore3.52(13)5.32(14)0.319(14)26552556-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York10062
Boston9765
Tampa Bay9666
Texas9666
Los Angeles8973

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10062
Tampa Bay9963
Texas9666
Boston9567
Minnesota8973

Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Oakland4.67(4)3(2)0.692(1)42420
Los Angeles4.33(6)3(2)0.662(2)4233-1
Cleveland3.14(13)2.43(1)0.616(3)43521
Tampa Bay5.83(1)4.67(8)0.601(4)42420
Seattle4.33(6)3.67(4)0.576(5)33330
Minnesota5.29(2)4.71(9)0.552(6)4334-1
Boston5(3)5(10)0.5(7)32320
Chicago3.67(10)3.67(4)0.5(7)33330
Texas3.5(11)3.83(6)0.458(9)3324-1
New York4.5(5)5.17(12)0.437(10)33330
Detroit4.33(6)5.17(12)0.42(11)33330
Kansas City3.17(12)4.17(7)0.377(12)24422
Baltimore3.83(9)5.17(12)0.367(13)24240
Toronto3.14(13)5(10)0.3(14)2516-1

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