Monday Pythagorean Report - 6/28/2010

I said last week that this would be a tough one. In some ways, it turned out to be tougher than I even expected...

• Of course, I expected it to be a tough week because they were facing both Ubaldo Jimenez and Tim Lincecum. They went on, of course, to beat both of them¹. I would not have bet that before the week started without getting really good odds.
• When I say it was tougher, I'm referring, of course, to the injuries.
  
  • To start with the least serious, there doesn't seem to be much concern about Buchholz, who slightly hyper-extended his knee running the bases and is not expected to miss a start. It caused one tough afternoon, as the bullpen had to cover the last eight innings of Saturday's game, but doesn't look like a long-term issue.
  • Next is the broken left thumb on Victor Martinez' hand. Treatment and recovery times aren't known yet, but there's a chance that he won't have to be DL'ed. If he is, it is unlikely to be much more than 3-4 weeks. The concern there is that they don't appear to have a good option to back up Varitek during that stretch if a DL stint is necessary.
  • Finally, the big one is obviously Dustin Pedroia. He's one of the best two or three players on the team, a player who gives them excellent defense and outstanding positional offense at an important defensive position. And he's going to be gone for an extended period of time. Anything under 6-8 weeks would be unexpectedly positive.
  They've got to circle the wagons and survive for the next 40-50 games, which won't be easy. I suspect that they both can and will stay competitive for this stretch, but it's going to be tough to put on a great run right now and build a cushion in the division.
• Thanks for nothin', Mr. Broxton.
• So the Red Sox are potentially looking at adding Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia to their club at or around the trading deadlines. Anyone else going to acquire that much talent late in the season? I don't think so...
• So, during their 3-3 week, the Sox lost one game in the standings to the 4-2 Yankees, who now lead the AL East by two games. But they gained one game against the 2-4 and no-longer-looking-unbeatable Rays, and, for the first time since the first week of the season, are in an "if the season ended today" playoff spot. The Sox' lead in the Wild Card race is one game over Tampa and 3 1/2 over the Angels.
• I hate interleague play. I'm glad that it's over.
• So twice in the last three Saturdays they've had a starter emergency, losing one just before game time or after only one inning of work. And twice the bullpen and offense have covered the emergency to come out with wins.
• The "summing up baseball in one word - youneverknow" stat of the week: Boston Red Sox pitchers, on this six game trip through the NL West, hit .364/.429/.455/.883 in 16 plate appearances. DH David Ortiz, playing as a pinch-hitter and 1B-man, hit .143/.200/.357/.557 in 15 plate appearances.
• Red Sox Player of the Week - In his last action for a while, Dustin Pedroia was clearly the player of the week, albeit in only three full games. He hit .462/.588/1.231/1.819 in his 17 plate appearances, a performance that was so robust that we can pad it with 10 hitless PAs and he'd still have hit .261/.370/.696/1.066 and been worthy of Player of the Week honors.
• Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Jon Lester was excellent in defeat on Tuesday, allowing Colorado only one run in six innings before being pulled for a pinch-hitter, then dominated the Giants, outpitching - badly outpitching - the two-time defending NL Cy Young winner, Lincecum. For the week, he allowed only two runs in 15 innings pitched, with more strikeouts (15) than hits (11) and walks (2) combined.

¹ - Yes, they lost the game that Jimenez started. I don't care - they beat him. They scored 6 runs against him in 5 2/3, knocked him out before the end of the sixth, and took a one-run lead into the ninth. Yes, Papelbon blew the game, but they beat Jimenez.

AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/28/2010

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Tampa Bay	5.01	(4)	3.79	(1)	0.626	(1)	47	28	44	31	-3
New York	5.45	(2)	4.12	(3)	0.626	(2)	47	28	47	28	0
Texas	5.35	(3)	4.27	(5)	0.602	(3)	45	30	46	29	1
Boston	5.49	(1)	4.6	(10)	0.581	(4)	45	32	46	31	1
Minnesota	4.6	(6)	4.03	(2)	0.561	(5)	42	33	41	34	-1
Toronto	4.58	(7)	4.43	(8)	0.515	(6)	39	37	40	36	1
Detroit	4.53	(8)	4.46	(9)	0.507	(7)	38	36	40	34	2
Los Angeles	4.77	(5)	4.79	(11)	0.498	(8)	39	39	43	35	4
Chicago	4.38	(10)	4.43	(7)	0.494	(9)	37	37	39	35	2
Oakland	4.05	(12)	4.19	(4)	0.484	(10)	37	40	37	40	0
Kansas City	4.5	(9)	4.93	(12)	0.458	(11)	35	41	32	44	-3
Cleveland	4.18	(11)	5.22	(13)	0.4	(12)	30	44	27	47	-3
Seattle	3.4	(14)	4.28	(6)	0.396	(13)	30	45	31	44	1
Baltimore	3.49	(13)	5.33	(14)	0.316	(14)	24	51	23	52	-1

Top 5 projections (using current winning %)

New York	102	60
Texas	99	63
Boston	97	65
Tampa Bay	95	67
Minnesota	89	73

Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)

New York	101	61
Tampa Bay	98	64
Texas	98	64
Boston	95	67
Minnesota	90	72

Standings for the week

							Projected		Actual
	R/G	(rank)	RA/G	(rank)	Pythagorean	(rank)	W	L	W	L	Luck
Texas	7.67	(1)	3.5	(6)	0.808	(1)	5	1	5	1	0
Chicago	5	(6)	3	(3)	0.718	(2)	4	2	5	1	1
Oakland	4.67	(7)	3.17	(4)	0.67	(3)	4	2	3	3	-1
Kansas City	3.67	(9)	2.67	(1)	0.642	(4)	4	2	3	3	-1
Los Angeles	5.17	(5)	3.83	(7)	0.633	(5)	4	2	4	2	0
Boston	5.5	(3)	4.83	(9)	0.559	(6)	3	3	3	3	0
Seattle	3.33	(11)	3.17	(4)	0.523	(7)	3	3	3	3	0
Baltimore	6.17	(2)	6	(13)	0.513	(8)	3	3	4	2	1
Tampa Bay	2.67	(12)	2.67	(1)	0.5	(9)	3	3	2	4	-1
New York	5.5	(3)	5.67	(11)	0.486	(10)	3	3	4	2	1
Detroit	4.33	(8)	5.83	(12)	0.367	(11)	2	4	2	4	0
Minnesota	2.67	(12)	4.67	(8)	0.264	(12)	2	4	1	5	-1
Cleveland	3.67	(9)	6.67	(14)	0.251	(13)	2	4	1	5	-1
Toronto	2.67	(12)	5.17	(10)	0.23	(14)	1	5	2	4	1