Monday, June 14, 2010

Monday Pythagorean Report - 6/14/2010

Look, it isn't that a 4-3 week is awful, and there's nothing embarrassing about 2-1 vs. the Phillies (and Cole Hamels is a good pitcher), but 2-2 in Cleveland just isn't good enough, not when you're in third place and trying to make up ground...

  • One of the local radio personalities made a comment on Thursday morning that Wednesday's 11-0 loss to Cleveland "felt like two losses." Poppycock. Sometimes, you get a great game thrown against you, and that's what happened. Masterson was masterful, and the eight runs given up by the bullpen in the 8th inning were utterly irrelevant to the final outcome. If you're going to have a shutout, and a game in which you allow 11, you might as well do them both the same night. I'd much rather lose 11-0 than 11-10 one night and 1-0 the next.
  • The real problem in Cleveland wasn't Wednesday, it was Thursday. If you take a 5-0 lead with Jon Lester on the mound, that's a game you should win. I wanted them to beat Masterson on Wednesday, but at the end of the night, it was just one bad game, and you have those. Thursday was the one that hurt, as they gave up the big lead early, and then the small lead late, as they took a lead in the top of the ninth only to lose it in the bottom.
  • The "you can describe baseball in one word - youneverknow" stat of the week: the Red Sox were 0-2 in the games started by Lester and Buchholz, 4-1 in the other 5.
  • As great a story as it was when Darnell McDonald made his Red Sox debut, it was topped on Saturday. McDonald had been in the majors before, had been drafted and made his way through the minor for years. What happened with Daniel Nava is almost inconceivable. Cut from a college team, cut from an independent league team, undrafted out of high school, undrafted out of college, his rights purchased by Boston for $1, and yet all he's done, everywhere he's been, is hit. Everywhere. A 27-year old rookie, he finally gets a Major League at-bat because two outfielders are out with broken ribs caused by collisions with the third baseman and a highly-touted prospect isn't quite ready, he hits the first pitch he sees in the major leagues for a grand slam that erases a one-run deficit. Just an unbelievable story. Closer to a real-life Rocky scenario than anyone since Jim Morris.
  • A word of praise for Scott Atchison. There's obviously nothing special about two runs in three innings, but in the circumstances - making his first major league start with about 15 minutes of warning, matching his longest career appearance - it was all that they had any right to ask for.
  • It's easy to claim, after a game, that you "had a feeling," or "knew that was going to happen." I was not surprised, for example, by how well Justin Masterson pitched. I had a feeling that game was going to go that way. But honesty compels me to confess that a) I KNEW they were going to win Thursday after they got up 5-0, and b) I thought Saturday was likely unwinnable when I saw Scott Atchison take the mound in the top of the first. I was obviously wrong on both.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - In six games, J.D. Drew hit .333/.545/.667/1.212 with one HR and six walks.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - The best performance of the week was Daisuke Matsuzaka's 8 scoreless inning, 5 K/2 BB/4 H victory over the Indians.



AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/14/2010
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Tampa Bay5.29(3)3.75(1)0.653(1)41224023-1
New York5.63(1)4(3)0.652(2)41224023-1
Minnesota4.68(7)3.89(2)0.584(3)37263627-1
Boston5.43(2)4.69(9)0.566(4)372837280
Texas5.1(4)4.48(7)0.559(5)352835280
Toronto4.77(5)4.42(6)0.534(6)343034300
Los Angeles4.74(6)4.74(10)0.5(7)333336303
Detroit4.37(9)4.4(5)0.497(8)313133292
Oakland4.02(12)4.28(4)0.471(9)313432331
Chicago4.31(10)4.77(11)0.453(10)283428340
Kansas City4.45(8)5.11(13)0.437(11)28362737-1
Cleveland4.23(11)5.02(12)0.422(12)26362537-1
Seattle3.51(13)4.56(8)0.383(13)243924390
Baltimore3.25(14)5.25(14)0.294(14)19441746-2
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Tampa Bay10359
New York10359
Minnesota9369
Boston9270
Texas9072
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Tampa Bay10557
New York10557
Minnesota9468
Boston9270
Texas9072
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas6.57(2)3(2)0.808(1)6152-1
Chicago5.33(6)2.83(1)0.761(2)5142-1
New York6.83(1)4(5)0.727(3)42511
Cleveland5.71(4)3.71(3)0.687(4)5243-1
Tampa Bay6.17(3)4.83(10)0.61(5)4233-1
Boston5.57(5)4.43(8)0.604(6)43430
Los Angeles4.71(8)3.86(4)0.591(7)43521
Minnesota4.67(9)4.17(6)0.552(8)33330
Oakland3.86(11)4.29(7)0.452(9)3425-1
Detroit4(10)4.67(9)0.43(10)33421
Kansas City5.33(6)6.67(14)0.399(11)24331
Baltimore3.17(12)6.33(12)0.22(12)15150
Seattle2.57(13)6.57(13)0.152(13)16251
Toronto1.67(14)6.17(11)0.084(14)15150

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